South Indian Ocean: ex. FAMÉ (TC 13S)

[HURAKAN]

29/0230 UTC 19.6S 50.8E T2.0/2.0 FAME -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Not bad!!!

[Crostorm]

Yeah,not bad at all

[Chacor]

Upgraded to a Tropical Disturbance, forecast to reach depression stage again before being entrained in a Fujiwhara with Gula.

WTIO30 FMEE 290635

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/8/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 (EX-FAME)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/29 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6S / 51.2E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/29 18 UTC: 20.1S/51.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/01/30 06 UTC: 20.6S/52.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 21.1S/51.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 20.9S/51.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.
60H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 20.3S/51.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-

EX-FAME HAS CAME BACK OVER SEAS AND THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION IS LIGHTLY
RE-ORGANIZING, AT A WEAK INTENSITY.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS TRACKING EASTWARDS. IT SHOULD
CURVE SOUTHEASTWARDS AND SLOW DOWN, REACHING TEMPORARILLY THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INTENSITY. THEN IT SHOULD BEEN CATCHED IN THE CIRCULATION OF
GULA, WICH SHOULD ABSORBE IT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.

[Coredesat]

JTWC:

953
TPXS10 PGTW 290638

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME)

B. 29/0530Z

C. 20.0S

D. 52.0E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.5/2.5/W1.5/30HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (29/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A 2.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

--------------

SAB:

053
WWIO21 KNES 290947

A. 13S (FAME)

B. 29/0830Z

C. 20.2S

D. 51.8E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...LLCC NEAR NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION. DT IS
2.5 BASED ON BANDING OF JUST UNDER 5 TENTHS AND PT AGREES.

[HURAKAN]

29/0830 UTC 20.2S 51.8E T2.5/2.5 FAME -- South Indian Ocean

[P.K.]

WTIO30 FMEE 291234

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/8/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/29 AT 1200 UTC :
20.3S / 52.0E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/30 00 UTC: 21.2S/53.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 22.3S/54.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 23.5S/54.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/01/31 12 UTC: 22.3S/52.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/02/01 00 UTC: 20.5S/53.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5

THE SYSTEM IS RE-ORGANIZING AND INTENSIFYING, TRACKING
EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS
, OVER THE SOUTHREN EDGE OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR SEYCHELLES
ISLANDS, WHICH SHOULD GO ON GENERATING THE STEERING FLOW DURING THE
NEXT
24 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST AT THE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY, BUT THE LAST
SATELLITE IMADERIES SHOW A CLEAR EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
IT SHOULD STOP ITS TRACK JUST SOUTH OF REUNION ISLAND, OVER THE
WESTERN
EDGE OF A MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OF
MASCAREIGNES
ISLANDS (AND WHICH SHOULD MAKE GULA TRACK SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS AT THE
SAME
MOMENT).
THE TWO SYSTEMS, LOCATED OVER EACH SIDES OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS,
SHOULD
THEN INTERACT (FUJIWHARA EFFECT) AS SOON AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE ONE
FROM
EACHOTHER (500 OR 700 KM, BUT NOT BEFORE BECAUSE THEY ARE RATHER
SMALL).
FAME SHOULD THEN CURVE GLOBALLY NORTHWARDS, WEAKENING, MERGING AND
ABSORBATED BY T
HE MAIN CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GULA.=

[Coredesat]

Anyone else spot the error in RSMC La Réunion's forecast points?

They just issued a correction a couple minutes ago.

[HURAKAN]

Anyone else spot the error in RSMC La Réunion's forecast points?

They just issued a correction a couple minutes ago.

I see it now. I thought this was a dancing cyclone, going back and forth!!!

[HURAKAN]

I smell hostility!!!

[Coredesat]

Fame clearly looks sheared right now. It doesn't have much time before Gula rips it apart, though the interaction seems to be weakening Gula as well.

[HURAKAN]

[Pedro Fernández]

Fame clearly looks sheared right now. It doesn't have much time before Gula rips it apart, though the interaction seems to be weakening Gula as well.

I agree. Both systems are weakening, looking at satellite images.

[Crostorm]

It seams Fame is strengt and Gula is weakening

NRL Fame 996mb-35kts

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JAN 2008 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 21:22:15 S Lon : 52:58:13 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 / 995.5mb/ 39.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.7 2.9 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.9mb

Center Temp : -75.9C Cloud Region Temp : -61.5C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

IT'S BACK!!!

20080129.1930.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.13SFAME.35kts-996mb-214S-529E.100pc.jpg

[Pedro Fernández]

I can't believe it............ CIMSS is considering it as a tropical storm again...........

[HURAKAN]

No Fujiwara and curving away. Interesting.

[HURAKAN]

29/2030 UTC 21.1S 52.8E T3.0/3.0 FAME -- South Indian Ocean



Now:

[Coredesat]

WTIO30 FMEE 300034

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/8/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/30 AT 0000 UTC :
21.1S / 52.4E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 21.2S/51.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 20.8S/51.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/01/31 12 UTC: 20.2S/51.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
48H: 2008/02/01 00 UTC: 19.8S/52.2E DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.5
THE SYSTEM IS IN LA REUNION'S RADAR SCOPE ALLOWING A RATHER ACCURATE
POSITION.
ON THE LAST RADAR IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM SEEMS HAVE STARTED A LOOP.
EX-FAME CURRENTLY INDERGOES A RATHER STRONG NORTHWESTERN SHEAR OBVIOUS ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS WEAKENING. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS.