South Indian Ocean: TROPICAL CYCLONE GULA (TC 14S)

[HURAKAN]

A lot of unorganized convection in the SIO.

[Coredesat]

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2S 67.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER. PRIOR QUIKSCAT IMAGES DEPICTED A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 232107Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. SINCE THE LLCC IS BROAD AND REMAINS DISORGANIZED,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 65.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 62.0E APPROXIMATELY 625 NM WEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION. PRIOR QUIKSCAT
IMAGES INDICATED THIS BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 241449Z SSMI
IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUING TO FORM OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. SINCE
THE LLCC IS BROAD AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[Coredesat]

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 62.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 61.2E APPROXIMATELY 690 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED BANDING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVED
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.

[Coredesat]

Not looking so hot.

[HURAKAN]

Looking a little better.

[Chacor]

WTIO21 FMEE 261201
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 26/01/2008 A 1200 UTC.
NUMERO: 001/09 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVERTISSEMENT
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 26/01/2008 A 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 9 1002 HPA
POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.6S / 62.4E
(ONZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 1200 UTC
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON 180 MN DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 270 MN
DANS LE SECTEUR EST.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.

CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE PRES DU CENTRE
.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 27/01/2008 A 00 UTC:
13.4S / 62.0E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE.
A 24H POUR LE 27/01/2008 A 12 UTC:
14.4S / 61.7E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
PLUSIEURS CENTRES SONT POSSIBLES, CELUI MENTIONNE ICI EST SUPPOSE ETRE LE
PRINCIPAL.
IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER GLOBALEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST
PUIS VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS
SUBTROPICALES EN S'INTENSIFIANT LENTEMENT.

Now Tropical Disturbance 9R.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 261240

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/9/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9

2.A POSITION 2008/01/26 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 62.4E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/27 00 UTC: 13.4S/62.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/01/27 12 UTC: 14.4S/61.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 15.2S/61.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 15.7S/60.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 16.3S/59.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 17.0S/58.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.0-
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS NOW CONSOLIDATED AND ORGANIZED IN THE WEST OF AN
ELONGATED LLCC (THANKS TO 0208Z QUIKSCAT SWAT).
LAST METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL EXPOSED LITTLE VORTEX BUT ANIMATION
MAKES BE ABLE TO LOCATE A MAIN LLCC.
DISPITE A GLOBALLY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DOESN'T PERMIT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MOST NWP DEEPEN A SIGNIFICANT LOW AT MEDIUM RANGE.

[Coredesat]

WTXS21 PGTW 262100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9S 62.3E TO 14.9S 61.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0S 62.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT METSAT IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEVELOPED BAND OF
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FLARE OVER THE CENTER. OBSERVATIONS AND A
261755 ASCAT INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE DISTURBANCE HAS ALSO MOVED OVER WARM
WATERS WITH FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW OVER THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272100Z.
//

[RL3AO]

[Chacor]

GFDL goes nuts sometimes here too!

WTIO30 FMEE 270037

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/9/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9

2.A POSITION 2008/01/27 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6S / 62.5E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/27 12 UTC: 13.5S/62.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 14.2S/62.1E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 14.8S/61.4E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 15.3S/60.9E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 15.9S/60.0E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/01/30 00 UTC: 16.8S/59.2E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.0

POSITION HAS BEEN MADE WITH PERSISTENCE. IT MAY NEED TO BE RELOCALIZE
LATER TODAY.

SYSTEME IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS A MID LAT TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF
25S AND ALONG 57E. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE TROUGH SHOULD SLIDE AWAY
AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AS IT
WILL BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER, THIS
MOTION SHOU
LD BE AT A LOWER SPEED AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER THE OPPOSITE INFLUENCE
OF A SOUTHWESTERN FLOW GENERATED BY A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE DEVELOPPING
NORTHWESTWARD.

AS THIS LOWER MOTION IS WELL SEEN BY MOST OF NWP MODELS, THERE IS SOME
DISPERSION ON HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM WILL RECURV ITS TRACK ...UKMO AND
ECMWF HAVE THE MOST DIFFRENT SOLUTIONS. UKMO ALMOST TRACK THE SYSTEM
WESTWARDS AND ECMWF MORE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS. PRESENT FORECAST IS CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF SOLU
TION AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY US MODELS
(AVNO,GFDL).


EASTERLY SHEAR IS DECREASING, SO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.
GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO A 100 KT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS ... THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGRESSIVE, BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO A 70 KT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS.

[Coredesat]

I would be quite interested in microwave imagery of this system. The curvature of the yellows on the eastern side of the convection is making me suspect a partial eyewall.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262051Z JAN 08//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 12.7S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.6S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.3S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.8S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.3S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM WEST-
SOUTWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WITH A CIRRUS CANOPY. THE CANOPY HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS LOWERED THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR VALUES. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TC CAUSING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 12.
FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW TC 14S TO
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHENING TROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 262051Z JAN
08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 262100) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z
AND 280300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



The next Gula!

[Ed Mahmoud]

WTXS32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262051Z JAN 08//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 12.7S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.6S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.3S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.8S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.3S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM WEST-
SOUTWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WITH A CIRRUS CANOPY. THE CANOPY HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS LOWERED THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR VALUES. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TC CAUSING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 12.
FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW TC 14S TO
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHENING TROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 262051Z JAN
08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 262100) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z
AND 280300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



The next Gula!

I've been drunk in Diego Garcia, BIOT

[CrazyC83]

GFDL has definitely gone insane, considering there hasn't even been an official Tropical Cyclone yet this season in the S Indian Ocean...

[HurricaneBill]

Could this eventually become a threat to La Reunion and Mauritius?

[HURAKAN]

Looking more impressive.

[Coredesat]

Latest microwave imagery didn't show an eyewall, but there is still quite an impressive structure under this one:

[Crostorm]

NRL 14S NONAME.35kts-996mb

[Crostorm]

WTXS32 PGTW 270300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262051Z JAN 08//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 12.7S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.6S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.3S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.8S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.3S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM WEST-
SOUTWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WITH A CIRRUS CANOPY. THE CANOPY HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS LOWERED THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR VALUES. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TC CAUSING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 12.
FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW TC 14S TO
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHENING TROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 262051Z JAN
08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 262100) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z
AND 280300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING IN REMARKS.//
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