South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone FUNA (TC 12P)

[Crostorm]

Nice!

[Crostorm]

HURRICANE WARNING 033 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 18/1945 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA CENTRE [945HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20
DECIMAL 0 SOUTH 174 DECIMAL 2 EAST AT 181800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.0 SOUTH 174.2 EAST AT 181800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWARDS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.7S 175.1E AT 190600 UTC
AND NEAR 26.5S 173.8E AT 191800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 031.

[HURAKAN]

12PFUNA.105kts-944mb-199S-1742E

First major cyclone of 2008.

[HURAKAN]

18/2030 UTC 20.3S 174.6E T5.5/5.5 FUNA -- South Pacific Ocean



WTPS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 19.9S 174.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 174.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.6S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 26.7S 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 29.8S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 31.7S 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 174.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS, WITH CURRENT SATELLITE-DERIVED ESTIMATES SUPPORTING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. MOREOVER, THE CYCLONE NOW HAS A 24-NM
IRREGULAR EYE EVIDENT IN RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
JUST TO THE WEST OF 12P. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT
TERM BEFORE ENCOUNTERING A SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NEAR
24 DEGREES (SOUTH) LATITUDE. THE AMPLIFYING MIDLATITUDE PATTERN, COUPLED
WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST, WILL PROMOTE A RATHER RAPID
POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AVAILABLE MODEL FIELDS DEPICT AN INTERACTION BETWEEN TC 12P AND THE 500 MB
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTHWEST OF NEW ZEALAND. THIS INTERACTION,
COUPLED WITH MUCH LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL INITIATE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW AT THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POINT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z
AND 192100Z.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it strengthened at a pretty good clip the last few hours...and the latest shots are the best yet...maybe a Cat 4 soon (if it isn't already)?

[CrazyC83]

Even more rapid deepening on the way? My current guess is 110 kt/941mb.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 JAN 2008 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 20:17:49 S Lon : 174:34:06 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 983.6mb/ 57.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.3 3.7 6.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : -6.7C Cloud Region Temp : -77.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh21 ... 2hr_03.gif

Loop-Java
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... mscol.html

[Crostorm]

Looking better and better

[P.K.]

WHPS01 NFFN 190000
HURRICANE WARNING 035 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 19/0049 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA CENTRE [930HPA] CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 174 DECIMAL 8 EAST AT 190000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 20.9 SOUTH 174.8 EAST AT 190000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWARDS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, AND THEN SOUTHWEST.
CYCLONE HAS REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 95 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 80 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 65 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.5S 175.7E AT 191200 UTC
AND NEAR 27.1S 173.4E AT 200000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 033.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

WWPS20 KNES 182136

A. 12P (FUNA)

B. 18/2030Z

C. 20.3S

D. 174.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS.... WITH WHITE SURROUND SYSTEM HAS ENO OF 6.0. EYE ADJ OF
+0.5 FOR -6.7 DEG C OW EYE WITH WHITE SURROUNDING RING YIELDS DT OF
6.5. MET IS 5.5. PT IS 5.5. FT BASED ON PT. ....SPAMPATA

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 190000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 19/0155 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [930HPA] CAT 4 NEAR 20.9S
174.8E AT 190000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VISHR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE HAS REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY, AND IS MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS
IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 80
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40
MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 65 MILES OF CENTRE, AND OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE.

ORGANISATION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. AN IRREGULAR EYE WITH
DEEP CONVECTION COOLING AROUND IT. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. CMISS SHOWS LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STRONGER SHEAR THAT EXISTS ABOUT 25S WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
SST. DVORAK BASED ON DT=5.5 PT=5.5 MET=5.5, THUS T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG A RAPID POLEWARD
TRACK, TURNING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC NEAR 23.5S 175.7E MOV S 14KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC NEAR 27.1S 173.4E MOV SW 20KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC NEAR 29.4S 170.6E MOV SW 17KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC NEAR 32.3S 169.0E MOV SSW 16KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TC FUNA WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 190830 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Looks pretty much in steady state - I'd say still around 110 kt personally.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks pretty much in steady state - I'd say still around 110 kt personally.

Is the eye filling a little? maybe an EWRC?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks pretty much in steady state - I'd say still around 110 kt personally.

Is the eye filling a little? maybe an EWRC?

or maybe just the cooler water it is approaching...

[Crostorm]