South Indian Ocean: TROPICAL CYCLONE GULA (TC 14S)

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JAN 2008 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 14:37:07 S Lon : 61:48:59 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 972.0mb/ 69.8kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -62.9C Cloud Region Temp : -79.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.1T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

***************************************************

[CrazyC83]

There's that dreaded pinhole eye...this could very well blow up in the next 12-24 hours...

[HURAKAN]

The lion is beginning to roar.

[Coredesat]

Forecast to reach 100 kt.

WTIO30 FMEE 290634

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/9/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GULA)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/29 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 61.4E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/29 18 UTC: 15.1S/61.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/01/30 06 UTC: 16.8S/60.0E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 18.9S/59.0E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 21.4S/58.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 23.9S/56.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 25.0S/55.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0-

SYSTEM HAS REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. IT IS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH A
WELL DEFINED 20 NM EYE. IT MOVES WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AT LOW SPEED. SYSTEM
HAS CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTRPICALE RIDGE SOUTHWARDS
AND THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTHWESTWARD.

NWP RUN OF 12 AND 18Z ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHSOUTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH A WELL CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE OF TRACKS.
THIS IS FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY PROBABLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF EX
-FAME BETWEEN REUNION ISLAND AND MADAGASCAR THAT ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AS
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD HAVE LES AND LESS INFLUENCE, SYSTEM SHOULD
PROGRESSIVLY ACCELERATE.

ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE WEAKENING A LITTLE BIT AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS SHEAR STRENGHEN A LITTLE BIT.

[Crostorm]

14SGULA.80kts-963mb

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 599
WTIO20 FMEE 290634
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 29/01/2008
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 29/01/2008 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GULA) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 61.4E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR.
HURRICANE WINDS 65/75 KT AND HIGH SEAS TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM
RADIUS
OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT..
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/01/29 AT 18 UTC:
15.1S / 61.0E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H, VALID 2008/01/30 AT 06 UTC:
16.8S / 60.0E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
GULA IS NOW AT TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. IT COULD REACHED INTENSE
TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TRACKING MORE
SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS.=
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JAN 2008 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 14:34:07 S Lon : 61:16:47 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 956.0mb/ 90.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 5.0 6.0 6.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -23.8C Cloud Region Temp : -74.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Cyclenall]

It appears Gula is a powerful tropical cyclone right now. Let see how much the eye will warm up.

[HurricaneBill]

Could Fame push Gula away from Mauritius and La Reunion?

[Fadil]

Could Fame push Gula away from Mauritius and La Reunion?

am interested with this question..am actually from mauritius

[Coredesat]

Could Fame push Gula away from Mauritius and La Reunion?

am interested with this question..am actually from mauritius

Welcome to Storm2k, Fadil.

As for Gula, the latest model guidance and RSMC forecast have it passing very near Mauritius. I'm not sure Fame would be strong enough to cause much of a deviation in Gula's track (the RSMC forecasts it to be absorbed by Gula in the next couple of days). I notice Réunion is under yellow alert at the moment.

[Coredesat]

Upgraded to a tropical cyclone, forecast to become an intense tropical cyclone in 24 hours.

WTIO30 FMEE 290634

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/9/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GULA)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/29 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 61.4E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/29 18 UTC: 15.1S/61.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/01/30 06 UTC: 16.8S/60.0E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 18.9S/59.0E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 21.4S/58.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 23.9S/56.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 25.0S/55.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0-

SYSTEM HAS REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. IT IS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH A
WELL DEFINED 20 NM EYE. IT MOVES WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AT LOW SPEED. SYSTEM
HAS CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTRPICALE RIDGE SOUTHWARDS
AND THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTHWESTWARD.

NWP RUN OF 12 AND 18Z ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHSOUTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH A WELL CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE OF TRACKS.
THIS IS FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY PROBABLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF EX
-FAME BETWEEN REUNION ISLAND AND MADAGASCAR THAT ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AS
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD HAVE LES AND LESS INFLUENCE, SYSTEM SHOULD
PROGRESSIVLY ACCELERATE.

ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE WEAKENING A LITTLE BIT AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS SHEAR STRENGHEN A LITTLE BIT.

[Coredesat]

[Fadil]

Could Fame push Gula away from Mauritius and La Reunion?

am interested with this question..am actually from mauritius

Welcome to Storm2k, Fadil.

As for Gula, the latest model guidance and RSMC forecast have it passing very near Mauritius. I'm not sure Fame would be strong enough to cause much of a deviation in Gula's track (the RSMC forecasts it to be absorbed by Gula in the next couple of days). I notice Réunion is under yellow alert at the moment.

ohh cool...our country need the rain so the cyclone will be welcomed haha.

[HURAKAN]

29/0830 UTC 14.8S 61.2E T5.0/5.0 GULA -- South Indian Ocean

90 knots.



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JAN 2008 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 14:56:37 S Lon : 61:09:52 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 941.0mb/104.6kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.6 6.4 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -32.7C Cloud Region Temp : -76.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

***************************************************

[Coredesat]

Gula may be experiencing shear or reduced heat content - it clearly looks weaker on satellite imagery. The eye has collapsed and is no longer evident on vis or IR.

[HURAKAN]

No eye, no more.

[CrazyC83]

Eyewall replacement cycle perhaps?