South Indian Ocean: TROPICAL CYCLONE GULA (TC 14S)

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[IceCycloon]

Gula :

974mb - 65kts.

[Chacor]

What's so " " about that?!

[Crostorm]

WTXS32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 62.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 62.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.5S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.7S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.1S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.7S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 61.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GULA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT. AN SSMI/S 281309Z PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC BUT A LACK OF EXTENSIVE
SPIRAL BANDING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
A RESULT OF AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT; HOWEVER, POLEWARD EXHAUST WILL BE
LIMITED. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SOME OF THE MODEL FIELDS HINT
AT AN INTERACTION BETWEEN TC 14S AND THE REMNANTS OF TC 13S EAST OF
MADAGASCAR NEAR TAU 48. IT IS ESTIMATED THE CIRCULATIONS WOULD BE
WITHIN 600 NM OF ONE ANOTHER AT THIS POINT, PROVIDED 13S IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT CROSSES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. IF A
VIABLE CIRCULATION REMAINS, THEN SOME INTERACTION IS INDEED A
POSSIBILITY BEYOND TAU 48, WITH 14S BEING THE DOMINANT CYCLONE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290300Z AND 291500Z. REFER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

Tropical cyclone Gula is forecast to strike Mauritius at about 08:00 GMT on 30 January. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 19.2 S, 57.9 E. Gula is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 157 km/h (97 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Gula's strength (category 2) at landfall includes:

Storm surge generally 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8 feet) above normal.
Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down.
Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers.
Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the storm center.
Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.
There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL). TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

http://www.alertnet.org/thefacts/relief ... 4S_14S.htm

[KWT]

Gula looks good right now with a nice CDO though the banig isn't that noteable, though over the last few hours the inflow has become a little more noteable it appears. Still no obvious sign of an eyewall or eye on the images crostorm posted earlier.

[HURAKAN]

Looks excellent.

[Pedro Fernández]

Latest DVORAK data point to 3.5 (14:30 UTC)... But, looking at its shape, convection and cloud top temperatures in the last satellite images, I would say it is close to reach category 1 in the Saffir-Simpson Scale...

[P.K.]

80-85kts between Reunion and Mauritius.

WTIO30 FMEE 281815

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/9/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/28 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 62.0E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SO: 180 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 450 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/29 06 UTC: 14.7S/61.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/01/29 18 UTC: 15.2S/60.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/01/30 06 UTC: 16.7S/59.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 18.6S/57.9E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 20.8S/56.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 23.4S/55.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-

THE SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED AS A REGULAR CDO PATTERN DURING THE LAST HOURS,
AND AN EYE IS VISIBLE ON THE LAST MICRO-WAVES DATA.
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICALE RIDGE. BUT THIS SHOULD BE QUITE SLOWN DOWN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BY THE WEAKENING EFFECT OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED IN
THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
BEYOND 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD
ACCELERATE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING EFFECT OF A RIDGE ON
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.

[Pedro Fernández]

We can see the eye in the multisensor image from Navy

[IceCycloon]

Nrl :

Gula,

970mb - 70kts

[RL3AO]

Whats the TCHP like in this area?

[Coredesat]

Fairly marginal, surprisingly:

[Coredesat]

[Squarethecircle]

I'll be darned if that eye isn't clear as day.

[Chacor]

779
WTIO30 FMEE 290006

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/9/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/29 AT 0000 UTC :
14.5S / 61.9E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SO: 180 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 14.6S/61.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/01/30 00 UTC: 15.7S/59.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 17.6S/58.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 20.0S/57.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/01/31 12 UTC: 22.3S/56.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/01 00 UTC: 24.7S/55.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0+

THE SYSTEM SHOWS AN EYE PATTERN ACCORDING TO THE VERY LAST SATELITE
IMAGERY.

ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICALE RIDGE. BUT THIS SHOULD BE QUITE SLOWN DOWN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BY THE WEAKENING EFFECT OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED IN
THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
BEYOND 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD
ACCELERATE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING EFFECT OF A RIDGE ON
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

I C U!!!