SW Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gene (TC 15P)

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Coredesat

SW Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gene (TC 15P)

#1 Postby Coredesat » Fri Jan 25, 2008 5:40 pm

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11S 176E. POSITION POOR.
Last edited by Coredesat on Wed Jan 30, 2008 5:57 am, edited 6 times in total.
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#2 Postby wyq614 » Sat Jan 26, 2008 2:33 am

Now you cannot find anything about it in Nadi, Fiji.
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#3 Postby Coredesat » Sat Jan 26, 2008 4:08 am

It's still listed in the marine bulletin as a tropical disturbance. JTWC, meanwhile, has it as a poor area.

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.2S 179.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION. THE BULK OF
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE APPEARS TO BE CONFLUENT FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. THE 850 MB VORTICITY
SIGNATURE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES DUE
TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DISTURBANCE. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON
THE UNORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
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#4 Postby Chacor » Sat Jan 26, 2008 11:29 am

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
179.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 179.4W, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEWLY DEVELOPED ANTICYCLONE
ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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#5 Postby Coredesat » Sat Jan 26, 2008 5:11 pm

WWPS21 NFFN 262100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 26/2115 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [1004 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.4S 179.4W AT
261800UTC. POSITION IS POOR ACCORDING TO IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION PERSISTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
500 HPA WITH AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. 12F IS LOCATED
WITHIN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR LOW LEVEL WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. CONVECTION AROUND 12F HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5
WITH A WRAP OF 0.3 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVES IT SOUTHWESTWARDS
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
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#6 Postby Coredesat » Sat Jan 26, 2008 5:12 pm

Image

Image
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#7 Postby RL3AO » Sat Jan 26, 2008 5:52 pm

WTPS21 PGTW 262230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1S 179.4W TO 17.4S 176.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S
179.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272230Z.//

NNNN
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Re: SW Pacific: Tropical Depression 12F (99P TCFA)

#8 Postby Crostorm » Sun Jan 27, 2008 1:43 am

99P INVEST.30kts-1000mb

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Re: SW Pacific: Tropical Depression 12F (99P TCFA)

#9 Postby Crostorm » Sun Jan 27, 2008 4:52 am

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 27/0943 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [1001 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.5S 178.9W AT
270600UTC. POSITION IS POOR ACCORDING TO IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS WITH QUIKSCAT PASS MISSING THE AREA. A LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION STILL PERSISTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 500 HPA
WITH AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. 12F IS LOCATED IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES
CELCIUS. CONVECTION AROUND 12F IS STILL MAINTAINED OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS WITH A WELL DEFINED INFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK. A WRAP OF
0.3 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL GIVES 10F A DT OF 1.5. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
MODERATE.

PAST 12 HOUR ANALYSIS HAS SEEN 10F MOVE SOUTHWEST AND GLOBAL MODELS
[UK, ECMWF, US] CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT WITH A
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

NO OTHER DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.
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#10 Postby RL3AO » Sun Jan 27, 2008 8:51 am

Well, it doesn't have any dry air to deal with that is for sure.
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Re: SW Pacific: Tropical Depression 12F (99P TCFA)

#11 Postby Crostorm » Sun Jan 27, 2008 9:49 am

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#12 Postby IceCycloon » Sun Jan 27, 2008 2:20 pm

Nrl says now :

15p Noname 996mb - 35 kts !

So another storm!
2008 begins good:P
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#13 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Jan 27, 2008 2:48 pm

It looks decent right now on SAT images.
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 27, 2008 2:56 pm

Not bad.

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#15 Postby KWT » Sun Jan 27, 2008 3:05 pm

Yeah it looks pretty decent with some very deep convection firing up over the system.
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#16 Postby Chacor » Sun Jan 27, 2008 8:11 pm

WTPS01 NFFN 280000
STORM WARNING 073 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 28/0104 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [990HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17
DECIMAL 0 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 7 EAST AT 280000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.0 SOUTH 178.7 EAST AT 280000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.7S 176.5E AT 281200 UTC
AND NEAR 18.9S 174.5E AT 290000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.

Upgraded. TC Gene.
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#17 Postby Coredesat » Sun Jan 27, 2008 8:25 pm

From a few hours ago:

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#18 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Jan 28, 2008 12:05 am

I got this TC mixed up with the other one, Gula, and my earlier comment was directed at Gula, not Gene :wink: .
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Re: SW Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Gene (TC 15P)

#19 Postby Crostorm » Mon Jan 28, 2008 12:18 am

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 28/0400 UTC 2008 UTC.

CORRECTION TO CENT PRESS...

TROPICAL CYCLONE 12F GENE CENTRE [990HPA] CAT 1 NEAR 17.0S 178.7E AT
280000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

ORGANISATION SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED OVERNIGHT WITH COLD CONVECTION
ABOUT LLCC. INTENSIFICATION ARRESTED SOMEWHAT BY INTERACTION WITH
VITI LEVU AND VANUA LEVU. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND DEVELOPING
ELSEWHERE. CIMSS SHOWS MINIMAL SHEAR OVER SYSTEM. CYCLONE LIES UNDER
250-HPA RIDGE AXIS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW. DVORAK BASED ON 0.4 WRAP ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.5 PT=2.5 MET=2.5, THUS
T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH SLOW
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC NEAR 17.7S 176.5E MOV SW 11KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 290000 UTC NEAR 18.9S 174.5E MOV SW 11KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 291200 UTC NEAR 18.0S 171.7E MOV WNW 14KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 300000 UTC NEAR 16.2S 169.4E MOV WNW 14KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 280830 UTC.
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Re: SW Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Gene (TC 15P)

#20 Postby Crostorm » Mon Jan 28, 2008 1:20 am

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