NW Pacific ---Tropical Depression 01w

[Coredesat]

The shortwave loop shows the center becoming exposed on the SE side, so this system doesn't have much time ahead of it.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN13 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 13:19:13 N Lon : 115:30:31 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 / 997.6mb/ 34.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.4 2.6 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -55.4C Cloud Region Temp : -41.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[KWT]

Interesting to see the values have actually gone up a little now very close to 2.5. There is still some deent convection around the system even if the eastern side is pretty bare barring the deep convection close to the center.

[Chacor]

I remember people saying that ADT isn't really useful without an eye.

[cycloneye]

Looking good.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN14 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 13:18:28 N Lon : 114:45:31 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 / 995.8mb/ 37.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.6 2.9 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -44.4C Cloud Region Temp : -44.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



01WNONAME.35kts-996mb-128N-1149E

[HURAKAN]

Looks great as it moves slowly westward. Pretty litle system.

[RL3AO]

JMA might name it after all.

[RL3AO]

Name change please.

ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropi ... -WTPN.PGTW

TROPICAL STORM 01W WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W

[Chacor]

JMA might name it after all.

Still no full warning.

[Chacor]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 12.8N 114.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Watches for Viet Nam yet?

[HURAKAN]

Watches for Viet Nam yet?

Probably not needed.

[HURAKAN]

Not an eye but looks nice!!!

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN14 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 12:35:51 N Lon : 114:17:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 993.4mb/ 41.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.8 2.5 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -22.7C Cloud Region Temp : -43.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.48 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 12:23:24 N Lon: 113:41:24 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Chacor]

14/0830 UTC 12.2N 113.2E T3.0/3.0 01W -- West Pacific Ocean

No longer looks impressive though.

[Coredesat]

SSTs in this area are fairly cool, so this isn't surprising. Interestingly, the extrapolated JTWC forecast track takes this a couple hundred miles north of Singapore (and into an area of lower shear and increased SSTs...hmm... ).

[wyq614]

01W has nearly died without a name. But it has brought sort of thrill to the Chinese typhoon trackers. And I disagree with JMA at that point. JMA always "discriminate" the TCs of South China Sea. Any system that is no more than 55kt tends to get no name. I think the RSMC of NW Pacific should be the Chinese Meteorological Agency, instead of JMA.

[Coredesat]

It doesn't look quite dead yet:



Dry air entrainment is still an issue, though, the LLC is exposed on the SE side.

[RL3AO]

01W has nearly died without a name. But it has brought sort of thrill to the Chinese typhoon trackers. And I disagree with JMA at that point. JMA always "discriminate" the TCs of South China Sea. Any system that is no more than 55kt tends to get no name. I think the RSMC of NW Pacific should be the Chinese Meteorological Agency, instead of JMA.

Good luck. JMA isn't in the top 10 for RSMC's that need replaced.

The top 10 for RSMC replacement is

1. IMD
2. IMD
3. IMD
4. IMD
5. IMD
6. IMD
7. IMD
8. IMD
9. IMD
10. IMD