South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone FUNA (TC 12P)

[Coredesat]

NRL's back.

[Crostorm]

HURRICANE WARNING 027 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 18/0110 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA CENTRE [960HPA] CATEGORY 3
WAS LOCATED NEAR 17
DECIMAL 4 SOUTH 172 DECIMAL 2 EAST AT 180000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.4 SOUTH 172.2 EAST AT 180000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.2S 173.3E AT 181200 UTC
AND NEAR 20.8S 174.2E AT 190000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 025.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

Nice!

[Crostorm]

Look good

[KWT]

Nice looking eye forming there on Funa, starting to get that classic cyclone look.

[Squarethecircle]

Although it certainly doesn't mean they're right, the JTWC forecast is starting to look a tiny bit closer to the truth.

[Chacor]

WHPS01 NFFN 181200
HURRICANE WARNING 031 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 18/1301 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA CENTRE [955HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 173 DECIMAL 4 EAST AT 181200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.9 SOUTH 173.4 EAST AT 181200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWARDS IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 20.4S 174.2E AT 190000 UTC
AND NEAR 23.1S 174.5E AT 191200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 029.

[Pedro Fernández]

Trying again to develop a more simmetric eye... !

NRL is pointing to 90 KT and 956 mb...

DVORAK:
18/0830 UTC 18.8S 173.3E T4.5/4.5 FUNA

[Chacor]

90 kts 1-minute.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 18/1400 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [955HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 18.9S
173.4E AT 181200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS BUT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN
50 MILES OF CENTRE, AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE.

ORGANISATION INCREASING SLOWlY BUT STEADILY. EYE STILL IRREGULAR BUT
DEEP CONVECTION COOLING AROUND IT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND SOUTH BUT
FAIR ELSEWHERE. SHEAR INCREASING OVER SYSTEM BUT CIMSS STILL
FORECASTING DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK. STRONGER SHEAR
EXISTS ABOUT 25S WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SST. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
NORTHEAST AND EAST INFLUENCING SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT. DVORAK BASED ON LG
SURROUND AND OW EYE, YIELDING A DT=5.0, PAT AND MET AGREE, THUS
T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ALONG A TRACK
TURNING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARDS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC NEAR 20.4S 174.2E MOV SSE 08KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC NEAR 23.1S 174.5E MOV S 15KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC NEAR 26.2S 173.3E MOV SSW 17KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC NEAR 29.0S 170.8E MOV SSW 18KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TC FUNA WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 182030 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Very fortunate islands. A few degrees to the right or left the story could have been much different.

[HURAKAN]

18/1430 UTC 19.4S 174.1E T5.0/5.0 FUNA -- South Pacific Ocean

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 JAN 2008 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 19:53:31 S Lon : 173:42:43 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 983.7mb/ 57.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.5 3.3 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.3mb

Center Temp : -60.7C Cloud Region Temp : -62.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

Doesn't make sense.

[Crostorm]

[Pedro Fernández]

According to this data: 18/1430 UTC 19.4S 174.1E T5.0/5.0 FUNA

Has FUNA been a category 2 hurricane (Saffir Simpson Scale)?

[HURAKAN]

De acuerdo al JTWC, los vientos son de 105 mph, lo cual es lo mismo que T5.0, y por lo tanto está en la categoría 2 de la escala Saffir-Simpson.

According to the JTWC, the winds are 105 mph, which is the same as T5.0, and consequently the cyclone is a category 2 in the Saffir-Simpson scale.

[CrazyC83]

Fortunately it is a small storm...I'd say 95 kt (1-min)/954mb right now.

[Crostorm]

NRL 12PFUNA.100kts-948mb