S Pacific: Tropical Depression 08F

[Coredesat]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 169.0E AT
092100UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OSERVATION. SST AROUND
29-30 DEGREE CELCIUS. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS,
BUT THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS ORGANISATION. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, BUT 08F IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITHIN 18 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,EC,GFS]
PREDICT 08F TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES
EASTWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR THE 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

Not an invest yet, referring to the large blob near 15S 170E.

[Chacor]

WWPS21 NFFN 100900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 10/0938 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA CENTRE [992HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.1 SOUTH 175.7 WEST AT 100600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT
EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH ABOUT 06 KNOTS
BUT EXPECTED TO TURN AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REFER TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER
A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADIJan 10/0925 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [1001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 169.0E AT
100600UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 29-30
DEGREE CELCIUS.
QUIKSCAT PASS CLEARLY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 14.8S 173E.
HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE CENTRES EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOONAL TROUGH AND IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WHICH ONE WILL BE MORE
DOMINANT. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND IS ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT, BUT STILL LACKS ORGANISATION. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
LIES IN A LOW SHEAR ZONE. AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH A VIGOROUS
MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH SUPPORTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 08F. THE
GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,EC,GFS] PREDICT 08F TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND MOVE IT EAST THEN GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

99P is up.

[Chacor]

[P.K.]

WWPS21 NFFN 110900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 11/0918 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA CENTRE [990HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.6 SOUTH 172.2 WEST AT 110600 UTC.

FOR FUTTHER INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA PLEASE REFER
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADIJan
11/0805 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [10001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 175.4E AT
110600UTC AND SLOW MOVING EAST. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. HOWEVER,
IT SEEMS THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE CENTRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL
TROUGH AND IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WHICH ONE WILL BE MORE DOMINANT. SST
AROUND 29-30 DEGREE CELCIUS. CONVECTION IS ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT, BUT STILL LACKS ORGANISATION. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH A
VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,EC,GFS]
PREDICT 08F TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[Coredesat]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6S 177.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE BANDING
TO THE EAST OF A BROAD LLCC EVIDENT IN A 110613Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE
LLCC REMAINS WEAK AND IS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SURFACE PRES-
SURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVEL-
OPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED LLCC.

[Coredesat]

This should be moved back to Active Storms; this system is still active per RSMC bulletins.

[Coredesat]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.5S 179.3W AT
131800UTC AND IS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND
29-30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
A DEFINITE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT THIS
STAGE. QUIKSCAT MAINTAINS A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL
PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY ARE RISING SLIGHTLY. THERE IS A PULSE OF
CONVECTION IN THAT AREA BUT WITH NO DEFINITE ORGANISATION. CIMMS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM STILL LIES IN A REGION OF UPPER DILUENCE IN
A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS ACTIVE TO THE
NORTH AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE LOST 08F.

[Chacor]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 14/0905 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08F [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S 178.9W AT
140600UTC AND IS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 29-30
DEGREE CELCIUS.
A DEFINITE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH
MULTIPLE LOWS EMBEDED IN THE ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE. CONVECTION HAS
SLIGTLY INCREASED WITIHN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. QUIKSCAT MAINTAINS A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY
ARE RISING SLIGHTLY. THERE IS A PULSE OF CONVECTION IN THAT AREA BUT
WITH NO DEFINITE ORGANISATION. CIMMS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM STILL
LIES IN A REGION OF UPPER DILUENCE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A
CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS ACTIVE TO THE NORTH AND A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE LOST 08F.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.