South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone FUNA (TC 12P)

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.5S 162.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION
FLARING ON THE PERIPHERY OF A CONSOLIDATING, BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE FLARING CONVECTION AND DEVELOPING LLCC
IS REVEALED IN A 150701Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.

[wyq614]

exposed LLCC

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Coredesat]

WWSO21 ABRF 152339
IDQ20015
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


SATELLITE ANALYSIS BULLETIN
2339 UTC 15 January 2008

Tropical Low near Vannuatu
152330 UTC

15.3S 163.3E

Analysis based on: MTSAT VIS/IR 2233UTC, 91H 2103UTC

Latitude Detection Sum: 9

Longitude Detection Sum: 13

Dvorak analysis: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

Convection developing near centre past few hours. Dvorak based on MET and
Pattern type. Ship with gales at 18.1S 164.0E at 1800UTC.

Next bulletin available at 160500UTC

WHR BRISBANE

[Coredesat]

Upgraded to fair.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S
162.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 163.1E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION ON THE NORTH-
ERN HALF OF A CONSOLIDATING, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THIS CONVECTION AND DEVELOPING LLCC IS DEPICTED IN A 151043Z
MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA TO BE EXPERIEN-
CING GOOD DIFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LLCC AND
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO THE ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LLCC AND INCREASED SUSTAINED CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Organizing.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS21 PGTW 160200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 300 NM RADIUS OF 15.2S 163.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 160100Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 163.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SOUTH WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT.
A 152103Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH A STRONG
CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG EASTWARD-ORIENTED OUTFLOW
CHANNEL ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND. OVER-
ALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOP-
MENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 170200Z.

[Coredesat]

Tropical Depression 10F is here (well, it was here earlier, but still):

WWPS21 NFFN 152300
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 15/2344 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD 10F [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.4S 163.0E AT
152100UTC AND IS SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND
28 DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITIHN THE LAST 12 HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL
VARIATION WITH ORGANISATION BECOMING WELL ORGANISED. CIRCULATION IS
MORE LOW-MID LEVEL WITH MODERATE SHEAR ALOFT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
OF 10F. HOWEVER, MINIMAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AS INDICATED BY CIMMS.
10F LIES TO THE WEST OF AND UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS[AVN/UKGC/US] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM WITH A SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR TD 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
12 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[Coredesat]

983
TPPS10 PGTW 160015

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91P (W OF VANUATU)

B. 15/2330Z

C. 15.4S

D. 163.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/STT: S0.0/06HRS (15/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CVNCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. PT YIELDS A 2.0. DBO PT.

[HURAKAN]

15/2030 UTC 15.5S 164.0E T2.0/2.0 91P -- South Pacific Ocean

[Coredesat]

Tropical Depression 10F should take precedence as that's the official designation.

Interesting CPHC Dvorak fix:

969
TXPS40 PHFO 160555
TCSSP

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0555 UTC WED JAN 16 2008

RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE RELOCATED NEAR 15.0S 164.4E AT
16/0430 UTC BASED ON MTSAT 2 KM RESOLUTION VIS AND 4 KM RESOLUTION
EIR IMAGERY AND ANIMATION. POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM. ESTIMATED
MAXIMUM 1 MINUTE MEAN WIND SPEED 45 KT. MOVEMENT ESTIMATED TOWARDS
090 DEGREES AT 06 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

T3.0/3.0/D2.0/18 HOURS

REMARKS...THE 0239 UTC AMSUB IMAGERY WAS ALSO USED TO HELP DETERMINE
THE CENTER LOCATION. THE 0000 UTC UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATED
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 10 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE. CLOUD TOP ESTIMATES OF THE CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WERE NEAR 59 THOUSAND
FEET. THE LOG10 SPIRAL HAD A WRAP OF 0.6...SO THE DT IS 3.0. PT
AGREES. FT BASED ON DT.

$$

HOUSTON

[Chacor]

Looks very good. Inclined to agree with CPHC.

Special Advisory Number ONE for Vanuatu on TC ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 16/0436 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 SOUTH
163.6 EAST AT 160300UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
08 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF
CENTRE POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

THE CLOUD ORGANISATION AROUND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH
GOOD BANDING FROM THE NORTERN FLANK. LLCC IS STILL OBSCURED BY
CONVECTION ALOFT. DVORAK BASED ON MET AND PATTERN TYPE, THUS
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. CONVECTION WRAPS 0.45 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING
A DT OF 2.5. 10F IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER OUTFLOW THEREFORE
MAINTAINIG A LOW SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.

ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM
NORTHEAST BEFORE IT STARTS TRACKING SOUTHEAST. THE CLOUD BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BRING FURTHER HEAVY
DOWNPOUR ONTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF VANUATU WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS.


VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN VANUATU WATERS AND
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.



THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 160800UTC.

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

[P.K.]

This has just been named TC Funa, advisories will be out shortly.

[Coredesat]

On NRL as 12P.FUNA. Could a mod retitle this thread to "Tropical Cyclone FUNA (TC 12P)"?

[Chacor]

I keep reading that as 'tuna'...

[P.K.]

WTPS11 NFFN 160600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 16/0827 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [990HPA] CAT 1 NEAR 14.4S 164.8E AT
160600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING AND MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO TURN EAST THEN SOUTHEAST
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35
TO 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

ORGANISATIN PAST 12 HOURS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH CONVECTION
ABOUT CENTRE COOLING MARKEDLY AS WELL. SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY
AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND DEVELOPING TO EAST AND SOUTH.
SHEAR [CIMSS] DECREASING OVER SYSTEM AND ALONG FORECAST TRACK.
CYCLONE LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION AND STEERED EASTWARDS BY DEEP
LAYER MEAN MONSOON WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DVORAK BASED ON 0.6 WRAP
ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT3.0. PAT=3.0, MET=2.5, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC NEAR 14.2S 167.0E MOV E 11KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 14.8S 169.3E MOV ESE
13KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 15.8S 171.2E MOV ESE 12KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC NEAR 17.2S 172.4E MOV SE 10KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC FUNA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 161430 UTC.

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 161200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 16/1400 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [987HPA] CAT 1 NEAR 14.8S 165.7E AT
161200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING AND MOVING
EAST AT 10 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

ORGANISATION STEADILY INCREASING. PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTRE NOW UNER
DEEP AND COOLING CONVECTION. SPIRAL BANDS CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND DEVELOPING TO EAST AND
SOUTH. CYCLONE LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION AND MINIMAL SHEAR. SHEAR
[CIMSS] DECREASING OVER SYSTEM AND ALONG FORECAST TRACK. EASTWARD
STEERING INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO NORTH. DVORAK BASED ON 0.7
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT3.0. PAT=MET=3.0, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION ON EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TRACK.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC NEAR 15.0S 168.0E MOV E 11KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC NEAR 15.4S 170.1E MOV ESE
10KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC NEAR 16.4S 172.0E MOV SE 11KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC NEAR 17.9S 173.0E MOV SSE 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC FUNA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 162030 UTC.

[Chacor]

Vanuatu special adv:

ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VANUATU IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOMENTARY GUSTS WILL BE A LOT HIGHER AND FREQUENT. FREQUENT HEAVY
RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED. HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXPECTED
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VANUATU WATERS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

[Pedro Fernández]

Wow...! Looking at wind-shear forecasts, size of the storm and SST over the area, this topic could be very interesting !!