SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[Coredesat]

Not exactly seeing this, but fair's fair.



(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 83.7E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 82.1E, APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 030417Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 030417Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THIS CIRCULATION
CENTER AND DEPICTS AN AREA OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE DEVELOPING LLCC IS ASSOCIATED WITH SPARSE
FLARING CONVECTION AND IS LOCATED IN A AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WHICH APPEARS TO BE LIMITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MIN-
IMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE
CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND ENHANCED FLOW TO THE SOUTH, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

The well-defined LLCC can be seen in this microwave image (dark blue swirl):

[Squarethecircle]

You can kind of see like a tiny bit of rotation stuff on the bottom image, but there's nothing there on convective. I'd like to know what they see in this.

I also find their reasoning for a 'fair' to be very 'poor', you need a consolidating LLC for any TC, and convection is far too sparse, such that you can hardly even make out any kind of LLC.

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

Hehe... blob.

It should be apparent here that storms are very spiteful towards us doubting people.

[Crostorm]

93SINVEST.25kts-1004mb

[Chacor]

Wow, where did that come from?!

[Coredesat]

Almost literally out of nowhere. This was nothing when it appeared on NRL last night.

[Coredesat]

WTXS21 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 80.6E TO 15.5S
78.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES
NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 032330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 80.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
81.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 80.2E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOW FLARING CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WHICH WAS EVIDENT IN PREVIOUS MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY.
A 040112Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGIN-
NING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A 031300Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMS THIS
CIRCULATION CENTER AND DEPICTS AN AREA OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE DEVELOPING LLCC, WHICH IS NOW LOCATED IN A NARROW REGION
OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 050300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

04/0230 UTC 11.8S 80.3E T1.5/1.5 93S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 040642

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10

2.A POSITION 2008/02/04 AT 0600 UTC :
12.3S / 80.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/04 18 UTC: 12.2S/80.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/02/05 06 UTC: 12.4S/81.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/02/05 18 UTC: 12.7S/82.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2008/02/06 06 UTC: 12.9S/82.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2008/02/06 18 UTC: 13.2S/83.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2008/02/07 06 UTC: 13.6S/84.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SMALL AND WELL DEFINED, EXISTING SINCE
ALMOST 48 HOURS.

YESTERDAY, IT WAS STILL TOTALLY EXPOSED.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS VERY RECENT, ONLY DEVELOPPED SINCE LAST
NIGHT, DUE TO DIURNAL CYCLE AND A SMALL AREA OF POOR VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
IT IS STILL NON CONSOLIDATED AND ORGANIZED (CCC).

A BUOY (53948) LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER INDICATES A WEAKENING SLP
OF THIS BORNING LOW (-4HPA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS).
IT IS FORECASTED TO REGULARY INTENSIFY AND TRACK SLOWLY
EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS.

A CE STADE, CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS.

[HURAKAN]

04/0830 UTC 12.2S 80.6E T1.5/1.5 93S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040251Z FEB 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 79.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 79.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.6S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.8S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.8S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.0S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 80.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL ORGA-
NIZED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTION HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS LOWERED THE CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES
AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVI-
RONMENT FROM THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL SLOWLY CAUSE THE STORM
TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE.
FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW TC 16S TO
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 040251Z FEB
08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 040300) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z AND 051500Z.

It's rare for the JTWC to upgrade a system to TD in the Southern Hemisphere. They usually wait until 35 knots.

[P.K.]

Close to being a TD.

WTIO30 FMEE 041814

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10

2.A POSITION 2008/02/04 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 80.5E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/05 06 UTC: 13.2S/81.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/02/05 18 UTC: 13.4S/81.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2008/02/06 06 UTC: 13.5S/82.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2008/02/06 18 UTC: 13.7S/83.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2008/02/07 06 UTC: 14.0S/84.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/02/07 18 UTC: 14.3S/84.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+/2.5-

AN SSMI PASS AT 14:09Z AND AN AMSU-B PASS AT 16:25Z SEEMS TO SHOW THAT
THE SYSTEM IS NO MORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARDS BUT IS ON A
QUASI-STATIONNARY STATE A LITTLE BIT SOUTHEASTWARDS OF THE PREVIOUS
POSITION. A SLOW EASTSOUTHEAST MOTION SHOULD START SOON.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPPED OVER THE SYSTEM SINCE THE EVENING.
QUICKSCAT PASS AT 12:35Z SHOWS SOME UNFLAGGED 30 KT WINDS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANT. SO INTENSITY IS CLOSED TO THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. HOWEVER, AS THIS NEW BURST OF CONVECTION IS
QUITE RECENT, MAX WINDS IS KEPT
AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, BUT THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.

