CPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANA (06E)

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Re: EPAC : INVEST 97E

#21 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 30, 2009 8:50 am

It will be TD Six-E at 8 AM PDT first advisory.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep972009_ep062009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200907301328
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP


WHXX01 KMIA 301331
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1331 UTC THU JUL 30 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE SIX (EP062009) 20090730 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090730 1200 090731 0000 090731 1200 090801 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 138.9W 12.2N 141.8W 12.8N 144.7W 13.5N 147.8W
BAMD 11.5N 138.9W 12.0N 142.4W 12.8N 145.6W 13.7N 148.5W
BAMM 11.5N 138.9W 12.0N 141.9W 12.7N 144.9W 13.4N 147.9W
LBAR 11.5N 138.9W 11.9N 142.0W 12.3N 145.3W 12.5N 148.6W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090801 1200 090802 1200 090803 1200 090804 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 150.9W 15.8N 156.8W 17.9N 162.5W 20.2N 167.7W
BAMD 14.7N 151.0W 17.7N 154.3W 20.8N 156.3W 22.7N 157.1W
BAMM 14.3N 150.8W 16.3N 155.2W 18.4N 159.1W 20.4N 162.6W
LBAR 12.4N 151.9W 12.5N 157.3W 13.5N 161.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 41KTS 31KTS 21KTS
DSHP 46KTS 41KTS 31KTS 21KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 138.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 135.6W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 132.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re:

#22 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:06 am

CrazyC83 wrote:If it develops, the race is on to determine where it becomes a storm - would it be Enrique or Lana?

What happens if it is determined that it operationally became a storm after 140W, but the best track backs it up to before 140W, does it keep the CPac name?



They haven't used Akoni yet, IIRC...
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#23 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:15 am

Yep hardly surprising this zis being upgraded, clearly on its way to being a system but I'm pretty much certain its going to be a CPAC named storm. Not sure its going to strengthen much before it gets to the lesser favorable conditions but it looks very good right now!
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Re: Re:

#24 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:16 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:If it develops, the race is on to determine where it becomes a storm - would it be Enrique or Lana?

What happens if it is determined that it operationally became a storm after 140W, but the best track backs it up to before 140W, does it keep the CPac name?



They haven't used Akoni yet, IIRC...


After Kika comes Lana.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:17 am

Image

I think this could easily be upgraded to Enrique at the moment.
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Re: Re:

#26 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:21 am

HURAKAN wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:If it develops, the race is on to determine where it becomes a storm - would it be Enrique or Lana?

What happens if it is determined that it operationally became a storm after 140W, but the best track backs it up to before 140W, does it keep the CPac name?



They haven't used Akoni yet, IIRC...


After Kika comes Lana.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml



Did I miss Kika somehow? I thought we hadn't even had Akoni yet...
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 97E

#27 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:22 am

Its a very close call in terms of the 140W line to name it Lana or Enrique. :)
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Re: Re:

#28 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:23 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Did I miss Kika somehow? I thought we hadn't even had Akoni yet...


Akoni was in 1982. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/1982.php
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#29 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:30 am

I think its very likely that by the time the NHC upgrade this (TBH I agree, it maybe a TS already) it'll be either very close or just over the 140W line. Going to be close either way!
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#30 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:32 am

It may just be a case of an operationally named storm not named correctly in post-analysis, being so close! If they name it at 15Z, it will likely be Enrique. At 18Z, too close to call. At 21Z or later, likely Lana.

Where it becomes a depression does not matter in terms of what the name would be, it would still be Lana if it crosses 140W as a numbered tropical depression (Six-E) then strengthened to a tropical storm across the line. Although I think it would go down as 06E.Lana, not 01C.Lana in that case.
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 97E

#31 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:53 am

TD Six-E


WTPZ21 KNHC 301452
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062009
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 139.7W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 139.7W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 138.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.1N 141.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.3N 144.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.6N 147.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.1N 150.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.0N 156.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 161.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 15.5N 166.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 139.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER TCMCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO...BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

WTPZ41 KNHC 301454
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062009
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2009

CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AROUND THE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
PACIFIC OCEAN WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0...AND
THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E. THE
CENTER POSITION IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT A 1116 UTC
AMSU PASS INDICATES THAT IT IS PROBABLY NOT ANY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ABOUT 12N.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND THE RESULTANT MOTION IS A QUICK
275/16. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN ANTICYCLONE WILL
BREAK OFF THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE WESTWARD...KEEPING
THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SHALLOW ENOUGH AT
THAT TIME TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING
FOR ONLY THE FIRST 36-48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH TIME SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS SHOWN
BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES
MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN STEADY WEAKENING
THEREAFTER. THIS SCENARIO AGREES WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS.

THIS DEPRESSION WILL BE CROSSING 140W SOON...AND ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 12.0N 139.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 12.1N 141.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 12.3N 144.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 12.6N 147.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 13.1N 150.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 14.0N 156.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 161.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 166.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: Re:

#32 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Jul 30, 2009 10:00 am

HURAKAN wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Did I miss Kika somehow? I thought we hadn't even had Akoni yet...


Akoni was in 1982. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/1982.php



Now you have me thoroughly confused.
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Re: Re:

#33 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 30, 2009 10:06 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Now you have me thoroughly confused.


Apparently the list of names they use started in 1982!
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E

#34 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 30, 2009 10:09 am

Image
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Re: Re:

#35 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 30, 2009 10:25 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Did I miss Kika somehow? I thought we hadn't even had Akoni yet...


Akoni was in 1982. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/1982.php



Now you have me thoroughly confused.


The list is like the WPAC list. They started it in 1982 (IIRC) and each season we pick up where the last season left off. The last storm named in the CPAC was Kika. Next up is Lana.

Lana, in Hawaiian, means afloat or calm. Such as still waters. Ironic? I thought so.
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E

#36 Postby Macrocane » Thu Jul 30, 2009 12:10 pm

On the last IR looks pretty goog, I think it's already Lana... or Enrique
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E

#37 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Jul 30, 2009 12:24 pm

Canadian- near miss in less than 3 days, then a different near miss in 5 days. I say near miss, but probably far enough away (if CMC correct) for just a little trade wind enhancement.

GFS also misses, but likes an active EPac.
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#38 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Jul 30, 2009 12:48 pm

the stornger the storm, the farther north it goes. The global models barely have a TC in their fields. I am a bit suspicious of the solutions well south of Hawaii
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#39 Postby cyclonic chronic » Thu Jul 30, 2009 1:14 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-wv.html


looking very good on water vapor. moist env. uper level winds are great for enhancing outflow both north and south. if 06E is as organized as it looks, this could take off quick. looks kinda small. gotta ask where would it go if it were stronger than 50-60kt? interesting to see it in 24 hrs.
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Re:

#40 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Jul 30, 2009 1:17 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the stornger the storm, the farther north it goes. The global models barely have a TC in their fields. I am a bit suspicious of the solutions well south of Hawaii


Yes, but fairly wide spread between deep and shallow BAM models beginning in 2 days would indicate the GFS sees unfavorable shear, which would tend to keep the system weak, which would tend to make the shallower solution more correct.


The 0Z GFDL brought this to hurricane force, and while closer to Hawai'i, kept tropical storm force winds just offshore the Big Island.


Edit

12Z GFDL briefly brings this to hurricane force before weakening it, keeps it safely South of Hawai'i.

Image
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