SW Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gene (TC 15P)

[Coredesat]

From a few hours ago, but...

[Squarethecircle]

Gene is back. Anyone know anything of the environment? (Answer is obviously yes, but I don't have time check for myself).

[Coredesat]

Gene is currently moving over an area of moderately high TCHP:



Shear is 10-20 kt in the general area but increases substantially near New Caledonia.

[HurricaneBill]

Death toll in Fiji has risen to 7.

[Coredesat]

Very small eye has poked through. This could be very bad for New Caledonia.

[Crostorm]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0811 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [955HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 19.4S 171.2E
AT 310600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HRS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN
55 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 110 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 6 HOURS WITH COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS
PERSISTING OVER LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST. STEERING STILL INFLUENCED
BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO ALLOW
POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN NEXT 18 HRS. CIMSS SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR OVER
SYSTEM AS WELL AS ALONG FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD
CENTRE PATTERN WITHIN WHITE DT=5.0,MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5, THUS
T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS. THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FURTHER INTENSIFIES
THE CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY TURNS IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 18
HOURS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC NEAR 19.7S 170.3E MOV SW 3KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 20.3S 169.9E MOV SSW 3KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC NEAR 21.0S 169.7E MOV S 5KT WITH 90KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC NEAR 21.9S 169.5E MOV S 5KT WITH 80KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 311430 UTC.

[HurricaneBill]

Er.....kind of an embarrassing typo in this article's headline.

http://www.radiofiji.com.fj/fullstory.php?id=8045

[Pedro Fernández]

Data from Wunderground (I remember they come from JTWC...):


Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 01/27/08 15.3S 179.4W 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08 15.3S 179.4W 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/28/08 17.3S 178.5E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08 17.8S 176.0E 50 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/29/08 18.5S 175.1E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/29/08 18.6S 174.0E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/30/08 18.7S 172.8E 70 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/30/08 19S 172.0E 100 Category 2
06 GMT 01/31/08 19.4S 171.1E 90 Category 1


Can anyone confirm GENE reached category 2 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson)?

[Crostorm]

Data from Wunderground (I remember they come from JTWC...):


Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 01/27/08 15.3S 179.4W 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08 15.3S 179.4W 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/28/08 17.3S 178.5E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08 17.8S 176.0E 50 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/29/08 18.5S 175.1E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/29/08 18.6S 174.0E 60 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/30/08 18.7S 172.8E 70 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/30/08 19S 172.0E 100 Category 2
06 GMT 01/31/08 19.4S 171.1E 90 Category 1


Can anyone confirm GENE reached category 2 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson)?

[Pedro Fernández]

Many thanks, Crostorm

31/0230 UTC 19.2S 171.5E T5.0/5.0 GENE -- South Pacific Ocean

CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 31/1414 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [955HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 19.5S 170.9E
AT 311200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63
KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55
MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 110 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 6 HOURS WITH COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS
PERSISTING OVER LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST. STEERING STILL INFLUENCED
BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO ALLOW
POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN NEXT 24 HRS. CIMSS SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR OVER
SYSTEM AS WELL AS ALONG FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD
CENTRE PATTERN WITHIN DT=5.0,MET=5.5 AND PT=4.5, THUS
T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS. THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FURTHER INTENSIFIES
THE CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY TURNS IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC NEAR 19.9S 170.3E MOV SW 3KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC NEAR 20.3S 170.3E MOV S 2KT WITH 90KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC NEAR 20.8S 170.1E MOV S 3KT WITH 80KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC NEAR 21.5S 170.3E MOV S 4KT WITH 70KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 312030 UTC.

[P.K.]

WTPS11 NFFN 311800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 31/1954 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [945HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 19.8S 170.5E
AT 311800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
INCREASING TO 95 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63
KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55
MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

COLD CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. COLD TOPS PERSIST
OVER LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND SOUTH AND FAIR TO NORTH. CYCLONE
MOVING SOUTHWEST UNDER DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHEAST STEERING BY
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST. CIMSS SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE PATTERN WITH B SHADE PLUS 0.5
FOR BANDING YIELDING A DT=5.5, MET=5.5 AND PT=5.5, THUS
T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS. CONSENSUS FURTHER INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE AND
GRADUALLY TURNS IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 20.3S 169.9E MOV SW 4KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC NEAR 21.0S 169.6E MOV SSW 4KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC NEAR 21.9S 169.3E MOV SSW 5KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC NEAR 22.8S 169.1E MOV S 5KT WITH 60KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 010230 UTC.

[Crostorm]

NRL - 15PGENE.100kts-948mb

[Crostorm]

[HurricaneBill]

Reports coming in of houses destroyed on the southern islands of Vanuatu.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Squarethecircle]

That's pretty freaking awesome. Three majors so far, then.



Actually, I think the JTWC clinched this one (if what they say now is right, which it looks to be).