ATL: INVEST (97L)

[Ed Mahmoud]

We should be watching the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles. It is only 6 days from menacing the Florida Gulf Coast.


If we trust the Canadian!

[Aric Dunn]

We should be watching the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles. It is only 6 days from menacing the Florida Gulf Coast.


If we trust the Canadian!

actually i was just about to mention that... cause there is clear signs that wave has a much sharper wave axis and would favor development in the western atlantic and or western carrib when it makes it there.

[cycloneye]

If any of you are wondering where are the GFDL / HWRF plots,the first release from them will be at the 18z run,that comes out between 7:30 PM EDT-8:00 PM EDT.

[Aric Dunn]

SO this is the area to watch for the next few days ... nothing there now but it has the highest convergence and vorticity, the convection to the north is racing west while the flow to the south is lagging back giving a slight curvature to the flow as the NHC has mentioned. the latest quicscat clearly shows this from 7 utc this morning the area has since moved from the quickscat location to the area i circled in the satellite image. if convection starts to fire near this area then it will have a better chance than to try and close off a low farther north in that stronger flow. so watch it tonight if you like or just sleep and wake up. lol i will be on nearly all night since im at school doing some atmospheric work



image is blurry you have to open and zoom in

[Ed Mahmoud]

We should be watching the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles. It is only 6 days from menacing the Florida Gulf Coast.


If we trust the Canadian!

actually i was just about to mention that... cause there is clear signs that wave has a much sharper wave axis and would favor development in the western atlantic and or western carrib when it makes it there.

Euro stretches the vorticity of that wave approaching the islands, helped by strong Easterlies in the Caribbean and lighter winds North of the Greater Antilles, and looks like it wants to close a low off the Southeast Day 7, but then doesn't do it. At Day 7, I have to switch from my secret sauce to the ECMWF page, and darn, the low publicly available display resolution cheeses me off.



Anyway, in shear now, but looks about as good as 97L.




I don't think 97L will be an invest or cyclone come Monday morning. Just a hunch.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If any of you are wondering where are the GFDL / HWRF plots,the first release from them will be at the 18z run,that comes out between 7:30 PM EDT-8:00 PM EDT.

If it hasn't been deactivated by then...

[cycloneye]

Regardless of what happens with waves 1-2,we will endure a wet period here in the Eastern Caribbean islands.If any member wants to see what is going on in the Eastern Caribbean islands during the next wet days,go to Weather Attic forum and look for the Eastern Caribbean thread there to follow that. Link below.

Eastern Caribbean Thread

[Aric Dunn]

Euro stretches the vorticity of that wave approaching the islands, helped by strong Easterlies in the Caribbean and lighter winds North of the Greater Antilles, and looks like it wants to close a low off the Southeast Day 7, but then doesn't do it. At Day 7, I have to switch from my secret sauce to the ECMWF page, and darn, the low publicly available display resolution cheeses me off.





I don't think 97L will be an invest or cyclone come Monday morning. Just a hunch.

Hey you know about this link right i have been posted for a couple years now. but its the euro a little better resolution, only thing is it updates the 12z at about 4 to 5 pm and the 00z about 1 am, and onlt goes out 168 hours, which for the tropics is pretty darn good

12Z
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

00Z
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Sanibel]

Spin is pretty good considering the lack of convection. This could just be a d-min. If it bursts again it's in business.

[floridasun78]

Euro stretches the vorticity of that wave approaching the islands, helped by strong Easterlies in the Caribbean and lighter winds North of the Greater Antilles, and looks like it wants to close a low off the Southeast Day 7, but then doesn't do it. At Day 7, I have to switch from my secret sauce to the ECMWF page, and darn, the low publicly available display resolution cheeses me off.





I don't think 97L will be an invest or cyclone come Monday morning. Just a hunch.

Hey you know about this link right i have been posted for a couple years now. but its the euro a little better resolution, only thing is it updates the 12z at about 4 to 5 pm and the 00z about 1 am, and onlt goes out 168 hours, which for the tropics is pretty darn good

12Z
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

00Z
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

it like shear move north out area by next week

[rrm]

anybody have any ideas if this thing will develop when will it be

[wxman57]

Here's a final visible for today. Looks like just a moderate tropical wave with diminishing convection. No surface rotation, some spin aloft. I don't think it'll be an invest for long if it keeps looking as it does now.

[micktooth]

I think because of the slow start to the season, they are just throwing us a bone

[Aric Dunn]

At least as far as the gfs is concerned the western carrib becomes favorable at least in the shear category in about 78 hours and then the western Atlantic east of Florida and the Bahamas become favorable by 120 hours or 5 days. which is when the Euro has some sort of some piece of the energy running up the east coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

This is an interesting snippet from the latest HPC Carib discussion posted a few hours ago. They are saying that TUTT is going to pull northward which will decrease the shear across the Caribbean. It corresponds to when this second tropical wave gets there.

This is quite a bit different than their previous discussion which indicated the TUTT would persist across the Eastern Caribbean.

AT 250 HPA...A NARROW/ELONGATED TUTT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO THE GREATER ANTILLES/NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH
MEANDERS IN THIS AREA THROUGH 36-48 HRS. AFTER 60 HRS...AS A DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN USA/GULF OF
MEXICO...THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES INTO THE BAHAMAS. AS IT PULLS AWAY...A RIDGE IS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH MODELS SHOWING A HIGH FORMING
NORTH OF THE ABC ISLANDS BY 48-72 HRS. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE VENTILATION TO DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER IN THE PERIOD...COINCIDING WITH ARRIVAL OF
A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

[Aric Dunn]

This is an interesting snippet from the latest HPC Carib discussion posted a few hours ago. They are saying that TUTT is going to pull northward which will decrease the shear across the Caribbean. It corresponds to when this second tropical wave gets there.

This is quite a bit different than their previous discussion which indicated the TUTT would persist across the Eastern Caribbean.

AT 250 HPA...A NARROW/ELONGATED TUTT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO THE GREATER ANTILLES/NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH
MEANDERS IN THIS AREA THROUGH 36-48 HRS. AFTER 60 HRS...AS A DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN USA/GULF OF
MEXICO...THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES INTO THE BAHAMAS. AS IT PULLS AWAY...A RIDGE IS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH MODELS SHOWING A HIGH FORMING
NORTH OF THE ABC ISLANDS BY 48-72 HRS. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE VENTILATION TO DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER IN THE PERIOD...COINCIDING WITH ARRIVAL OF
A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

hehe.. was just looking at the gfs run showing that evolution

[Aric Dunn]

hey when did the NRL site start putting up spaghetti model images

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[senorpepr]

hey when did the NRL site start putting up spaghetti model images

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

For several years, they've shown the spaghetti models on occasion.

[Aric Dunn]

hey when did the NRL site start putting up spaghetti model images

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

For several years, they've shown the spaghetti models on occasion.

weird.. i guess either i dont remember seeing them or its been a long time since they have for the atlantic... that or school has completely driven me insane to where i cant remember ..

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS does break down the TUTT in 24 hours, though I have my doubts it'll be gone that quickly. But without any LLC and/or significant organized convection, all we'll have is just another tropical wave moving to the west across the tropics. So development chances would still be low.