South Indian Ocean: ex. FAMÉ (TC 13S)

[HURAKAN]

Eye becoming more recognizable in visible.

[Chacor]

Please change the thread title... it's now an STS.

[Pedro Fernández]

FAME improving its organization...

MeteoFrance showing recently data: 982 hPa - 55 KT sustained winds.

MPE EUMETSAT image (13:15 UTC):

[CrazyC83]

Looks like about a 60 kt (1-min) storm right now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope that super rare type of palm tree that blooms once a century, than dies shortly later, isn't affected by Fame'.

[Coredesat]

Becoming disorganized.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 270033

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/8/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAME)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/27 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 44.4E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/27 12 UTC: 16.2S/44.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 17.5S/44.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 19.2S/46.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 19.9S/47.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.0

SOME GOOD MICROWAVE FIX (TMI 17:36Z, WINDSAT 15:22Z) HAVE HELPED TO
RELOCALIZE CEN CENTER LAST NIGHT. SINCI IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEEN ON IR
IMAGERY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS COLAPSED NEAR THE CENTER DURING
THE
NIGHT DUE TO COLD SST AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN STATIONNARY FOR AT LEAST
36
HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

LLCC AFTER DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARDS A LITTLE BIT IS TRACKING NOW
SOUTHWARDS TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE WHERE LANDFALL
IS
FORECAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF CAP SAINT ANDRE .
FAME
IS UNDERGOING STEERING FLOW OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS IN ITS NORTHEAST
(REFER
ECMWF 700HPA AND 50
0HPA). AFTER THAT, THERE IS SOME DISPERSION IN NWP SOLUTIONS ... ONE
AS
UKMO BRING THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ONE AS ECMWF
OR
GFDL BRING THE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF MALAGASY ...

AS FAME REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM, OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
DISSIPATION
OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN OF MALAGASY BY 48 HOURS

AS FAME IS NOW MOVING, THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM
TO
REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE (65 KT) BEFORE LANDFALL WITH
SOME
WARMER SST AS ENVIRONMENTALS CONDITIONS REMAINS GOOD.=

[Crostorm]

Landfall soon

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 270633 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/8/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAME)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/27 AT 0600 UTC :
15.4S / 44.4E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/27 18 UTC: 16.4S/44.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/01/28 06 UTC: 18.0S/45.0E OVERLAND.
36H: 2008/01/28 18 UTC: 19.2S/46.2E DISSIPATING.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CORRECTED FOR DVORAK ANALYSIS : D 0.5/12 H
T AND CI=4.0+

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INTENSIFYED NEAR THE CENTER, DUE TO THE
RESTART
OF DEPLACEMENT OVER WARMER SST. INTENSITY IS NOW AT 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY, COULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE LANDFALL.

LLCC IS TRACKING NOW SOUTHWARDS TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY
COASTLINE WHERE LANDFALL IS FORECAST THIS EVENING OR IN THE NIGHT
SOUTH
TO CAP SAINT ANDRE . FAME IS UNDERGOING STEERING FLOW OF MID-LEVEL
HIGHS
IN ITS NORTHEAST (REFER ECMWF 700HPA AND 500HPA). AFTER THAT, THERE
IS
SOME DISPERSION IN
NWP SOLUTIONS ... ONE AS UKMO BRING THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, ONE AS ECMWF OR GFDL BRING THE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN COAST
OF
MALAGASY ...

AS FAME REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM, OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
DISSIPATION
OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN OF MALAGASY BY 48 HOURS=

[Crostorm]

13SFAME.80kts-963mb-

[KWT]

Yep landfall very soon, not a bad looking system in the end and it does seem like its on the strengthening trend again after becoming a little messy last night. Still a small system and compact which has probably helped it reorganise quickly, nice little eye as well on this system that has now emerged in vis.imagery as well.

[Crostorm]

Landfall?

[Chacor]

Looks like it's just clipped the coast. Unless the centre of the eye is fully inland, it's not landfall.

[Crostorm]

It seams to be cat.2

[Chacor]

290
WTIO30 FMEE 271224

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/8/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAME)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/27 AT 1200 UTC :
16.2S / 44.3E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 17.6S/44.7E OVERLAND.
24H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 19.0S/45.8E OVERLAND.
36H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 20.1S/46.7E DISSIPATING.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.0+

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INTENSIFYED NEAR THE CENTER, DUE TO THE RESTART
OF DEPLACEMENT OVER WARMER SST. INTENSITY IS NOW AT 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY, COULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE LANDFALL.

LLCC IS TRACKING NOW SOUTHWARDS TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY
COASTLINE WHERE LANDFALL IS FORECAST THIS EVENING OR IN THE NIGHT SOUTH
TO CAP SAINT ANDRE . FAME IS UNDERGOING STEERING FLOW OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS
IN ITS NORTHEAST (REFER ECMWF 700HPA AND 500HPA). AFTER THAT,
AS FAME REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM, IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN OF MALAGASY UP TO 36 HOURS.

Officially no landfall yet.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like landfall already occurred.

[IceCycloon]

Tropical Cyclone Fame :

956mb - 90kts

[HURAKAN]

27/1430 UTC 16.8S 44.5E OVERLAND FAME -- South Indian Ocean

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it made landfall as a Cat 2.

[Crostorm]

Tropical Cyclone Fame threatens to worsen flooding in Mozambique
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/ ... fame_N.htm