ATL : TROPICAL STORM GRACE

[HURAKAN]

Thanks for showing that Grace is not attached to a cold front.

[HURAKAN]

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 16.4 WEST OR ABOUT 575
MILES...925 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CORK IRELAND...AND ABOUT 590 MILES...
950 KM....NORTHWEST OF LISBON PORTUGAL.

Not very common names in tropical meteorology!!!

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Thanks for showing that Grace is not attached to a cold front.

The East Coast low was also an occlusion, with the low center detached from the front. But it was over MUCH warmer water with much less cold air around the center.

[Dean4Storms]

Strange development for sure and here we have a TC developing in the NE Atlantic while the Tropical Atlantic remains pretty much DEAD!

[Derek Ortt]

It was making landfall at that point, not inland.

http://bit.ly/cKPOS

Better, almost as "good" looking as Grace. But it reached its peak (and was more warm-core) the evening before that sat pic was taken. By first light, it was already transitioning. Remember when the center passed over the buoy east of Delaware? The temperature at the buoy rose 7 degrees. That's a sign of a warm core low.

See an analysis below. Not "on" the front, but behind it in the cold air. If the system off the Mid Atlantic Coast didn't qualify for naming because of proximity to a front, then Grace doesn't either. Consistency is all I ask.

the NJ system did not have any organized deep convection near the center.

Hurricane 8 of 1991 was not named because "naming would cause public confusion since the storm did damage before it became a hurricane"

[HURAKAN]

AL, 09, 2009100412, , BEST, 0, 383N, 268W, 45, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 40, 40, 20,
AL, 09, 2009100418, , BEST, 0, 388N, 239W, 50, 992, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 45, 45, 20,
AL, 09, 2009100418, , BEST, 0, 388N, 239W, 50, 992, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 15, 0,
AL, 09, 2009100500, , BEST, 0, 402N, 213W, 55, 990, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 40, 20, 1000, 175, 15, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GRACE, D,
AL, 09, 2009100500, , BEST, 0, 402N, 213W, 55, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 15, 0, 1000, 175, 15, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GRACE, D,
AL, 09, 2009100506, , BEST, 0, 420N, 190W, 55, 990, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 40, 20, 1000, 175, 15, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GRACE, D, 12, NEQ, 45, 45, 40, 20
AL, 09, 2009100506, , BEST, 0, 420N, 190W, 55, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 15, 0, 1000, 175, 15, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GRACE, D, 12, NEQ, 45, 45, 40, 20
AL, 09, 2009100512, , BEST, 0, 443N, 172W, 55, 990, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 60, 60, 0, 996, 100, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GRACE, M,
AL, 09, 2009100512, , BEST, 0, 443N, 172W, 55, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 30, 0, 0, 996, 100, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0,

A tropical storm since yesterday at 12 UTC. I concur

[leanne_uk]

[ozonepete]

the NJ system did not have any organized deep convection near the center.
Hurricane 8 of 1991 was not named because "naming would cause public confusion since the storm did damage before it became a hurricane"

Exactly. Thank you for pointing that out, Derek. And the point is that Grace DOES have organized convection around the center. If it were an "occluded low" it would only have a seclusion of pinched-off warm air at the center with low to middle clouds around it, not tall convection surrounding it.

[CrazyC83]

AL, 09, 2009100412, , BEST, 0, 383N, 268W, 45, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 40, 40, 20,
AL, 09, 2009100418, , BEST, 0, 388N, 239W, 50, 992, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 45, 45, 20,
AL, 09, 2009100418, , BEST, 0, 388N, 239W, 50, 992, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 15, 0,
AL, 09, 2009100500, , BEST, 0, 402N, 213W, 55, 990, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 40, 20, 1000, 175, 15, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GRACE, D,
AL, 09, 2009100500, , BEST, 0, 402N, 213W, 55, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 15, 0, 1000, 175, 15, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GRACE, D,
AL, 09, 2009100506, , BEST, 0, 420N, 190W, 55, 990, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 40, 20, 1000, 175, 15, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GRACE, D, 12, NEQ, 45, 45, 40, 20
AL, 09, 2009100506, , BEST, 0, 420N, 190W, 55, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 15, 0, 1000, 175, 15, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GRACE, D, 12, NEQ, 45, 45, 40, 20
AL, 09, 2009100512, , BEST, 0, 443N, 172W, 55, 990, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 60, 60, 0, 996, 100, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GRACE, M,
AL, 09, 2009100512, , BEST, 0, 443N, 172W, 55, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 30, 0, 0, 996, 100, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0,

A tropical storm since yesterday at 12 UTC. I concur

Personally, I think it has been a tropical storm since 0000Z on October 1.

