SIO: GAEL - Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 020700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 68.1E TO 16.2S 63.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 020630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.1S 67.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S
69.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 67.6E, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS
IS CONFIRMED BY A 020152Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE WHICH SHOWS AN IMPROVED
LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
DISTURBANCE. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPROVING DUE TO A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER, AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST AND
FURTHER ENHANCE OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. OVERALL, THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED, HOWEVER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
CONTINUES TO LIMIT THE RATE OF DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THESE GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030700Z.

[Chacor]

Now Tropical Disturbance 08R.

WTIO30 FMEE 021225

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8

2.A POSITION 2009/02/02 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 67.2E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/03 00 UTC: 16.8S/65.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/02/03 12 UTC: 17.7S/64.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/02/04 00 UTC: 18.3S/62.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2009/02/04 12 UTC: 18.5S/60.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/02/05 00 UTC: 18.7S/58.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/02/05 12 UTC: 18.7S/56.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0

SYSTEM IS SHEARED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED EAST
OF THE MAIN CONVECTION (CF TRMM AT 09:59Z).
ENVIRONNENTAL CONDITIONS WERE STATIONNARY DURING THE LAST HOURS WITH A
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL ONLY FED BY THE
MONSOON FLOW.

DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS
WEST-SOUTH-WEST IN RELATION WITH A WEAKENESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IT
SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD BEYOND WITH THE INCREASING OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTH.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS BETTER POLEWARD AFTER TOMORROW EVENING THANKS TO
THE INCREASING GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE BUT ONLY ONE OUTFLOW WILL STETTLE IN THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

INTENSIFICATION RATE IS SLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.

INTEREST IN THE MASCAREGNAS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

02/0830 UTC 15.7S 67.4E T2.5/2.5 93S -- Southwest Indian

[HURAKAN]

Looks pretty good.

[HURAKAN]

TPXS10 PGTW 021200

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93S (NE OF LA REUNION)

B. 02/1130Z

C. 16.0S

D. 67.0E

E. SIX/MET7

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .40 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 2.0. DBO PT
AND MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0946Z 15.4S 66.9E MMHS


UEHARA

[HURAKAN]

405
WTIO30 FMEE 021808

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8

2.A POSITION 2009/02/02 AT 1800 UTC :
16.3S / 66.4E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: SO: NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/03 06 UTC: 17.1S/64.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/02/03 18 UTC: 17.6S/62.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/02/04 06 UTC: 18.1S/60.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2009/02/04 18 UTC: 18.1S/58.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/02/05 06 UTC: 18.2S/56.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/02/05 18 UTC: 18.4S/54.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0

SYSTEM IS SHEARED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED EAST
OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.
ENVIRONNENTAL CONDITIONS WERE STATIONNARY DURING THE LAST HOURS WITH A
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL ONLY FED MAINLY BY
THE MONSOON FLOW.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS WEST-SOUTH-WEST IN
RELATION WITH A WEAKENESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IT SHOULD MOVE
WESTWARD BEYOND WITH THE INCREASING OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS BETTER POLEWARD AFTER TOMORROW EVENING THANKS TO
THE INCREASING GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE BUT ONLY ONE OUTFLOW WILL STETTLE IN THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

INTENSIFICATION RATE IS SLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.

INTEREST IN THE MASCAREGNAS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 35kts-996mb

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020651Z FEB 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS31 PGTW 022100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 66.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 66.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.5S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.0S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.4S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.8S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 66.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SUFFICIENTLY-CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSIVE, YET MODERATELY
SHEARED, AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. MORE RECENTLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS SLACKENED ALLOWING CONVECTION TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE LLCC. AS A RESULT, SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW NOW REFLECT A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. A
021323Z QUICKSCAT IMAGE CONFIRMS A 35 KNOT SYSTEM AS WELL. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE, IN ADDITION
TO A 021726Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK
GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS, AS WELL,
WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT OF UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WITHIN
FAVORABLE SEAS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL AIDS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 020651Z FEB 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 020700 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.

