ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[wxman57]

HAs anyone noticed a counterclockwise spin on the northeast side of the convective area? Around roughly 29N, 73.5W? It looks like a new LLC might be developing there. Iknow that that's a lot further southeast from where the other center was/is, but I see a good deal of twist there. Sorry I can't post any images until I get home...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

I see what you're looking at. It's easier to see now that the nasty convection is dissipating and no longer covering it up. Looks like a mid-level rotation. That would be fitting, a mid-level center located east of the much weaker LLC in a westerly shear environment.

[ozonepete]

HAs anyone noticed a counterclockwise spin on the northeast side of the convective area? Around roughly 29N, 73.5W? It looks like a new LLC might be developing there. Iknow that that's a lot further southeast from where the other center was/is, but I see a good deal of twist there. Sorry I can't post any images until I get home...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

I see what you're looking at. It's easier to see now that the nasty convection is dissipating and no longer covering it up. Looks like a mid-level rotation. That would be fitting, a mid-level center located east of the much weaker LLC in a westerly shear environment.

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense to me, what with the westerly shear there and those clouds sure looking like middle level as opposed to high level. Thanks for pointing that out.

[deltadog03]

Ya, this does look like a mess. I do see the mlc as well. rotating fairly nicely over the older convection. I wonder if that fires again and can get the llc back there or a new one. OR** the more plausable solution IMO right now would be poofication.

[ozonepete]

Hey wxman57, wouldn't a middle level circulation have a good chance of forming a new LLC under, IF the shear stays down?

[ozonepete]

Or actually, now that I think about it, there could very well already be a newly developed LLC under the MLC anyway, if the mid level shear is low there, right?

[Blown Away]

Pretty much this system is going to move into GA/SC area, I don't see this advertised ridge pushing this system WSW.

[Emmett_Brown]

Sometimes this burst/fade would be a prelude to another burst, and takeoff. This is probably not the case this time, since this is Fred that we are talking about. However, it is interesting that the mid level circ is quite visible to the E of the center, and instead of moving to the East away from the low level center with the shear, it is moving along to the W/NW. In other words, even though the LLC and MLC are not stacked, they are at least moving in the same general direction. Divergence is still good aloft, and some convergence still exists at the surface per cimms. Maybe we will see another burst. Regarding the position of the LLC... this is such a weak LLC, just a general turning/vorticity, that I think it would be quite easy for another center to spin up under the convection if we get another burst... this is no dominant center controlling things, so a real LLC could pop anywhere. Hasn't done it yet though, and time is running out...

[Macrocane]

I hope this thing make landfall (without damages of course) it's the only way it will be destroyed.

[ozonepete]

I hope this thing make landfall (without damages of course) it's the only way it will be destroyed.

Yeah, you're right. Wxman57's Raid can hasn't finished it off yet.

[stormcrow]

What are the chances of a naked swirl in the Gulf for the next week or so?

[ozonepete]

What are the chances of a naked swirl in the Gulf for the next week or so?

The 2009 Hurricane Season: Naked swirl watch.

[carolina_73]

Convection starting to come back.

[ozonepete]

I really think there is a center forming on the NW side of the convergence where that mid-level circulation became visible this afternoon. If that's true, I would say tonight this will really get going. Right now there are a lot of thunderstorm clusters popping all over that area. It's got very low shear, good upper level divergence and low level convergence, and we know the SSTs are high and getting higher as it approaches the Gulf Stream. Finally, as Aric pointed out the other day, GFS (and other models) are forecasting an upper level anticyclone to form right over its general area between now and tomorrow.

BTW, it appears some banding may be occuring. Look at carolina_73's image above.

[carolina_73]

Looks like to me the overall structure is improving now and some possible banding. The appearance tells me there is less shear now. What you guys think

[jaxfladude]

Some of the local TV Mets are saying we might get some heavy rains from the leftovers of Fred this week.

[somethingfunny]

my first, only and last post about this system. NEXT!

Quoted for truth.

[Blown Away]

Looks like to me the overall structure is improving now and some possible banding. The appearance tells me there is less shear now. What you guys think

If you look at that snapshot only, I think it is the best ex Fred has looked in several days. It appears w/ the banding that convection ball is over the circulation center.

[LarryWx]

Is it my imagination or does Fred now have a face that is laughing at us?

[ozonepete]

If you look at that snapshot only, I think it is the best ex Fred has looked in several days. It appears w/ the banding that convection ball is over the circulation center.

I think it's a more to the NW of the biggest convection blowup, Blown_away, but the most interesting thing is the convective blowups are not getting sheared. That's why, as you said, this is the best ex Fred has looked in quite a while.

[ozonepete]

Is it my imagination or does Fred now have a face that is laughing at us?

Heh heh. No matter what else, it's starting to look like a cohesive tropical system on the way up, not down.