South Indian Ocean: TROPICAL CYCLONE GULA (TC 14S)

[Crostorm]

CYCLONE WARNING

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS

FIRST CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 10H00 ON WEDNESDAY 30 JANUARY 2008.

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, TROPICAL CYCLONE GULA HAS STARTED TO
SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2 DEGREES
SOUTH 60.0 DEGREES EAST THAT IS ABOUT 585 KM TO THE
NORTH-NORTH-EAST OF MAURITIUS.

THIS BENDING IN THE TRAJECTORY OF GULA WILL BRING ITS CENTRE NEARER
TO MAURITIUS BY TO-MORROW.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS THEREFORE PUT IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS

WEATHER WILL BE CLOUDY WITH MODERATE SHOWERS AT TIMES.

GUSTS OF THE ORDER OF 70 KM/H WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.

SEA WILL BE VERY ROUGH.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE IN THE SEA AND TO TAKE ALL
PRELIMINARY PRECAUTIONS.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS=

[Fadil]

CYCLONE WARNING

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS

FIRST CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 10H00 ON WEDNESDAY 30 JANUARY 2008.

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, TROPICAL CYCLONE GULA HAS STARTED TO
SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2 DEGREES
SOUTH 60.0 DEGREES EAST THAT IS ABOUT 585 KM TO THE
NORTH-NORTH-EAST OF MAURITIUS.

THIS BENDING IN THE TRAJECTORY OF GULA WILL BRING ITS CENTRE NEARER
TO MAURITIUS BY TO-MORROW.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS THEREFORE PUT IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS

WEATHER WILL BE CLOUDY WITH MODERATE SHOWERS AT TIMES.

GUSTS OF THE ORDER OF 70 KM/H WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.

SEA WILL BE VERY ROUGH.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE IN THE SEA AND TO TAKE ALL
PRELIMINARY PRECAUTIONS.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 1 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS=

my country will not expect lots of damages but the rain is needed here. The cyclone don't seem to be so powerful. The last powerful cyclone i remember was Dina.

[Fadil]

A cyclone warning class 2 is in force in Mauritius.

[HURAKAN]

Looking really bad!!

[Crostorm]

It comming back!

[Crostorm]

[parvez_savage]

Hmm i think its looking good now..what u all think?? will it intensify again??

[parvez_savage]

Here are the latest data from JTWC:


WTXS32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 60.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 60.0E





REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 59.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GULA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
301023Z AMSU IMAGE REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. CURRENT DVORAK ESTIM-
ATES RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT, MAINLY SINGLE-CHANNEL, EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW WITH RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 14S IS FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE AND TRACK SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREE-
MENT WITH THIS FORECAST. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW. THE POSSIBILITY
OF INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 13S STILL EXISTS BEGINNING
NEAR TAU 24, HOWEVER TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYS-
TEM AND SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND
311500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNINGS



Meteo France stating that the system has got maximum gust of 56KT but JTWC is stating it is higher...

[Chacor]

Uncomparable; they use different methods of forecasting/analysis of winds.

[parvez_savage]

Uncomparable; they use different methods of forecasting/analysis of winds.

So 1 of the 2 is wrong,isnt it????

[Squarethecircle]

[HurricaneRobert]

There's usually about 12 percent difference in recorded wind speeds when 1-minute and 10-minute measurements are taken, so they both seem about right. The only incomparable measurements come from India Meteorological Department, and thank god they're not in charge of the southern Indian Ocean.

[Crostorm]

Animation
http://www.zamg.ac.at/wetter/sat_bilder ... _small.gif

other sat animation
http://www.zamg.ac.at/weather/sat_image ... /index.php

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JAN 2008 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 17:25:46 S Lon : 59:08:50 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 981.3mb/ 61.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb

Center Temp : -85.9C Cloud Region Temp : -84.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Squarethecircle]

Looking very, very good right now. I wouldn't be surprised if it made it back up to 75 knots.

[parvez_savage]

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

FOURTH CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 04H00 ON THURSDAY 31 JANUARY 2008.

AT 0400 HOURS THIS MORNING, 'GULA' WAS CENTERED NEAR 18.3 DEGREES
SOUTH, 59.8 DEGREES EAST THAT IS ABOUT 290 KM TO THE NORTH-EAST OF
MAURITIUS.

'GULA' HAS SLIGHTLY CHANGED ITS TRAJECTOTY AND IS NOW MOVING IN A
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH A SPEED OF 15 KM/H.

ALONG THIS TRACK, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 'GULA' CONTINUES TO
APPROACH MAURITIUS AND IS A DIRECT POTENTIAL THREAT.


A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS 3 IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO COMPLETE ALL PRECAUTIONS.

WEATHER IN MAURITIUS WILL BE CLOUDY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS, THUNDERY AT TIMES.


EASTERLY GUSTS PRESENTLY OF THE ORDER OF 80 KM/H WILL INCREASE
GRADUALLY.

CYCLONIC CONDITIONS, THAT IS WINDS OF UP TO 120 KM/H ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BY MID-DAY.

SEAS WILL BE PHENOMENAL.

[HurricaneRobert]

How the heck are they strengthening in such close proximity to one another? It must be an illusion and Fame will be gone before we know it.

[Fadil]

NO CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

[Coredesat]

Convection decreasing, probably due to Gula encountering less heat content.

[Fadil]

Convection decreasing, probably due to Gula encountering less heat content.

It looks horrible now. That's why Mauritius has removed the warning.