[Chacor]

TD08R officially.

WTIO30 FMEE 030014

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8

2.A POSITION 2009/02/03 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5S / 65.9E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: SO: NO: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/03 12 UTC: 17.1S/64.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/02/04 00 UTC: 17.5S/62.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/02/04 12 UTC: 17.7S/59.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2009/02/05 00 UTC: 17.8S/57.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/02/05 12 UTC: 17.9S/55.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/02/06 00 UTC: 18.0S/54.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-

SYSTEM IS SHEARED WITH AN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED EAST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTION.

ENVIRONNENTAL CONDITIONS WERE STATIONNARY DURING THE LAST HOURS WITH A
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL ONLY FED MAINLY BY
THE MONSOON FLOW.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS WEST-SOUTH-WEST IN RELATION WITH A WEAKENESS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UP TO TAU 24H IT SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD BEYOND
WITH THE INCREASING OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS BETTER POLEWARD AFTER TOMORROW EVENING THANKS TO
THE INCREASING GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE BUT ONLY ONE OUTFLOW WILL STETTLE IN THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

INTENSIFICATION RATE IS SLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.

INTEREST IN THE MASCAREGNAS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

[CrazyC83]

Looking pretty good for a tropical depression...

[Fadil]

Its now updated to Gael and 995HPA

If the current trajectory is maintained,Mauritius will be in trouble.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 030616

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/8/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/03 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2S / 64.9E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 200

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 850 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/03 18 UTC: 18.0S/63.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2009/02/04 06 UTC: 18.5S/61.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/02/04 18 UTC: 18.4S/58.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/02/05 06 UTC: 18.2S/56.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/02/05 18 UTC: 18.3S/54.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/02/06 06 UTC: 18.6S/53.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- AND CI=2.5+
SYSTEM REMAINS SHEARED AND SHOWS A BROAD VORTEX, TOTALLY EXPOSED ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS RATHER GOOD ON THE BOTH EDGES BUT INTENSIFICATION
REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAK BEYOND TAU 36 BUT WITH ONLY ONE
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL, A SECOND ONE COULD APPEAR
POLEWARD BEYOND TAU 72.
INTEREST IN THE MASCAREGNAS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

[Fadil]

look like its not going to be a major cyclone

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 64.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 64.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.5S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.8S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.9S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.8S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. TS 13S LIES
SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO ITS WESTERN
PERIPHERY. LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF TS
13S IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HOLD
INTENSIFICATION TO A SLOW RATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE AS TS 13S NEARS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY MORE
RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.//

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 031211

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/8/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/03 AT 1200 UTC :
17.6S / 63.3E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 200

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 850 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/04 00 UTC: 18.2S/61.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2009/02/04 12 UTC: 18.6S/59.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/02/05 00 UTC: 18.7S/57.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/02/05 12 UTC: 18.8S/55.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/02/06 00 UTC: 19.2S/53.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/02/06 12 UTC: 19.9S/51.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 AND CI=2.5+
SYSTEM SHOWS A BROAD VORTEX, TOTALLY EXPOSED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BUT LAST METEOSAT7 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEW CLUSTERS CLOSER
TO THE CENTER.
SYSTEM STILL UNDERGOES AN EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR BUT IS NOW CLOSER
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS (CF CIRRUS EASTWARDS OUTFLOW IN THE
PERIPHERAL BAND SOUTH OF 19S) , WINDSHEAR IS IN CONSEQUENCE EXPECTED
WEAKENING AS FORECASTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24H UNDER THIS RIDGE.
MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS ARE NOT FORECASTED TO BE CONCERN BY A
STRONG INTENSITY SYSTEM DUE TO ITS FAST MOTION AND ACTUAL WEAK INTENSITY.
THIS ISLAND SHOULD HOWEVER CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODEL AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT SOME OF THEM
HOWEVER FORECAST CLOSER TRACKS.

[HURAKAN]

Gael is not looking too good.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

More convection now.