EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[RL3AO]

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200908252009
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Will probably be 94E later tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

When this enters the EPAC, does it get renumbered as 94E? If it does, would this thread be renamed or would it drop the pages as a new thread is created?

Interesting question as this happens in a minor way.I pass the question to the admins,but IMO,,I say a new thread for EPAC invest 94E,but again.the admins will sort this.

[artist]

When this enters the EPAC, does it get renumbered as 94E? If it does, would this thread be renamed or would it drop the pages as a new thread is created?

Interesting question as this happens in a minor way.I pass the question to the admins,but IMO,,I say a new thread for EPAC invest 94E,but again.the admins will sort this.

Can we just keep this one and just call it Ex 93L/ Now 94E ? That way it can be recognized as the same system.

[cycloneye]

Can we just keep this one and just call it Ex 93L/ Now 94E ? That way it can be recognized as the same system.

After having consultations among the staff the thread will stay.

Title will say=EPAC : Invest 94E (Former Invest 93L)

[artist]

Can we just keep this one and just call it Ex 93L/ Now 94E ? That way it can be recognized as the same system.

After having consultations among the staff the thread will stay.

Title will say=EPAC : Invest 94E (Former Invest 93L)

thanks cycloneye!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGNACIO...LOCATED ABOUT 710 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN TONIGHT. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR TO DUE ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

[lrak]

All the moisture seems to be on the eastern side of the forecast, did it split?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

it looks kinda spooky to me.

[HURAKAN]

This invest should be back up very soon

[KWT]

Wow explosive convection there, yep no doubt this will be the EPAC's invest.

[cycloneye]

Soon the title with read=EPAC : Invest 94E (Former 93L)

[Chacor]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE COAST OF GUATEMALA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

For now, how about "EPAC: Ex-INVEST 93L"?

[cycloneye]

This was former invest 93L in Atlantic.

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200908271704
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2009, DB, O, 2009082718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942009
EP, 94, 2009082718, , BEST, 0, 127N, 956W, 25, 0, DB

[cycloneye]

First model plots from Bam models


WHXX01 KMIA 271852
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1852 UTC THU AUG 27 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942009) 20090827 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090827 1800 090828 0600 090828 1800 090829 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 95.8W 13.2N 97.8W 13.6N 99.6W 14.0N 101.6W
BAMD 12.8N 95.8W 13.1N 98.4W 13.4N 100.8W 14.0N 102.8W
BAMM 12.8N 95.8W 13.0N 98.1W 13.3N 100.2W 13.7N 102.2W
LBAR 12.8N 95.8W 13.2N 98.3W 13.9N 100.9W 14.7N 103.5W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 43KTS 55KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 43KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090829 1800 090830 1800 090831 1800 090901 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 103.6W 15.4N 107.4W 16.5N 110.8W 18.7N 114.3W
BAMD 14.7N 104.5W 16.2N 106.5W 18.3N 108.2W 21.2N 110.9W
BAMM 14.2N 104.1W 15.3N 107.2W 17.0N 110.0W 19.4N 113.7W
LBAR 15.3N 105.6W 17.0N 108.9W 18.6N 111.4W 19.8N 114.1W
SHIP 68KTS 83KTS 90KTS 90KTS
DSHP 68KTS 83KTS 90KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 95.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 92.8W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 90.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

[somethingfunny]

Well that reorganized quickly. The EPAC has been very quiet east of 115E this season. The model suite seems to have backed off on that recurve; good news for Mexico and terrible for Texas.

[clfenwi]

27/2345 UTC 13.1N 96.8W T1.0/1.0 94E -- East Pacific

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[clfenwi]

06Z TWO

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Somewhat surprised this wasn't cranked up to "code red". Going into the eclipse period, I thought I saw a good circulation starting to form. However, TC Probability Product hasn't truly spiked out and the 00Z GFS is forecasting development later rather than sooner. We'll see...

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PHNC 280630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2N 96.3W TO 14.9N 102.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 96.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 95.5W, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 96.6W, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT REGION LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO LOCATED IN A REGION OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 280128Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES BROKEN AND WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING AROUND THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290630Z.//
NNNN