South Indian Ocean: TROPICAL CYCLONE GULA (TC 14S)

[Coredesat]

Eyewall replacement cycle perhaps?

Probably not, there was nothing that indicated concentric eyewalls at any point in the past 12 hours or so.

[Crostorm]

It seams very static,

[HurricaneRobert]

Maybe Fame's pulling back. Trying to absorb Gula

[Crostorm]

Here are buletins from Mauritius Meteorological Services

WEATHER NEWS ISSUED AT 17H00 ON TUESDAY 29 JANUARY 2008.

GENERAL SITUATION :
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 'GULA' WAS CENTRED AT 16H00 NEAR 14.7 DEGREES
SOUTH AND 60.9 DEGREES EAST THAT IS AT ABOUT 680 KM TO THE NORTH
NORTH EAST OF MAURITIUS.
IT IS MOVING IN A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT 8 KM/H.
THERE IS STILL A RISK THAT 'GULA' CHANGES ITS TRAJECTORY AND COME
CLOSE TO MAURITIUS.

FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS :
CLOUDY TO OVERCXAST OVER THE WHOLE ISLAND WITH PASSING SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGH GROUNDS AND THE WINDWARD SLOPES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.
THERE IS RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWERS.

WIND EASTERLY 25-30 KM/H STRENGTHENING WITH GUSTS OF 75 KM/H.

SEA ROUGH BEYOND THE REEFS .
IT IS ADVISED NOT TO GO OUT IN THE OPEN SEAS.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OVER THE HIGH GROUNDS WILL BE ABOUT 21'C AND
THE MAXIMUM 27'C.
ELSEWHERE, THE MINIMUM WILL BE ABOUT 26'C AND THE MAXIMUM WILL VARY
BETWEEN 30 AND 32'C.

HIGH TIDE AROUND: 04H30 AND 18H21.
LOW TIDE AROUND : 13H08 AND 20H04.

SUNRISE : 05H52.
SUNSET : 18H53.

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE AT 16H00 THIS AFTERNOON: 1007 HECTOPASCALS.

END=

[parvez_savage]

Hi am from Mauritius... Strange that Mauritius is not any under any cyclonic alert. Normally, if there's risk of cyclonic conditions in the island in 48hrs, the island should be in class 1 alert.
anyways.....

According to forecast, the system should have tracked a south south westerly direction by now..But it's still moving west...any reason for that?????

[Fadil]

Hi am from Mauritius... Strange that Mauritius is not any under any cyclonic alert. Normally, if there's risk of cyclonic conditions in the island in 48hrs, the island should be in class 1 alert.
anyways.....

According to forecast, the system should have tracked a south south westerly direction by now..But it's still moving west...any reason for that?????

hey bro,whats up? its me lol. Sok Apaddoo will not put a class one because its still moving to a general westerly direction.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JAN 2008 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 14:49:46 S Lon : 60:40:49 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 946.4mb/ 99.6kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Center Temp : -79.0C Cloud Region Temp : -79.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Pedro Fernández]

Very interesting:

ZCZC 640
WTIO30 FMEE 291826
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/9/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GULA)
2.A POSITION 2008/01/29 AT 1800 UTC :
14.9S / 60.6E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/30 06 UTC: 16.3S/59.7E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 18.5S/58.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
36H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 21.0S/57.1E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
48H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 23.2S/55.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 24.7S/54.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 26.4S/55.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0 CI=5.0+
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOURS, LIKELY DUE TO LOWER HEAT
POTENTIAL DUE TO THE ALMOST-STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. TRMM
1453Z
SHOWS AN ERODED EYE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS DURINT THE BECOMING NIGHT
AND
EVOLVE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE TO A REINTENSIFICATION (GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW,
WEAK WINDSHEAR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE).
THE SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE UNDER THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST THAT EXPLAINS THIS
FORECASTED
QUICK TRACK. GULA'S TRACK SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLYIMPACTED BY THE
EXISTENCE OF EX-FAME.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.=
NNNN

GULA has not said all yet...

[Squarethecircle]

It looks very disorganized now. You would never guess that this thing had 100 knot winds but several hours ago.

[Coredesat]

Definitely not 80 kt.

[HURAKAN]

Not knots, maybe in miles!!!

[Squarethecircle]

It doesn't even look that, though it could be.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

29/2030 UTC 14.9S 60.8E T5.0/5.0 GULA -- South Indian Ocean



Somone is wrong, my eyes or Dvorak.

[Chacor]

29/2030 UTC 14.9S 60.8E T5.0/5.0 GULA -- South Indian Ocean



Somone is wrong, my eyes or Dvorak.

The reading is from 2030. The image is from 0200. That's a six hour difference.

[Coredesat]

There's hardly any banding present, I don't think that's a T5.0 unless SAB sees something we're not.

[HURAKAN]

Chacor, thanks for pointing that out. Still, my point stands.

[Coredesat]

I really don't know what the JTWC is seeing, but this is not an 85-knot system - it looked only slightly better at 00Z and they increased it to 85 kt! If they don't reduce the intensity at 06Z, I don't know what I'll do.

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 316
WTIO30 FMEE 300640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/9/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA)
2.A POSITION 2008/01/30 AT 0600 UTC :
15.3S / 60.3E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST
)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 2.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 100 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 16.9S/60.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 18.8S/59.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 21.1S/58.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 23.5S/56.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 25.5S/55.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2008/02/02 06 UTC: 27.7S/56.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0- AND CI=3.5
GULA HAS BEEN RE-ANALIZED ACCORDING TO LAST DATA AT A WEAKER
INTENSITY
(MICRO-WAVE AND QUIKSCAT DATA).
GULA HAS STRONGLY WEAKENED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS (LDUE TO COOLER
SSTSè
INDUCED BY THE ALMOST-STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, AND ALSO TO
A
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR). THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
EXPLAINS
THE FACT THAT IT HASN'T RESISTED TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, UNDER THE MAIN STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST.=


NNNN

[Crostorm]