South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone FUNA (TC 12P)

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

WHPS01 NFFN 190600
HURRICANE WARNING 037 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 19/0705 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA CENTRE [930HPA] CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22
DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 1 EAST AT 190600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.1 SOUTH 175.1 EAST AT 190600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 95 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 80 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 65 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 26.1S 174.2E AT 191800 UTC
AND NEAR 29.2S 171.2E AT 206000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI AND TCWC WELLINGTON. VOS REPORTING SHIPS
USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET
DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 035.

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Highly doubt that such a strong cyclone will become extratropical in 18 hours. 36 perhaps.

[Crostorm]

WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 22.1S 175.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 175.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.6S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 28.4S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.7S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 34.9S 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 175.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE
FIXES ON AN APPROXIMATELY 25 NM DIAMETER EYE FROM PGTW, NFFN, KNES,
ABRF AND PHFO. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME AGENCIES
RESULTS IN THE INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR
TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 24
AND COMPLETE THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS NEAR TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//

NNNN

[Crostorm]

[Pedro Fernández]

:uarrow: De acuerdo al JTWC, los vientos son de 105 mph, lo cual es lo mismo que T5.0, y por lo tanto está en la categoría 2 de la escala Saffir-Simpson.

According to the JTWC, the winds are 105 mph, which is the same as T5.0, and consequently the cyclone is a category 2 in the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Thanks, Hurakan !

By the way...................... Don't you see a pinhole eye here?

[Chacor]

I've never heard the term 'pinwheel eye', and it's certainly not a pinhole eye...

[Pedro Fernández]

I've never heard the term 'pinwheel eye', and it's certainly not a pinhole eye...

Corrected, Chacor. I had confused the term in English. I'm sorry.

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Rapid weakening might be on the cards. Waiting for the 12z ATCF update.

[Crostorm]

HURRICANE WARNING 039 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 19/1308 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA CENTRE [930HPA] CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 23
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 4 EAST AT 191200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 23.9 SOUTH 175.4 EAST AT 191200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWARDS AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ACCELERATING A LITTLE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 95 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 75 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 65 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 320 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 28.1S 173.5E AT 200000 UTC
AND NEAR 30.2S 170.0E AT 201200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI AND TCWC WELLINGTON. VOS REPORTING SHIPS
USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET
DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 037.

[Chacor]

This should be the final Fiji warning. I expect Wellington will take over at 18z.

[Crostorm]

Issued by MetService at 08:34am 19-Jan-2008

SUBTROPIC AREA
GALE WARNING 315 AT 181800UTC
In a belt 120 miles wide centred on a line 38S 180 36S 177E 34S 174E:
Southeast 35kt.
Gale area slow moving.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 309.

GALE WARNING 316 AT 181800UTC
In a belt 120 miles wide centred on a line 40S 174E 39S 172E 38S
170E: Southeast 35kt.
Gale area slow moving.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 310.

VALID UNTIL 191200Z.

Cyclone Funa 955hPa 18.9S 173.4E at 181200Z expected at 23.1S 174.5E
at 191200Z. Rain poor visibility within 60 miles of trough 25S 173W
30S 176W 35S 177W 40S 173W moving east 10kt. Slow moving ridge 40S
162E 32S 158E 27S 153E 25S 150E. Between trough and ridge: southeast
25kt with gale as warnings 315 and 316, easterly gales and heavy
swells around Funa are likely to move southwards into the area after
190600Z. South of 30S and west of 155E: northeast 25kt.
Outlook following 72 hours:
Trough extends northwest from 40S 170W to cyclone Funa expected near
26S 173E around 200000Z, moving southsouthwest. Northeast 20 to 30kt
east of trough. Clockwise gales about low with heavy swell,storms
likely near centre. Ridge extends northwest from 40S 168E,
dissapating by 210000Z. Southeast 20 to 30kt west of trough to ridge,
and south of 30S. Northeast 20 to 30kt west of ridge. Trough
extends northnorthwest from 40S 155E at 210000Z, moving east.
Southwest 20 to 30kt west of trough.

http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... erwarnings

[Chacor]

That's an old bulletin. It was issued yesterday at 18z (almost 24 hours).

[Chacor]

Issued at 0100 UTC this morning:

This is a weather outlook for next week with relation to Funa.

Valid: Mon 21 Jan to Thu 24 Jan
Issued: Sat 19 January 2008 at 0221 pm

SWO Threat Situation valid from Monday 21-Jan-2008 to Thursday 24-Jan-2008

Issued by MetService at 2:06pm Saturday 19th January 2008

A deep depression, ex Tropical Cyclone Funa, is forecast to move from the tropics and lie northwest of the North Island by midday Monday. Strong, very moist northeasterlies are expected to spread over northern New Zealand during Monday, bringing rain to the northern half of the North Island. Heavy falls are likely from Northland down through Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne, with a moderate risk of rainfall amounts reaching warning criteria. There is also a low risk that northeast winds could rise to severe gale about exposed parts of Northland on Monday.

The depression is expected to continue to move southwards during Tuesday and cross the South Island during the afternoon or evening. Rain is likely to spread over much of the country during this time, especially central regions. There is a risk of rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria over many areas, as per the chart, and most especially about the ranges of Nelson and the South Island West Coast. Strong winds are also expected close to the depression, with a risk of severe northerly gales around Taranaki and Cook Strait early Tuesday and possible severe west to northwest gales over many eastern areas from Hawkes Bay down to Southland later on Tuesday and Wednesday, as per the chart.

There is still some uncertainty about the intensity and track of this depression as it crosses the South Island on Tuesday and people are advised to remain up to date with the latest forecasts as the situation evolves.

[CrazyC83]

Definitely weakening now. Probably peaked at 110 kt (1-min) IMO, and currently about 100 kt at the most.

[HURAKAN]

weakening continues.

[P.K.]

HURRICANE WARNING 339

This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone FUNA [945hPa] centre was located near 25.8 South
175.2 East at 191800 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 25.8S 175.2E at 191800 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southsouthwest about 20 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 85 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 100 miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 360 miles of centre in the
southeast semicircle and within 180 miles of centre in the northwest
semicircle.
Forecast position near 26.1S 174.2E at 200600 UTC
and near 32.5S 169.0E at 201800 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 332.

Issued at 19:32:56Z on 19-Jan-2008