Australia: Tropical Low (95S)

[Coredesat]

NRL is currently down due to site maintenance.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.4S 111.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT
METSAT IMAGERY AND A 171020Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES THE DISTURBANCE UNDER GOOD DIFFLUENCE WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR AND LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

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IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Thursday the 17th of January 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

The weak tropical low has moved southwest over the past 24 hours and now lies
near 16S 115E. It is poorly organised and is not expected to develop.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the next three days is:
Friday : Low
Saturday : Low
Sunday : Low

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[Coredesat]

All alone out there...

[Coredesat]

Tiny little system.

[HURAKAN]

and poof!!!

[Coredesat]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
111.2E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Friday the 18th of January 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

The weak tropical low has moved west over the past 24 hours and now lies near
16S 113E. It is poorly organised and is not expected to develop.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the next three days is:

Saturday : Low
Sunday : Low
Monday : Low