S Pacific: TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA (TC 11P)

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JAN 2008 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 22:36:36 S Lon : 175:24:35 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 3.1 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -75.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

10/0822 UTC 22.1S 175.1W T3.0/3.0 ELISA -- South Pacific Ocean

[Crostorm]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JAN 2008 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 22:49:59 S Lon : 175:16:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.8mb/ 47.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.1 3.3 4.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -67.8C Cloud Region Temp : -71.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Coredesat]

For some reason WPAC Floater 1 was taken off this and put on 90W. They should put WPAC Floater 2 on this at some point, I would think.

[Chacor]

WTPS01 NFFN 101200
STORM WARNING 005 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 10/1314 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA CENTRE [987HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 5 WEST AT 101200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.9 SOUTH 175.5 WEST AT 101200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO TURN
AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 050 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.5S 173.8W AT 110000 UTC
AND NEAR 25.6S 171.6W AT 111200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 004.

[KWT]

Looks a pretty good system with a deep mass of convection seemingly close to the center and Sat.estimates are increasing at a decent clip it seems though the forecasters do have th system weakening again in about 24-48hrs time, will be interesting to see what happens.

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 101200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/1425 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA CENTRE [987HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.9 SOUTH 175.5 WEST AT 101200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT
EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 06
KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO TURN AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

ORGANISATION GOOD PAST 12 HOURS BUT SHEAR EVIDENT. SLIGHT DEEPENING
PERSISTED PAST 12 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT CENTRE WARMING.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO NORTHEAST.
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE, EASTWARD-MOVING, UPPER TROUGH INCREASING
SHEAR OVER SYSTEM. ELISA MOVING INTO COOLER SSTS WHICH WILL HELP
DECAY. DVORAK BASED ON 0.7 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT 3.0.
PT=3.0, AND MET=3.0, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH WEAKENING.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID 110000UTC NEAR 24.5S 173.8W MOV SE 11KT WITH 50KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID 111200UTC NEAR 25.6S 171.6W MOV ESE 11KT WITH 40KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID 120000UTC NEAR 24.5S 172.1W MOV NNW 06KT WITH 35KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID 121200UTC NEAR 26.9S 173.8W MOV SSW 11KT WITH 35KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC ELISA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 102030UTC.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JAN 2008 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 23:27:06 S Lon : 174:45:05 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.3mb/ 53.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.1mb

Center Temp : -54.0C Cloud Region Temp : -51.2C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

***************************************************

[HurricaneRobert]

This looks really nice. JTWC should change its forecasts for a much stronger system. Is that a pinhole eye or just a break in the clouds?

[HURAKAN]

That in the middle is a towering cloud.

[HurricaneRobert]

But you can see it in the IR view.

[HURAKAN]

Yep, in this image it looks like an eye. Very ragged.

[HURAKAN]

10/2022 UTC 23.8S 174.0W T3.5/3.5 ELISA -- South Pacific Ocean

[KWT]

Looks good still but I do see what they mean by the shear with most of the deep convection on the southern side of the center. Given the small size of the CDO unless a pinhole eye forms I don't think thats an eye to be honest.

[HURAKAN]

It looked better when I posted the image above. Now shear seems to be taking a heavy toll on the system. Probably it's downhill from now.

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Shear has increased dramatically it seems. Next warning should be out in about two and a half hours.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/2352 UTC 2008 UTC.

***CORRECTION TO FORECAST POSITIONS AND MOVEMENT ********
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA CENTRE [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.0 SOUTH 173.9 WEST AT 102100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT
EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 12
KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS BUT EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST.

DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT CENTRE WARMING. AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT IS
INCREASING SHEAR OVER SYSTEM WHILST ELISA IS MOVING INTO COOLER SSTS
WHICH WILL HELP DECAY. DVORAK BASED ON 0.8 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT 3.5. PT=3.5, AND MET=3.5, THUS T3.5/3.5/D2.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH WEAKENING.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID 111200UTC NEAR 24.9S 172.1W MOV E 10KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
24HRS VALID 120000UTC NEAR 24.8S 171.1W MOV ENE 03KT WITH 30KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID 121200UTC NEAR 24.4S 172.6W MOV WNW 07KT WITH 30KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC ELISA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 110230UTC.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 11/0240 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA CENTRE [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.1 SOUTH 173.1 WEST AT 110000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT
EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THE SAME INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE COMMENCING
WEAKENING.

DEEP CONVECTION IS QUICKLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EASTERN ABOUT CENTRE
WARMING. AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT IS INCREASING SHEAR OVER SYSTEM WHILST
ELISA IS MOVING INTO COOLER SSTS WHICH WILL HELP DECAY. DVORAK BASED
ON 0.8 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT 3.5. PT=3.5, AND MET=3.5,
THUS T3.5/3.5/3.0 6HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST
TRACK WITH WEAKENING.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID 111200UTC NEAR 24.9S 172.1W MOV ESE 10KT WITH 40KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID 120000UTC NEAR 24.8S 170.7W MOV NNE 02KT WITH 30KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC ELISA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 110830UTC.

[P.K.]

WTPS11 NFFN 111200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 11/1254 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL LOW FORMERLY TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA CENTRE [997HPA] WAS
LOCATED NEAR 24.7 SOUTH 170.2 WEST AT 111200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED
ON HR MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. LOW MOVING EAST ABOUT 12
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
30 KNOTS.

LLCC EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 1.25 DEGREES SE OF LLCC.
DVORAK BASED ON SHEAR OF 1.25 DEG YIELDING A DT 1.5. PT=1.0, AND
MET=2.0, THUS T1.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS.


THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL LOW
FORMERLY TC ELISA.

[KWT]

Not surprising really P.K the system fell apart last night as the much heavier shear came in and blew any convction onto the southern side.