SW Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone Gene (TC 15P)

[Crostorm]

[Squarethecircle]

The eye might redevelop soon, then.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better.

[HURAKAN]

29/2030 UTC 18.8S 173.9E T3.5/3.5 GENE -- South Pacific Ocean

[Coredesat]

Looks like there might be some dry air entrainment.

[HURAKAN]

ICU!!!

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/0818 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [970HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 18.6S 173.2E
AT 300600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 3 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS
OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.

COLD TOPS OVER LLCC HAS ENABLED INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE LAST SIX
HOURS. COOLING TO SOUTHEAST OF LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. STEERING STILL INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO ALLOW POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN
NEXT 48HRS. CIMSS SHOWING MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM BUT DECREASING
SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON MET=4.5 AND
PT=4.5, THUS T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS. CONSENSUS TAKES THE CYCLONE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SOUTH.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC NEAR 19.3S 171.7E MOV WSW 9KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC NEAR 20.0S 170.1E MOV WSW 6KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC NEAR 20.7S 169.1E MOV SW 7KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 21.5S 168.2E MOV SSW 5KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 301430 UTC.

[Coredesat]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

65kts-974mb

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/1958 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [970HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 18.8S 172.0E
AT 301800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING WEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED
AT 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30
MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF
CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 12 HOURS WITH COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS
OVER LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST, DEVELOPING TO SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. STEERING STILL INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO ALLOW POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN NEXT 36 TO
48HRS. CIMSS SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM AS WELL AS ALONG
FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK ANALYSIS, EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH B SHADE
YIELDING A DT=5.0,MET=4.5 AND PT=4.5, THUS T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.
CONSENSUS TAKES THE CYCLONE ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC NEAR 19.2S 171.0E MOV WSW 5KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC NEAR 19.7S 169.9E MOV WSW 6KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 20.4S 169.1E MOV SW 5KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC NEAR 21.4S 168.4E MOV SW 6KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 310230 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 85 knots | 100 mph | 160 km/h

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Squarethecircle]

If so, that will make three major leaguers in the SPac this season. That's already three times as many as last season.

[Crostorm]

Eye is coming back