[somethingfunny]

Grace is about to move off the tracking map at the top of the forum.

As an aside, I found an interesting study. As it turns out, storms in this region may not be so rare at all:

http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520- ... -2-191.pdf

"The passage of Hurricane Vince as a tropical depression over Spain and Portugal was once
thought to be a unique historical event, but documents show that a rare tropical storm
similarly struck southwest Spain in October 1842."

[HURAKAN]

Personally, I think it has been a tropical storm since 0000Z on October 1.

Likely the most interesting post-season report will come from Grace

[somethingfunny]

Personally, I think it has been a tropical storm since 0000Z on October 1.

Likely the most interesting post-season report will come from Grace

Also the latest!

[CrazyC83]

Could it have been a hurricane for a while?

The lowest pressure looks to have been about 984mb back on October 2. It appears that it meandered around the Azores on October 3. I'd need to look at all the satellite images to make a best track estimate when the NHC was not monitoring this.

[ncweatherwizard]

I couldn't find anything last night to indicate that this was a warm-core cyclone, but indeed the AMSU for this morning makes it quite clear that Grace is a TC.

I do with agree with wxman on the matter of consistency however. Having these types of storms named drives me crazy after having so many similar cyclones unnamed. Personally, I could care less what folks in Miami decide to name or not name. But it does affect the public perception of how many storms there were in a season and contributes to the debate concerning whether we are really seeing any more TCs now than we did during the last active period in the Atlantic. In order to have a solid rubric to compare activity now to activity before we had to means to detect small far-away TCs, we must have consistency. The same goes for systems like the pre-season unnamed tropical storm that made landfall along the Gulf Coast this May that would probably be named if it occurred again today.

But that's why we have HURDAT and reanalysis and end of season adjustments, so hopefully, it doesn't matter what is named operationally.

[HURAKAN]

All I know is that if it meets the requirements for a tropical cyclone and has winds at or above 34 knots, it has to be named. It doesn't matter if it looks like Katrina, Marco, Erika or Vince. Technology allows us to detect tropical cyclones where once it was impossible. You simply can't look at the data before satellites and RECON and to the data today and make a straight comparison. There is no question that Graces and Vinces have always existed.

[ozonepete]

All I know is that if it meets the requirements for a tropical cyclone and has winds at or above 34 knots, it has to be named. It doesn't matter if it looks like Katrina, Marco, Erika or Vince. Technology allows us to detect tropical cyclones where once it was impossible. You simply can't look at the data before satellites and RECON and to the data today and make a straight comparison. There is no question that Graces and Vinces have always existed.

Well said.

[ozonepete]

I couldn't find anything last night to indicate that this was a warm-core cyclone, but indeed the AMSU for this morning makes it quite clear that Grace is a TC.

Smart to look at the AMSU - I forgot about it. I just looked and it's quite clear this is warm core. Unfortunately I can't post images here, so I'll post it when I get home. If anyone else wants to see, just go on to CIMSS and select AMSU. The best one is the AMSU-A channel 6 from 1406 (1st column, 3rd image down). That's the 350mb presentation. You can see the warmer core temperatures quite plainly.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like as CrazyC83 pointed out, Grace formed as early as October 1, which I think it is possible. I wonder how many of these storms like Fred, Grace, and Vince go undetected before satellites. I think years like 1887, 1914, and 1933 had storms that went undetected in the eastern part of the Atlantic. 1914 had only one recorded storm that year.

[DanieleItalyRm]

..Tropical Storm or at least a Subtropical Storm. The satellite presentation appears as if it is a Hurricane.
Kindly, we would like a small explanation of why 90L is just that, an invest and nothing more.
Warm Regards,
Jonathan Belles.
Weather Enthusiast and Future Meteorologist
Storm2k.org member

Respuesta:
Dear Jonathan Belles,
I tried to call the NHC without success. That's why I jumped on my bike to see what was going on.
When I arrived I met the staff in the pool room. They just ordered some pizza and some Johny Walker and were having a great time.
I told them about your e-mail and after drinking 3 cans of coffee they decided to give it a go. I pointed out the position and one of them answered: "There nothing there! " I advised him to take his glasses on as he can't see very well without.
Now everything is under control. Thank you!

Grece es parecida a otros tropical ciclones del Norte este atlántico ignorados:


unnamed 92L Jun.2009 50 knots (tropical storm)




unnamed Sept. 2008 50 knots (tropical storm)


unamed Jun. 2009 30 knots (tropical depression)


unnamed Nov.2004 45 knots (tropical storm)


unnamed Oct.1997 (tropical storm or hurricane)

[HURAKAN]

Watch out England!!!