SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[Pedro Fernández]

Should be HONDO renamed JOWKE if it reaches enought intensity? ? I don't know if the rules are the same around all basins

[HURAKAN]

No, Meteo France has continue treating this system as Hondo.

[Squarethecircle]

Very little convection now. Hondo is finished.

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 638
WTIO30 FMEE 240637 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 48/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-HONDO)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/24 AT 0600 UTC :
23.5S / 53.4E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/24 18 UTC: 25.7S/51.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/02/25 06 UTC: 28.5S/51.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/02/25 18 UTC: 30.3S/51.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2008/02/26 06 UTC: 31.2S/53.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2008/02/26 18 UTC: 31.1S/55.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2008/02/27 06 UTC: 30.6S/56.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
NNNN

[Chacor]

Gone.

WTIO30 FMEE 241227

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 49/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/24 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5S / 52.5E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 150 SO: NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/25 00 UTC: 27.7S/51.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/02/25 12 UTC: 30.1S/51.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/02/26 00 UTC: 31.1S/53.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2008/02/26 12 UTC: 31.5S/55.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2008/02/27 00 UTC: 31.5S/58.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2008/02/27 12 UTC: 30.7S/59.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0- AND CI=2.0

25/30KT WINDS COULD PERSIST WHERE THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES IS THE STRONGEST (SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOMENT, TURNING TO THE
SOUTH THEN THE SOUTHWEST AT MEDIUM RANGE)

AFTER HAVING TRACKED OVER REUNION ISLAND , THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED, AND
IS NOW TRACKING OVER SEAS WHOSE TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER THAT 26.5 CELSIUS
DEGREES, INHIBATING ANY RE-INTESIFICATION (MOREOVER, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN LOW AND HIGH LEVELS ARE NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE - POOR UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGEN
CE, TEMPORARILLY INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR).

IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHSOUHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN CURVE
OVER A PARABOLIC TRACK AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST,
FILLING UP SLOWLY, BUT WHITHOUT EVACUATING POLEWARDS. IT SHOULD GO UP AT
MEDIUM RANGE ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A FOLLOWING SUBTROPICAL HIGH
BUILDING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. JAMMED BETWEEN THOSE TWO RIDGES, THE RESIDUAL VORTEX
SHOULD BE ISOLATED NEAR BY 30S/60E ON THE 28. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS BETWEEN A MEAN OF AMERICANS MODELS AND ECMWF OF THE 24/00.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THAT SYSTEM WHICH REMAINS CLOSELY
MONITORED.

[Chacor]

What are the chances of regeneration? According to that final warning it'll take an ENE/NE'ly track. Could it make it back into favourable conditions? It'd be crazy if it did.

[Cyclone1]

Wow, that would be absolutely insane if it regenerated. Even smaller eventually becoming a waterspout. :P