S Pacific: TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA (TC 11P)

[Coredesat]

WWPS21 NFFN 072100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 07/2300 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [1007HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.9S 175.5W AT
072100UTC AND IS SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OSERVATION. SST AROUND
28-29 DEGREE CELCIUS.
CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION MORE EVIDENT FROM SURFACE TO 250 HPA. 07F LIES IN A LOW
TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LLCC PARTLY EXPOSED. GLOBAL
MODELS [AVN,EC,GFS] PICKING UP THE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION
AND MOVING 07F SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

This isn't an invest, but it's the system near 180 in this image:

[Coredesat]

WWPS21 NFFN 080600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 08/0853 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.1S 176.5W AT
080600UTC AND IS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OSERVATION. SST AROUND
28-29 DEGREE CELCIUS.
CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR THE LAST 6-12 HOURS WITH
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MORE EVIDENT AT THE SFC. 07F LIES IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LLCC PARTLY EXPOSED. GLOBAL MODELS
[AVN,EC,GFS] PREDICT SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE MODELS EXPECT 07F TO
MOVE SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN
THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

Still not an invest.

[wyq614]

现在是了，中国论坛都在等待埃丽莎的到来。

Now it is. Chinese trackers are all waiting for the arrival of Elisa.

[Coredesat]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.2S 175.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF SUVA, FIJI. RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY AND
A 080756Z SSMI/S 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION DIS-
PLACED TO THE SOUTH. A 080903Z ASCAT PASS ALSO REVEALS A TIGHTLY
WOUND LLCC WITH 25 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AT THE CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY PREVENTING CONVECTION
FROM FORMING DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE WELL-
DEFINED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Naked!!!

[HURAKAN]

NOTHING NEW!

[HURAKAN]

09/0822 UTC 19.8S 175.8W T1.5/1.5 97P -- South Pacific Ocean

[Coredesat]

WWPS21 NFFN 090900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 09/0915 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.7S 175.6W AT
090600UTC AND REMAINS SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OSERVATION. SST AROUND
28-29 DEGREE CELCIUS. CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE IN THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT BUT HAS NOT INCREASED MUCH IN THE LAST 6-12 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS SHEARED WITH AN EXPOSED LLCC. 07F LIES IN A MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,EC,GFS] PREDICT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND AGREE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[Coredesat]

WWPS21 NFFN 092300
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 09/2309 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [996HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21.2S 175.6W AT
092100UTC AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OSERVATION. SST
AROUND 28-29 DEGREE CELCIUS. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST
6-12 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ORGANISED WITH 0.35
BANDING ON THE LOG SPIRAL. 07F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. MOST GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,EC,GFS] PREDICT SOME MORE
INTENSIFICATION AND GRADUALLY MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK.

POTENTIAL FOR THE 07F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

--------------------------

WTPS21 PGTW 091330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.6S 176.1W TO 23.7S 174.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 091200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.1S 175.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.4N
175.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1S 175.6W, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI. A 090940Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-ORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090528Z QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AT THE STORM CENTER. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT HAD BEEN INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101330Z.
//

[P.K.]

Gale warning issued for 07F.

WOPS01 NFFN 092100
GALE WARNING 001 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 09/2145 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [996HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2S 175.6E AT
092100UTC MOVING SOUTH AT 5 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS
EXPECT WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UPTO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 30 TO 150
MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SECTORS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING.

[Coredesat]

This is now in NRL's tcdat folders as 11P.NONAME.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/MY/091321Z JAN 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 175.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 175.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.6S 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.9S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.9S 172.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.4S 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 175.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
385 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
CURRENT STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND NFFN. THESE FIXES
JUSTIFY AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THE STORM IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THIS FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE STORM TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER
WATER WITH LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS WILL PREVENT ANY
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DISSIPATION OF
TC 11P BY TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 091321Z JAN 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 091330) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.



10/0252 UTC 21.9S 175.7W T2.5/2.5 11P -- South Pacific Ocean

Pretty compact system.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/0201 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [994HPA], WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4 SOUTH 175.5
WEST AT 100000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED HR MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
DECREASE FURTHER AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST.

LLCC IS OBSCURED AND CLOUD ORGANISATION AROUND THE SYSTEM HAS NOT
IMPROVED MUCH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN
YIELDING A DT 2.5, PT=3.0, AND MET=2.5, THUS T2.5/3.0/2.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK AT THE SAME TIME
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 07F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
110800UTC.

[HurricaneRobert]

Woah. They have this on the East Pacific floater.

[wyq614]

它好像不太可能被命名

It seems unlikely to be named...

[P.K.]

WTPS01 NFFN 100600 CCA
GALE WARNING 003 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 10/0619 UTC 2008 UTC.

CORRECTED VERSION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA CENTRE [992HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21
DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 8 WEST AT 100300 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.5 SOUTH 175.8 WEST AT 100300 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.1S 173.1W AT 101500 UTC
AND NEAR 25.5S 170.5W AT 110300 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 002.

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 100900 CCA
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/0925 UTC 2008 UTC.

CORRECTION TO POSITION AND MOVEMENT...

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA CENTRE [992HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.1 SOUTH 175.7 WEST AT 100600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT
EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH ABOUT 06 KNOTS
BUT EXPECTED TO TURN AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

ORGANISATION GOOD PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS. SLIGHT DEEPENING PAST 6 HOURS.
DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT LLCC WARMING DUE DIURNAL INFLUENCE. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO EAST AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHEAST UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO NORTHEAST. APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE
UPPER TROUGH WILL INCREASE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM. TOGETHER WITH COOLER
SSTS TO SOUTH WILL CAUSE DECAY POSSIBLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DVORAK
BASED ON 0.7 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT 3.0. PT=3.0, AND
MET=2.5, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH WEAKENING.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID 101800UTC NEAR 24.0S 174.1W MOV SE 12KT WITH 40KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID 110600UTC NEAR 25.4S 171.5W MOV SE 14KT WITH 40KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID 111800UTC NEAR 25.2S 170.2W MOV ESE 10KT WITH 35KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID 120600UTC NEAR 26.8S 171.1W MOV SE 08KT WITH 30KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC ELISA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 101400UTC.

[Chacor]

[wyq614]

刚说完呢。。。。

Fiji's view changes sooooooooooooo rapidly...