NW Pacific: Tropical Depression (92W)

[Coredesat]

Unlisted LPA on JMA's 06Z weather map.

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.1N 128.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAPA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITH A MORE EVIDENT CIRCULATION IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A 162116Z
QUICKSCAT PASS SHOWS UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF BROAD
TROUGHING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIROMENT IS ALSO LIMITING
INTENSIFICATION WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND A WEAK VORTICITY SIGNATURE,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

[IceCycloon]

It looks not very bad.
Maybe O2W forming in coming days.

[RL3AO]

Did I miss 91W somewhere? I thought 90W was 01W?

[Coredesat]

I think it came and went briefly while 01W was active.

92W is gradually becoming better organized:

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 128E WEST SLOWLY.

[wyq614]

high shear area is now moving south towards 92W, what's more, a cold front may soon arrive in Philippines, which would weaken the system. The system is now interacting with Philippine Islands, even if it is able to enter the South China Sea, the SST is not very good. So I'd say it will die soon.

[Coredesat]

When the convection begins to look like the land mass it's right next to, you know conditions aren't favorable.

[Coredesat]

[wyq614]

has been removed from JTWC.

[Coredesat]

Still there.

[HURAKAN]

22/0230 UTC 10.8N 116.5E T1.5/1.5 92W -- West Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

Looks good.

[Crostorm]

[Coredesat]

JMA: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 115E WEST SLOWLY.

JTWC: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5N
116.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 115.9E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER
THE LLCC, AS WELL AS A CONTINUED AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVERGENT
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 20-KNOT 220300Z SURFACE
WIND OBSERVATION WAS OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOWS THE LLCC IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING FOR LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE
INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[KWT]

Convection has been very much on the downward trend in the last few hours and whilst there is still going off nearby the deep convection near the center has either gone or has weakened a lot.

[wyq614]

原位于10.6N 112.2E的热带扰动，现已移动到10N 108E，也就是越南芽庄市南南西方向155海里的洋面上，最新的图像显示，这个扰动已经几乎没有螺旋形，对流大部位于北方。24日01：27分的图像确认，对流主体已经位于北方，而且该扰动变得越来越向东风波。该扰动目前正位于不太适宜的海温以及低热量的海区。风切值现在是中度到强度，目前的最大持续风力在15-20KT，最小海平面气压估计在1007毫巴，因为过于靠近越南海岸和不太适宜的环境条件，该扰动24小时内生成热带气旋的可能性降级为POOR。

the area of convection previously located near 10.6n
112.2e, is now located near 10.0n 108.0e, approximately 155 nm
south-southwest of nha trang, Vietnam. Recent animated enhanced
infrared imagery indicates that the disturbance has little cyclonic
turning in the low levels and convection is confined to the north
of the disturbance. A 231727z trmm microwave image confirms that
the bulk of the convection is confined to the north and that the
disturbance has taken on the appearance of a tropical wave. The
disturbance is now located over marginal sea surface temperatures
and low ocean heat content. Vertical wind shear values are now
moderate to high. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated
at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to
be near 1007 mb. Due to the proximity to the coast of Vietnam
and marginal environmental conditions, the potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next
24 hours is downgraded to poor.

[Coredesat]

Dead from JTWC and JMA. Still on NRL, but probably not for long.