SW Pacific: Tropical Depression 11F (96P)

[Coredesat]

WWPS21 NFFN 202100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 20/2223 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11P [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S 168.2W AT
202100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE
CELCIUS.

THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND IS EMBEDDED IN A
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
ALOFT. CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANISED BUT ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW
[250HPA]. A VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW SUPPORTS ITS NORTHERN FLANK WHILE
GOOD SOUTHEASTERLIES SUPPORT THE SOUTH. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
[GFS/EC/UK/GASP] DEEPEN 11F AND THEN MOVE IT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[Coredesat]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0S 168.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING,
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED, WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERS. A 210135Z TRMM PASS
SHOWS MULTIPLE FORMATIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD
AREA OF TURNING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD VERTICAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DUE TO THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

----------------------------

NARRATIVE SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND THE
INDEPENDENT STATE OF SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
200 PM SST SUN 20 2008

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOWSS LOTS OF MOISTURE OVER AND TO THE EAST
OF SAMOA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF MANUA.
THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11P NEAR
16.0 SOUTH 169.0 WEST OR ABOUT 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANUA AT 100
PM SST SUNDAY AND MOVING IT TO NEAR PAGO PAGO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MOONSOONAL TROUGH FROM THE SOLOMON ISLANDS TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
11P WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT SAMOA WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK.

A RESULT...EXPECT CLOUDY SKY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OF 15 TO 25 INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTY AND
VEERING TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SSSUNDAY...
THE GFS THE MONSOONAL TROUGH ALONG 10 SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SOUTH OF SAMOA WILL LIKELY HAVE DEVELOED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
WEDNESDAY AND MOVING SOUTHWARD. THE MODEL IS DEVELOPING ANOTHR SYSTEM
TO MOVE NEAR SAMOA OVER THE WEEKEND.

[Crostorm]

[P.K.]

Funa was 10F making this 11F.

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 21/0914 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [998HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.5S 168.7W AT
210600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREE CELCIUS.

THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND IS EMBEDDED IN A
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
ALOFT. CONVECTION IS BECOMING ORGANISED AND REMAINS ACTIVE IN THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENT FLOW [250HPA]. A VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW SUPPORTS ITS
NORTHERN FLANK WHILE GOOD SOUTHEASTERLIES SUPPORT THE SOUTH. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS [GFS/EC/UK/GASP] DEEPEN 11F AND THEN MOVE IT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Looking a little better.

[IceCycloon]

Its looks better and better !

NRL :

1004mb and 25kts

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 21/2239 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [996HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 166.2W AT
211800UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT PASS.
SST AROUND 28-29 DEGREE CELCIUS.

RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCUALTION CENTRE BUT A
CENTRE IS NOT CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS HARD TO
FIND. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A SURFACE TO MID LEVEL TROUGH
WITH A MID TO HIGH LEVEL CIRCULATION ALOFT. CONVECTION IS STILL
ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
BECOMING ORGANISED. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW
[250HPA]. A VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW SUPPORTS ITS NORTHERN FLANK WHILE
GOOD SOUTHEASTERLIES SUPPORT THE SOUTH. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
[GFS/UK/GASP] DEEPEN 11F SLIGHTLY AND THEN MOVE IT SOUTHWARD.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[wyq614]

JTWC has upgraded it to Fair

[HURAKAN]

[Coredesat]

Exposed LLCC.

[Coredesat]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.2S
166.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 166.7W, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE MULTIPLE LLCCS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF BROAD,
ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING. A 220039Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS CONVERGENT
BANDING ON THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS OF THE WESTERN-MOST
LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PAGO PAGO INDICATE SLP NEAR 997 MB
AND SUSTAINED WINDS AT 16 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS FAVOR-
ABLE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARING MOST OF THE CONVECTION OFF
THESE LOW LEVEL VORTICES TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24 THE MODELS
INDICATE AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE LLCC AS WELL AS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. ALTHOUGH OBSERVED PRESSURES ARE LOW WITH STRONG
WINDS ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE, THE LLCC IS
ELONGATED AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL.
THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

------------------------------------------

WWPS21 NFFN 230000
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 23/0015 UTC 2008 UTC.

DEPRESSION 011F [996HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.7S 166.8W AT 222100UTC
MOVING SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT
PASS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREE CELCIUS.

LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCUALTION CENTRE. THE CENTRE
IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGER. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT
AN ACTIVE FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS IN THE NORTHEASTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANTS. ORGANISATION REMAINS FAIR. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR BUT HIGH SHEAR FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS WITH LLCC MORE EXPOSED. SYSTEM
LIES TO THE WEST OR NORTH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW [250HPA]. A
VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW SUPPORTS ITS NORTHEASTERN FLANK WHILE GOOD
SOUTHEASTERLIES SUPPORT FROM THE SOUTHERN PART. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
[GFS/UK/GASP] SLIGHTLY DEEPENS 011F AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

ET!

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S
166.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 167.2W, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT THE CENTER
AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 230122Z TRMM
37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING DISPLACED TO THE EAST. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A QUASI-
STATIONARY LOW LEVEL THAT IS CUT OFF FROM THE STEERING FLOW. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WRAPPING TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A SKEW-T ANALYSIS AT PAGO PAGO SHOWS DRIER AIR
HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE MID-LEVELS, AS A RESULT OF THE BAROCLINIC
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. DUE TO THE WELL-DEFINED
LLCC, BUT THE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[wyq614]

原位于19.5S 167.2W的热带扰动，现已移动到23.4S 167.2W，也就是在帕果帕果南南东方向580海里的洋面上。最近的图像显示，LLCC形态完整，监测到20-25KT的风力，在西北方向，风力较小，24日17：46的微波图像显示，LLCC暴露，西部对流很弱，水汽分析显示，一些中层干燥空气正在侵入中心，上层大气环境比较不利，由于有高风切以及系统北方的上层大气槽。该扰动现在正经过海温更低的区域，并且开始呈现温带气旋的特征。最大持续风力估计在20-25KT左右，最小海平面气压在998mb，由于所处环境不佳，该扰动未来24小时内成为热带气旋的可能性降低为POOR。

the area of convection previously located near 19.5s
167.2w, is now located near 23.4s 167.2w, approximately 580 nm
south-southeast of Pago Pago. Previous Quikscat images showed a
well-defined low level circulation center (LLCC) with unflagged
winds of 20 to 25 knots at the center and lighter winds over the
northwestern quadrant. A 231746z SSMI microwave image depicts an
exposed LLCC with weak convection to the west. Animated water vapor
imagery shows an upper level low to the northwest of the low level
circulation and drier midlatitude air is wrapping into the center.
The upper level environment remains marginal due to high vertical
wind shear values associated with the upper level trough to the
north of the system. The disturbance is now tracking over lower
sea surface temperatures and is beginning to take on extratropical
characteristics. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated
at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be
near 998 mb. Due to the marginal environment, the potential for
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next
24 hours is downgraded to poor.

[Coredesat]

Given that "tropical" has not returned to the classification of the system, it seems that it is extratropical. It's also moving out of Nadi's AOR, so if this does somehow become tropical, Nadi won't be issuing warnings on it.

WWPS21 NFFN 232100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 23/2322 UTC 2008 UTC.

DEPRESSION 011F [992HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 25.0S 169.8W AT 232100UTC
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 26 DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH LLCC EXPOSED. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF
A 250 HPA UPPER DILLUENT REGION AND NORTH OF AN INTENSE SURFACE
RIDGE. 011F HAVE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ALOFT.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS [GFS/UK/GASP] HAVE LITTLE INTESIFICATION OF 011F AND
CONTINUES THE SOUTHWEST MOVEMENTOVER COLDER WATERS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[Coredesat]

[Coredesat]

154
TPPS10 PGTW 240658

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96P (SSE OF FIJI)

B. 24/0530Z

C. XX.X

D. XXX.X

E. N/A/GOES11

F. XT2.5/2.5 (23/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR

POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN. WILL MONITOR FOR
ANY REGENERATION.

[Coredesat]

Dead on arrival in TCWC Wellington's AOR. It's an extratropical storm.

STORM WARNING 423

This affects ocean areas: SUBTROPIC and PACIFIC
AT 240600UTC

Over waters south of 25S.
Low 984hPa near 26S 170W moving southwest 15kt.
1. Within 120 miles of low in southwest semicircle: Clockwise 50kt.
2. Outside area 1 and within 360 miles of low in southwest
semicircle: Clockwise 40kt.
3. Outside areas 1 and 2 and within 180 miles of low in northeast
semicircle: Clockwise 40kt.
Storm and gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 419.

Issued at 06:00:05Z on 24-Jan-2008