SW Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gene (TC 15P)

[Crostorm]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/0148 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [945HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 19.9S 170.8E
AT 010000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/vis IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE NOW SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 95
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35
MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 MILES OF
CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS PERSIST OVER LLCC.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWEST UNDER DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHEAST
STEERING FLOW. CIMSS SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR OVER SYSTEM. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND CENTRE EMBEDDED IN B
SHADE YIELDING A DT=5.0, MET=5.5 AND PT=5.0, THUS
T5.0/5.5/D0.5/24HRS. CONSENSUS INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE WHILST ON A
SLOW POLEWARD TRACK.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC NEAR 20.6S 170.2E MOV SW 4KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC NEAR 21.5S 170.0E MOV SSW 5KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC NEAR 22.3S 169.9E MOV S 4KT WITH 75KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC NEAR 23.2S 169.6E MOV S 5KT WITH 50KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 010830 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

100kts-948mb

[Coredesat]

Eyewall open NW. Gene probably peaked yesterday.

[Squarethecircle]

[KWT]

System has weakened but thats not surprising given the NW eyewall seems to have decayed somewhat though the SE side still looks solid.

Cool tht we've had 3 majors as well!

[Squarethecircle]

Last year we had one.

[HURAKAN]

Looks better in the visible!!!

[HURAKAN]

Becoming less organized.

[P.K.]

WTPS01 NFFN 021200 AAA
STORM WARNING 007 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 02/1350 UTC 2008 UTC.

**CORRECTION TO FORECAST POSITION AT 030000***
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [975HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22
DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 172 DECIMAL 2 EAST AT 021200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.1 SOUTH 172.2 EAST AT 021200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 08 KNOTS.
CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 40
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.0S 172.4E AT 030000 UTC
AND NEAR 24.3S 173.0E AT 031200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 006.

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A24 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 02/2020 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [975HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 22.8S 171.5E AT
021800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 5
KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 35
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES
OF CENTRE. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION REMAINS FAIR. SHEAR EVIDENT IN NORTHERN QUADRANTS BEING
ALMOST DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
SOUTHERN SECTORS. COLD TOPS WARMED PAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. OUTFLOW STILL
GOOD TO SOUTH AND EAST BUT FAIR TO NORTH. CIMSS INDICATES MODERATE
SHEAR OVER SYSTEM. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO NORTHEAST. COOLER SST ALONG TRACK.
DVORAK BASED ON 0.8 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT=3.5, MET AND
PAT AGREE THUS T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS. CONSENSUS TRACKS THE CYCLONE WITH
GRADUAL ACCELERATION TOWARDS SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS WEAKENING.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC NEAR 24.2S 171.7E MOV S 7KT WITH 50KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC NEAR 25.5S 172.3E MOV SSE 7KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC NEAR 26.9S 173.1E MOV SE 8KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC NEAR 27.9S 174.2E MOV SE 8KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 030230 UTC.

[Chacor]

It maintained an eye on VIS/IR earlier but it's now open.

[Coredesat]

Finally succumbing to ETT:

[Chacor]

Looks a lot like a few questionable systems over the past year we've seen elsewhere

[Coredesat]

Fighting a losing battle.



Chacor: And yes, indeed it did.

[P.K.]

Just moved into TCWC Wellington's AOR and they've increased the winds to 65kts.

HURRICANE WARNING 045

This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone GENE [970hPa] centre was located near 25.2 South
172.7 East at 031800 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 25.2S 172.7E at 031800 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast about 8 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 65 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 63 knots within
Expect winds over 48 knots within 50 miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 240 miles of centre in the
southern semicircle and within 120 miles of centre in the northern
semicircle.
Forecast position near 26.1S 173.1E at 040600 UTC
and near 27.4S 174.8E at 041800 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 040.

[Squarethecircle]

Fools. It's going ET, no need to increase intensity. It doesn't even look that strong.

[HurricaneRobert]

ETs can strengthen from their tropical phase (like Noel did last year).

[Squarethecircle]

But they shouldn't be issuing it as a storm of that intensity without some kind of note on ET. Plus, I really doubt it strengthened more than ten knots during a weakening trend.

[Coredesat]

:uarrow: But they shouldn't be issuing it as a storm of that intensity without some kind of note on ET. Plus, I really doubt it strengthened more than ten knots during a weakening trend.

Nadi and Wellington have different standards on what an extratropical cyclone is. When they feel the system is fully extratropical, Wellington will begin referring to it as a "low".