South Indian Ocean: ex. FAMÉ (TC 13S)

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneRobert]

Nice eye. It looks like Reunion will have to upgrade this in post-analysis since they didn't yet have it at tropical cyclone status. Fame might not be done, though, if it makes it across the island.

I wonder if we'll see the craziness of this again:

[RattleMan]

It looks like Reunion will have to upgrade this in post-analysis since they didn't yet have it at tropical cyclone status.

From the 1800z warning:

"OTHER INFORMATIONS:
FAME HAS TEMPORARY REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE MINIMAL STAGE BEFORE ITS
LANDFALL AT ABOUT 1300Z NEAR BESALAMPY.
IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN WITHIN ITS TRIP OVER MALAGASY DUE TO
ITS SMALL SIZE.
THE RESIDUAL LOW COULD GO BACK OVER SEA WITHIN 36 HOURS ON THE EASTERN
MALAGASY COASTLINE NEAR FARAFANGANA.
IT COULD SO REACH AGAIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE."

ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropi ... 12718-FMEE

[CrazyC83]

It looks like Reunion will have to upgrade this in post-analysis since they didn't yet have it at tropical cyclone status.

From the 1800z warning:

"OTHER INFORMATIONS:
FAME HAS TEMPORARY REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE MINIMAL STAGE BEFORE ITS
LANDFALL AT ABOUT 1300Z NEAR BESALAMPY.
IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN WITHIN ITS TRIP OVER MALAGASY DUE TO
ITS SMALL SIZE.
THE RESIDUAL LOW COULD GO BACK OVER SEA WITHIN 36 HOURS ON THE EASTERN
MALAGASY COASTLINE NEAR FARAFANGANA.
IT COULD SO REACH AGAIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE."

ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropi ... 12718-FMEE

That means it was official TC Fame, correct?

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

It's now officially Overland Depression Ex-Fame, not an STS any more. Even if it was over water it would only be a moderate TS.

WTIO30 FMEE 280039

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/8/20072008
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/28 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 45.0E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM):
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 19.1S/46.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 19.8S/48.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 20.2S/49.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/01/30 00 UTC: 20.4S/50.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 20.6S/51.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 21.2S/52.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
FAME HAS TEMPORARY REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE MINIMAL STAGE BEFORE ITS
LANDFALL AT ABOUT 1300Z NEAR BESALAMPY.
IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN WITHIN ITS TRIP OVER MALAGASY
DUE TO
ITS SMALL SIZE. THE RESIDUAL LOW COULD GO BACK OVER SEA WITHIN 24 TO
36
HOURS ON THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE BETWEEN TOAMASINA AND
FARAFANGANA.
IT COULD SO REACH AGAIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.=

[Coredesat]

Interesting that they're forecasting regeneration when land interaction is clearly taking its toll.



The JTWC track brings the center very close to Antananarivo.

[HurricaneRobert]

If it did make it to TC it's not going to show up in their track.

[Coredesat]

Continuing to fall apart, though the rains will continue due to the well-established feeder band in the northern semicircle.

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 280647

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/8/20072008
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/28 AT 0600 UTC :
18.1S / 46.5E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM):
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/28 18 UTC: 19.0S/48.2E OVERLAND.
24H: 2008/01/29 06 UTC: 19.9S/50.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
36H: 2008/01/29 18 UTC: 19.1S/51.6E DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EX-FAME RESIDUAL VORTEX IS TILL OBVIOUS ON THE STELLITE IMAGERY OVERT
MADAGASCAR.
THIS VORTX COULD GO BACK AT SEAS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT AT A
MINIMAL STAGE.=

[Coredesat]

Dead, unless it regenerates east of Madagascar.

WTIO30 FMEE 281227

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/8/20072008
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/28 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0S / 47.0E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) :

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM):
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 20.3S/48.7E DISSIPATING.
24H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EX-FAME IS COMPLETELY DESTRUCTURED OVER MADAGASCAR.
EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM GO BACK AT SEAS IT WOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM THAT REMAINS CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION

[Coredesat]

[HURAKAN]

Even if the center were to make to the coast, it will be too weak and too close to much powerful Gula to make a comeback.

[IceCycloon]

Are they reports of damages or deaths?

[Coredesat]

None that I can find, but it looks like Fame is making a comeback:



All I have is low-res AMSUB imagery, but this convection appears to be associated with the remnant circulation:

[HurricaneRobert]

It's going to have to regenerate quickly because Gula's coming its way.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 290200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.7S 48.6E TO 22.1S 51.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 290000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.9S 49.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME)
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 49.1E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF
2.0/2.0 FROM PGTW AND A 282159Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGEST
THAT THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCI-
ATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED OVER WATER, AND SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR INDICATE SURFACE
PRESSURES OF 1002 MB NEAR THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD INDUCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, BUT THESE PROCESSES COULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE DISTURBANCE EXPERIENCES A BRIEF PERIOD
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE
TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 300200Z.

[Coredesat]

Coming back together quite rapidly. AMSUB and IR show increasing convective banding around the LLC.

[HurricaneRobert]

I don't think it'll head south and become ET just yet. Fame's and Gula's rainbands are almost touching, and it looks like its starting to pull to the larger storm.