SW Pacific: Tropical Depression 09F

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P.K.
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SW Pacific: Tropical Depression 09F

#1 Postby P.K. » Sun Jan 13, 2008 10:55 am

This formed overnight. The TD 08F thread has gone as well I see despite still being an active system.

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 13/0900 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.5S 179.0W AT
130600UTC AND IS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND
29-30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
A DEFINITE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT THIS STAGE BUT
QUIKSCAT SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES
IN THE VICINITY ARE LOW SO CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLS ARE MINIMAL AT THIS
STAGE. THERE IS NOW ORGANISED CONVECTION WITH MAJOR ACTIVITY LOCATED
TO THE NORTH. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. 08F REMAINS UNDER A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LIES
JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER 250HPA RIDGE. WITH AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE
TO THE NORTH AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE LOST 08F.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS IS LOW.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 204S 174.5W AT
130600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT PASS. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREE CELCIUS.
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS HARD TO SEE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MAJOR CONVECTION IS ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS
WITHOUT MUCH ORGANISATION. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,EC,GFS] HAVE PICKED UP THE
SYSTEM BUT DO NOT DEEPEN IT FURTHER AND ALL AGREE ON A GENERAL
SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR 09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS IS LOW.


NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
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Coredesat

#2 Postby Coredesat » Sun Jan 13, 2008 11:48 am

204S? Pretty far south, if you ask me. :lol:

It's pretty hard to see anything at 20.4S 174.5W:

Image
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Coredesat

#3 Postby Coredesat » Sun Jan 13, 2008 11:11 pm

Image

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 20.5S 174.2W AT
132100UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT PASS. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREE CELCIUS.
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS HARD TO SEE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTION IS SHEARED BUT TO THE EAST WITHOUT MUCH ORGANISATION.
CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS [US,UKGC,EC] DO NOT DEEPEN THE SYSTEM ANY FURTHER AND MOVE IT
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

POTENTIAL FOR 09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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Chacor
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#4 Postby Chacor » Mon Jan 14, 2008 7:55 am

No longer in the disturbance summary.
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Coredesat

#5 Postby Coredesat » Mon Jan 14, 2008 1:33 pm

Gone from NRL, too.
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