NW Pacific ---Tropical Depression 01w

[Honeyko]

On the LLCC's present course SSW, persistence would bring it across the Malay peninsula just to the west of Singapore at only 2N.

Is there any record of any northern or southern hemisphere cyclone ever managing to cross the equator to the other side (however briefly) while maintaining a closed circulation?

[Chacor]

On the LLCC's present course SSW, persistence would bring it across the Malay peninsula just to the west of Singapore at only 2N.

Is there any record of any northern or southern hemisphere cyclone ever managing to cross the equator to the other side (however briefly) while maintaining a closed circulation?

Not as a cyclone, but Cyclone Agni's predecessor low crossed from the north to south and back north before becoming a TD in 2004.

[Chacor]

KNES had stopped sat fixes earlier, but has resumed.

026
WWPN20 KNES 170953

A. 01W (NONAME)

B. 17/0830Z

C. 4.3N

D. 105.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS... 3/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.0. MET=1.5 PT=1.0. DT BASSED
ON PT. -SALEMI

[HURAKAN]

Trying to get back on track. Now land becomes an obstacle!!!

[Chacor]

17/0830 UTC 4.3N 105.4E T1.0/1.0 01W -- West Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 04N 105E SW 10 KT.

[Coredesat]

It's currently (06Z) 229 nm NNE of Singapore, so I highly doubt we'll be affected by it. Would certainly bring a lot of rain. Wind won't be a problem if it's really just 15 kt. Does anyone have the 06Z models?

I should have seen this earlier, but there were no model runs done earlier. Most of the 00Z globals dissipated the system in 0 hr.

I mentioned Singapore because it's not often that the remnants of a tropical cyclone (or a tropical cyclone in general) approach your area.

[CrazyC83]

If this crosses the equator, it becomes BOM responsibility?

[RL3AO]

TD 01W...the ultimate basin crosser!

[Coredesat]

If this crosses the equator, it becomes BOM responsibility?

In the horridly unlikely event that occurred ( ), it would technically be Jakarta's responsibility, though I don't think that TCWC is operational.

[Chacor]

18Z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 04N 105E SW 10 KT.

[Chacor]

Almost all the convection is currently over Peninsula Malaysia.

[Coredesat]

Convection is increasing as the system is absorbed by the ITCZ.



This should be all she wrote for it.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 04N 104E WEST 10 KT.

Moving inland now.

[HurricaneRobert]

Is it even possible for a tropical cyclone to cross the equator? It would immediately be spinning in the wrong direction.

[Honeyko]

Looking at navymil 1km zoom and 2km, it appears to be quasi-stationary now. Persistent convective activity for 12hrs or so.

Is it even possible for a tropical cyclone to cross the equator?

It's theoretically possible, and actually most likely right at about this spot on Earth, where the Asian winter monsoon is strong enough to drive entrained LLCCs well south along with it. (The topography of Sumatra would destroy any "what if?" experiments, however.)

It would immediately be spinning in the wrong direction.

Actually there's no Coriolis Effect at all at the Equator; a system with a pre-existing spin has no intrinsic physical cause to cease spinning in that direction.

[Coredesat]

Dead from JMA, but still on NRL. As sheared it looks (due to strong easterly flow over the ITCZ near the equator), it will likely not be there for too much longer.

[Chacor]

06z ATCF point was exactly 1 degree latitude north of Singapore.

Slight rain today, rather windy, but that's usual for January, so all in all 01W not making a significant impact here.

[Honeyko]

Mid-level circulation evident on navy 1km IR crossing straits on a WSW slant. There are surface westerlies on the west side of Sumatra and northeasterlies to the north, so there are broadly favorable surface conditions provided some bit of spin should plop off the southwestern side of Sumatra (probably less than half a degree N of the equator). Whatever survives would likely blunder along toward Sri Lanka with convective bursts fighting easterly shear most of the way. (What's their climatology for getting hit by low-latitude TCs in the dead of winter?)

[Cyclone1]

Aww so close to the equator. We'll get one to cross one day...