NW Pacific ---Tropical Depression 01w

[Coredesat]

01W has nearly died without a name. But it has brought sort of thrill to the Chinese typhoon trackers. And I disagree with JMA at that point. JMA always "discriminate" the TCs of South China Sea. Any system that is no more than 55kt tends to get no name. I think the RSMC of NW Pacific should be the Chinese Meteorological Agency, instead of JMA.

Good luck. JMA isn't in the top 10 for RSMC's that need replaced.

The top 10 for RSMC replacement is

1. IMD
2. IMD
3. IMD
4. IMD
5. IMD
6. IMD
7. IMD
8. IMD
9. IMD
10. IMD

Honorary mention goes to IMD.

Anyway, convection continues to be on the increase:

[HURAKAN]

That looks pretty good.

[P.K.]

01W has nearly died without a name. But it has brought sort of thrill to the Chinese typhoon trackers. And I disagree with JMA at that point. JMA always "discriminate" the TCs of South China Sea. Any system that is no more than 55kt tends to get no name. I think the RSMC of NW Pacific should be the Chinese Meteorological Agency, instead of JMA.

The CMA use a two minute wind average so it is to be expected they generally give higher wind speeds. I can't find any advisories issued by them for this TD, with the only other people not mentioned in this thread already to issue something in the area was Thailand who peaked it at a 30kt TD.

[Coredesat]

As far as I can tell CMA didn't issue any advisories on this system.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN15 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 7:26:59 N Lon : 110:04:14 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 / 997.6mb/ 34.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 3.0 3.0 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +12.7C Cloud Region Temp : -23.3C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.05^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Crostorm]

Nice

[Crostorm]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN15 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 7:15:00 N Lon : 109:53:14 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 993.4mb/ 41.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 2.7 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +18.4C Cloud Region Temp : -6.6C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.18^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Coredesat]

JTWC is issuing advisories on TD 01W again.

WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 7.7N 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.7N 110.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 6.5N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 5.4N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 7.4N 110.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. REGENERATION OF THE SYSTEM
IS BASED UPON DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND A
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATION OF 25 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LLCC. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z,
160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN15 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 7:08:59 N Lon : 109:47:44 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 993.4mb/ 41.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.7 2.4 2.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +18.0C Cloud Region Temp : -1.7C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.46^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Honeyko]

DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

The heat-content is much higher in the Gulf of Thailand.

This is a very interesting system -- I've never seen a central-Philippines TC exit and dive southwest at a sharp enough angle to miss Vietnam completely enough to avoid topographical disruption of circulation.

[Coredesat]

Convection's really dying off now, and I don't think it's coming back this time.

[Chacor]

[Coredesat]

15 kt? Well there you go.

Convection is flaring again but the LLCC isn't discernible in the imagery anymore.

[Squarethecircle]

Cool that it actually made it this far though. When was the last time something got this close to the Gulf of Thailand?

[Coredesat]

ex-Typhoon Durian in 2006 actually managed to cross into the Bay of Bengal as a weak tropical depression and showed signs of possible regeneration (JTWC upgraded to fair), but the convection didn't persist and it remained a weak broad low firing spurts of popcorn convection. The low opened up into a surface trough near India.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to go southwestward.

[Coredesat]

The LLCC is a little better defined than I thought, though it is still becoming diffuse. Not too far NNE of Singapore, though it will probably not approach them.

[Chacor]

JMA is still carrying as a TD:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 05N 105E WSW 10 KT.

Malaysia's Met Dept is also warning on it:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADVISORY
Issued at 6:00 pm 17/01/2008
TROPICAL DEPRESSION was observed near latitude 5.0 North and Longitude 105.0 East at 2.00 pm, 17 January 2008, approximately 212 km east of Kuala Terengganu. It is expected to move southwestward at 20 kmph.

This Tropical Depression is located approximately 329 km southeast of Kota Bahru and 230 km northeast of Kuantan.

[Chacor]

It's currently (06Z) 229 nm NNE of Singapore, so I highly doubt we'll be affected by it. Would certainly bring a lot of rain. Wind won't be a problem if it's really just 15 kt. Does anyone have the 06Z models?