WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

[CrazyC83]

Looking at its rapid rate of intensification, I would guess 110 kt right now.

[supercane]

000
WTPQ34 PGUM 011253
TCPPQ4

BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
800 PM CHST THU OCT 1 2009

...TYPHOON MELOR IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH
OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AT 1000 PM CHST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.9 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 415 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
425 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
450 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
480 MILES EAST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. MOVEMENT ALONG
THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CHST POSITION...14.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 151.9 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM CHST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 PM CHST.
$$

ZIOBRO

[supercane]

000
WTPQ84 PGUM 011205
HLSPQ4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON MELOR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1005 PM CHST THU OCT 1 2009

...TYPHOON MELOR IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING ...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECTED
LOCATIONS OF THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.0 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN 430 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
455 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND 490 MILES EAST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. MOVEMENT ALONG
THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AND MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS. MELOR WILL BE A LARGE AND
DANGEROUS SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES THE MARIANAS. THE RADIUS OF
DAMAGING WINDS ALREADY EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER. THE ONSET OF
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON GUAM.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. DO NOT LISTEN TO RUMORS OR
UNINFORMED OPINIONS. RATHER...SEEK AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OR HOMELAND SECURITY/OFFICE OF CIVIL DEFENSE. MARINERS
SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST FRIDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-012000-
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
1005 PM CHST THU OCT 1 2009

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TINIAN AND SAIPAN ARE IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3 AS OF 4
PM FRIDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE
BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A TIN-ROOF HOME OR OTHER STRUCTURE
MADE OF LIGHT MATERIALS...CONSIDER MOVING TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER. BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE
THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS WILL INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
ON WINDWARD COASTS. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 16 TO 20 FEET ON ALL
EXPOSURES IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK. CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED IN WESTERN VILLAGES AS OVERFLOW FROM LAKE SUSUPE
COMBINES WITH THE STORM SURGE. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS
MAY BE ISSUED.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-012000-
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
1005 PM CHST THU OCT 1 2009

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
ROTA IS IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3 AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE
BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME OR OTHER STRUCTURE
MADE OF LIGHT MATERIALS...CONSIDER MOVING TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER. BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO
DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS WILL INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST EXPOSURES. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 13 TO 17 FEET
IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

GUZ001-PMZ151-012000-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
1005 PM CHST THU OCT 1 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE
BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A TIN-ROOF HOME OR OTHER STRUCTURE
MADE OF LIGHT MATERIALS...CONSIDER MOVING TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER SHOULD SHELTER NEED TO BE OPENED. BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF
SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR
CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WILL INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF GUAM...BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT.
IF DAMAGING WINDS DO OCCUR...THEY ARE MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE AND HAZARDOUS SURF OF
10 TO 13 FEET IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

$$

[JTE50]

I'm on Saipan now. This is as close as one can get without using a boat to jump to an Island north and that would be a long and bumpy ride for sure. Will get some pressure and wind data during the storm. CPA about 3pm Saturday local time.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 1500z warning=115kts

WTPN34 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 151.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 151.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.8N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.4N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.1N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.9N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.4N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.5N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.7N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 151.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST OF GUAM,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND
021500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Ptarmigan]

Melor is forecasted to be a Category 5 typhoon with winds of 145 knots.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

381

wtpn34 pgtw 011500
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Typhoon 20w (Melor) warning nr 010
02 active tropical cyclones in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
---
warning position:
011200z --- near 14.2n 151.9e
movement past six hours - 310 degrees at 05 kts
position accurate to within 040 nm
position based on eye fixed by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 115 kt, gusts 140 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant
040 nm southeast quadrant
040 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 085 nm northeast quadrant
065 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 175 nm northeast quadrant
145 nm southeast quadrant
155 nm southwest quadrant
155 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 14.2n 151.9e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
020000z --- 14.8n 150.4e
Max sustained winds - 125 kt, gusts 150 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant
040 nm southeast quadrant
040 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 080 nm northeast quadrant
065 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 155 nm northeast quadrant
135 nm southeast quadrant
140 nm southwest quadrant
140 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 295 deg/ 08 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
021200z --- 15.4n 148.9e
Max sustained winds - 130 kt, gusts 160 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant
040 nm southeast quadrant
040 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 080 nm northeast quadrant
065 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 145 nm northeast quadrant
130 nm southeast quadrant
135 nm southwest quadrant
135 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 36 hr posit: 295 deg/ 09 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
030000z --- 16.1n 147.2e
Max sustained winds - 130 kt, gusts 160 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant
040 nm southeast quadrant
040 nm southwest quadrant
045 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 075 nm northeast quadrant
070 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant
130 nm southeast quadrant
135 nm southwest quadrant
135 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 48 hr posit: 290 deg/ 13 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
031200z --- 16.9n 144.7e
Max sustained winds - 135 kt, gusts 165 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant
045 nm southeast quadrant
045 nm southwest quadrant
045 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 075 nm northeast quadrant
070 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant
125 nm southeast quadrant
130 nm southwest quadrant
135 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 72 hr posit: 290 deg/ 13 kts
---
72 hrs, valid at:
041200z --- 18.4n 139.6e
Max sustained winds - 140 kt, gusts 170 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant
045 nm southeast quadrant
045 nm southwest quadrant
045 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 075 nm northeast quadrant
070 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
075 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 135 nm northeast quadrant
125 nm southeast quadrant
130 nm southwest quadrant
135 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 96 hr posit: 295 deg/ 12 kts
---
long range outlook:
note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 350 nm on day 5... and for intensity
near 20 kt each day.
---
96 hrs, valid at:
051200z --- 20.5n 134.8e
Max sustained winds - 145 kt, gusts 175 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 120 hr posit: 330 deg/ 12 kts
---
120 hrs, valid at:
061200z --- 24.7n 132.2e
Max sustained winds - 145 kt, gusts 175 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
---
remarks:
011500z position near 14.4n 151.5e.
Typhoon (TY) 20w (Melor) located approximately 420 nm east of Guam,
has tracked northwestward at 05 knots over the past six hours. The
system has continued to rapidly intensify over the past six hours.
The system continues tracking on the southern periphery of the sub-
tropical ridge to the north. Maximum significant wave height at
011200z is 26 feet. Next warnings at 012100z, 020300z, 020900z and
021500z. Refer to typhoon 19w (parma) warnings (wtpn33 pgtw) for six-
hourly updates.//