SLIGHT EASTERLY TO EASTNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR (BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT
ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA) SEEMS TO BE STILL PRESENT OVER THE SYSTEM
(CIRRUS EXPENSION). THE SHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVLY LESSEN AND THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24H-36H.

SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO REGULARY INTENSIFY AND TRACK GLOBALLY
SLOWLY EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID LEVEL
EQUATORIAL RIDGE THAT IS EXTENDED ALONG THE WHOLE BASIN (CF ECMWF CHARTS
AT 700 HPA AND 500 HPA LEVEL).

THE PRESENT GUIDANCE IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NWP MODELS (ECMWF, GFDN,
UKMET, ARPTROP, CONW) AND IS A LITTLE BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.

[HURAKAN]

04/2030 UTC 12.8S 80.2E T2.5/2.5 16S -- South Indian Ocean

[Squarethecircle]

That looks pretty good...

[Coredesat]

WTIO30 FMEE 050035

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10

2.A POSITION 2008/02/05 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4S / 80.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/05 12 UTC: 13.6S/80.4E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/02/06 00 UTC: 13.7S/80.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/02/06 12 UTC: 13.8S/80.9E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/02/07 00 UTC: 14.0S/81.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/02/07 12 UTC: 14.2S/82.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/02/08 00 UTC: 14.5S/82.8E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5

AN AQUA PASS AT 19:55Z SHOWS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS
WRAPPING
AROUND THE LLCC. BASED ON THIS IMPROVMENT ON OVERALL CONFIGURATION
SEEN
ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND PREVIOUS SCAT PASS THAT SHOWS UNFLAGGED 30
KT
WINDS, SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS WITH 30 KT
MAX
WINDS. MOREOVE
R, BUOY 53948, LOCATED AT 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF TH ESTIMATED CENTER, HAS
NOW
A 24H PRESSURE FALL AT -4 HPA.

EASTERLY TO EASTNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LESSEN (CF. CIMSS DATA).
OBSERVATIONS AND NWP CHARTS SHOW THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING
OVER THE SYSTEM, SO CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
FOR
THE NEXT DAYS.

NWP MODELS FROM 12Z HAS NOT SHIFT THEIR SOLUTION. SO THE SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO HAVE AN UNUSUAL EASTSOUTHEAST SLOW TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING
FLOW OF A MID LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE THAT IS EXTENDED ALONG THE
WHOLE
BASIN (CF ECMWF CHARTS AT 700 HPA AND 500 HPA LEVEL).

GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION, FORECAST TRACK FOLLOW NWP MODELS THAT
REFLECT IT (ECMWF, GFDN) AND EXCLUDED SOME REALLY FAST SOLUTIONS
(UKMO,
ARPTROP)=

[Coredesat]

Now named Hondo, forecast to become an intense tropical cyclone by 72 hours.

WTIO30 FMEE 050645

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/10/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/05 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4S / 80.9E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 350 SO: 240 NO: 180

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/05 18 UTC: 13.3S/81.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/02/06 06 UTC: 13.4S/81.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/02/06 18 UTC: 13.6S/81.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/07 06 UTC: 13.9S/81.8E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/07 18 UTC: 14.2S/82.4E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/08 06 UTC: 14.6S/83.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
RECENT MICROWAVE SWATHS ((AQUA 1955Z AND SSMI/F13 0101Z) SHOWS AN
IMPROVMENT ON CONFIGURATION.
FIRST VISIBLE METESAT7 CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM SHOWS A CURVED BAND
PATTERN WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN 6 TENS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
WINDSHEAR IS WEAK UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE , UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
GOOD POLEWARD AND LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS SUSTAINED BY A WELL
ESTABLISHED MONSOON FLOW.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED REMAINING QUASI-STATIONNARY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS
UNEDRGOING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS (UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 700 AND 500 HPA
IN THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESURES IN ITS SOUTHWEST).
GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION, FORECAST TRACK FOLLOW NWP MODELS THAT
REFLECT IT (ECMWF, GFDN) AND EXCLUDED SOME REALLY FAST SOLUTIONS (UKMO,
ARPTROP).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REMAINING FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE ALL
RANGES OF THIS FORECAST , SO "HONDO" SHOULD KEEP ON GRADUALLY
INTENSIFYING.
HOWEVER, ITS SLOW TRACK COULD LIMIT THE ENERGETIC OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND
IN CONSEQUENCE ITS INTENSIFICATION, THIS SCENARIO IS NOT FORECASTED AT
THIS TIME.

[HURAKAN]

[Coredesat]

Possible pinhole eye (view full to see):