WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

[Macrocane]

JTWC winds are very low IMO it looks at least like a 90 kt cyclone (1 min sustained winds).

[HURAKAN]

30/1430 UTC 11.0N 133.2E T5.5/5.5 PARMA -- West Pacific

100 knots

[Ptarmigan]

Beware of the small eyes

I think Parma will be a Category 4 or 5 soon.

[RattleMan]

For what it's worth, look at the ADT:

Code: Select all

2009SEP30 103000  3.6  986.6/  +4.2 / 57.0  3.5 3.5 3.5  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  -78.02 -73.90  UNIFRM   N/A    10.50 -134.39   FCST   
2009SEP30 111500  3.5  988.1/  +4.1 / 55.0  3.5 3.4 3.4  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  -78.02 -72.93  UNIFRM   N/A    10.60 -134.25   FCST   
2009SEP30 113000  3.5  988.1/  +4.1 / 55.0  3.5 3.4 3.4  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  -79.42 -72.45  UNIFRM   N/A    10.63 -134.19   FCST   
2009SEP30 123000  3.5  988.1/  +4.1 / 55.0  3.4 3.4 3.4  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  -78.02 -72.97  UNIFRM   N/A    10.77 -133.98   FCST   
2009SEP30 130000  3.5  988.1/  +4.1 / 55.0  3.4 3.4 3.4  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  -78.95 -72.69  UNIFRM   N/A    10.83 -133.88   FCST   
2009SEP30 133000  3.5  988.1/  +4.1 / 55.0  3.5 3.9 6.2  0.5T/hour OFF  OFF  -23.92 -75.68  EYE/P  -99 IR   10.80 -133.60   FCST   
2009SEP30 140000  3.5  988.0/  +4.0 / 55.0  3.5 3.9 6.2  0.5T/hour OFF  OFF  -24.36 -76.02  EYE/P  -99 IR   10.86 -133.51   FCST   
2009SEP30 143000  3.7  984.8/  +4.0 / 59.0  3.7 4.0 6.1  0.5T/hour OFF  OFF  -20.26 -75.14  EYE/P  -99 IR   10.98 -133.25   SPRL   
2009SEP30 150000  4.0  980.1/  +4.1 / 65.0  4.0 5.7 6.4  2.2T/6hr  OFF  OFF  -47.79 -79.52  EYE    -99 IR   10.84 -133.16   SPRL   
2009SEP30 153000  4.2  976.0/  +4.0 / 69.8  4.2 5.7 6.3  2.2T/6hr  OFF  OFF  -21.97 -76.53  EYE/P  -99 IR   11.12 -133.05   SPRL   
2009SEP30 160000  4.6  967.6/  +4.0 / 79.6  4.6 5.7 6.6  2.2T/6hr  OFF  OFF  -22.51 -78.63  EYE/P  -99 IR   11.07 -132.85   SPRL   
2009SEP30 163000  4.9  960.4/  +4.0 / 87.4  4.9 5.7 6.5  2.2T/6hr  OFF  OFF  -25.57 -78.53  EYE/P  -99 IR   11.14 -132.74   SPRL

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 028
WTPQ21 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 10.9N 133.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 130NM
FORECAST
24HF 011500UTC 13.5N 129.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 021200UTC 16.5N 127.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 031200UTC 19.1N 126.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wxman57]

Sure looks stronger than 75 kts (again). Too bad they don't have recon out there. Here's a recent shot showing the eye. 6hr movement 296 deg at 15 kts.

[cebuboy]

Sure looks stronger than 75 kts (again). Too bad they don't have recon out there. Here's a recent shot showing the eye. 6hr movement 296 deg at 15 kts.

OMG, hope it won't pass Cebu Philippines. Thanks for update.

[wxman57]

OMG, hope it won't pass Cebu Philippines. Thanks for update.

Should pass well to your east. Northeastern Luzon may get this one.

[cebuboy]

OMG, hope it won't pass Cebu Philippines. Thanks for update.

Should pass well to your east. Northeastern Luzon may get this one.

I am worried of flash floods. North Luzon and Manila is AGAIN at risk. I hope our disaster agencies here in Philippines will surely prepare for this one. Our weather bulletin is too late and this forum gives a fresh update. Thanks.

[HURAKAN]

Boom, boom, pow

[P.K.]

Up to 85kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 11.3N 132.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 011800UTC 14.1N 128.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 021800UTC 16.7N 126.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 031800UTC 19.5N 125.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

[cycloneye]

Latest track from JMA.

[cycloneye]

JTWC will increase winds to 100kts at the 2100z warning as it is at NRL.

[wxman57]

I think that there's a very good chance that Parma moves into northeastern Luzon, perhaps even reaching the NW coast of Luzon before letting Melor go by to the east and shooting off to the north. Could cause more very heavy rain for Luzon, including Manila. Watch for the track to be nudged westward with time.

6hr movement now 292 deg at 15.1 kts.

[P.K.]

Five day track forecasts from the JMA (First) and the CWB (Second).

[HURAKAN]

100 knots may be too low based on the diameter and organization of the eye

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2009 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 11:25:07 N Lon : 132:00:41 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 947.5mb/ 99.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.4 5.7 6.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -55.4C Cloud Region Temp : -82.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

JTWC 2100z Warning=100kts

Peak intensity goes up to 130kts.Track more west.

WTPN33 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 11.3N 132.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 132.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 12.8N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.0N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 14.9N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.0N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.6N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.1N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.7N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 131.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-SOUTH-
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED EYE. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM
IS EXHIBITING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH. CURRENT INTENSITY AND POSITION
ARE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH A
DIVERGENT POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. TY 19W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SLOW DOWN IN FORWARD MOTION AFTER TAU 72
AS A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE DEVELOPS. FAVORABLE ENVIRON-
MENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSURE TYPHOON PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG A CORRIDOR OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48
WHERE THEY PROGRESSIVELY DIVERGE WITH JGSM AND TCLAPS TO THE EXTREME
RIGHT AND NOGAPS, WBAR, AND EGRR TO THE FAR LEFT. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

[HURAKAN]

That track and intensity is bone chilling.