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Warning and Typhoon Watch for Rota,Tinian and Saipan

000
WTPQ34 PGUM 011553
TCPPQ4

BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
2 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009

...TYPHOON MELOR CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT NEARS THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.5 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 390 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
395 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
420 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
455 MILES EAST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CHST POSITION...14.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 151.5 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 AM.
$$

STANKO

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful storm

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 932
WTPQ52 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 14.1N 152.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 15.3N 149.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 031200UTC 17.1N 146.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 041200UTC 19.1N 140.7E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 051200UTC 22.9N 136.5E 280NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
120HF 061200UTC 27.9N 136.0E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WAKE UP!!
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2009 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 14:08:15 N Lon : 151:27:40 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 975.1mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.2 5.7 7.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -27.5C Cloud Region Temp : -80.5C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't be surprised at all if this became super-intense as well.

[HURAKAN]

I wouldn't be surprised at all if this became super-intense as well.

I would be surprised if this one doesn't!

[jones7954]

according to the NWS alerts this storm is scheduled to track NW and not get off course.. what are the chances of this not happening and it actually causing serious damage to guam?

[cycloneye]

TYPHOON MELOR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
309 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009

...TYPHOON MELOR CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT NEARS THE MARIANAS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN SELECT LOCATIONS IN THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.5 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 390 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN...395 MILES EAST OF TINIAN...
420 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND 455 MILES EAST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AND MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS. MELOR WILL BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS
SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES THE MARIANAS. THE RADIUS OF DAMAGING
WINDS ALREADY EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER. THE ONSET OF DAMAGING
WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON GUAM.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOR
INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. REGARDING
ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT AND WELL SECURED. FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH
YOUR PREPARATIONS AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING ANY
COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT
OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING YOUR
CRAFT. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS
OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND
PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED
RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-020200-
/X.NEW.PGUM.TR.W.0003.091001T1709Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
309 AM CHST FRI OCT 2 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

TINIAN AND SAIPAN REMAIN IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 3.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS. SECURE
LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A
TIN-ROOF HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT
OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION THE
SECURING OF THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON MELOR MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS WILL INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE INUNDATION OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE
ON WINDWARD COASTS. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 16 TO 20 FEET ON ALL
EXPOSURES IS POSSIBLE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK. CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED IN WESTERN VILLAGES AS OVERFLOW FROM LAKE SUSUPE
COMBINES WITH THE STORM SURGE. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS
MAY BE ISSUED.

[Derek Ortt]

this looks like a T 7.0 or even a 7.5. Remember, the eye will not be all that clear given its small size

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 130 kt for the intensity given its rapid deepening, Raw T# and trends. Even that may be a bit conservative. My pressure guess is 915mb.

[HURAKAN]

Impressive storm

[nimrodel]

On wunderground they are currently projecting on their computer model track that it'll make landfall in Japan. I know its still early days yet but I was wondering if it is a very real possibly of it hitting and at a Cat 4/5 intensity. I have a friend who is returning to Tokyo (Chiba Prefecture) tomorrow, so I'm panicking a bit

[HURAKAN]

On wunderground they are currently projecting on their computer model track that it'll make landfall in Japan. I know its still early days yet but I was wondering if it is a very real possibly of it hitting and at a Cat 4/5 intensity. I have a friend who is returning to Tokyo (Chiba Prefecture) tomorrow, so I'm panicking a bit

Your friend needs to pay close attention to Melor