ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[tolakram]

That's the LLC



Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[ozonepete]

Your initial forecast, based on climo, was right.

"Wasn't based on climo, was based on the projected upper-air pattern across the northern Gulf this week. The Gulf has been ripping with shear most of the season."



Time for bed. Another early day tomorrow.

[quote="ozonepete"]
Fair enough. I stand corrected. But climo would have covered this case.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 100328
AF304 0811A IDA HDOB 20 20091110
032100 2847N 08842W 8426 01509 0024 +181 +069 244044 045 014 002 00
032130 2844N 08842W 8425 01512 0025 +181 +068 246044 045 015 002 00
032200 2843N 08842W 8434 01503 0028 +179 +067 247045 045 016 001 00
032230 2841N 08842W 8428 01512 0029 +180 +067 252044 045 015 003 00
032300 2840N 08842W 8436 01506 0035 +172 +066 253044 045 016 002 00
032330 2838N 08843W 8422 01521 0038 +170 +066 252042 043 016 002 00
032400 2837N 08843W 8429 01515 0041 +167 +065 249040 040 015 002 00
032430 2835N 08843W 8429 01516 0045 +163 +064 247039 039 014 002 00
032500 2834N 08843W 8433 01513 0043 +168 +063 249037 039 012 002 00
032530 2832N 08843W 8433 01514 0055 +150 +062 240037 038 012 001 00
032600 2831N 08843W 8424 01522 0065 +135 +060 238037 038 010 001 00
032630 2830N 08843W 8425 01524 0067 +135 +058 238036 037 007 002 00
032700 2828N 08843W 8432 01518 0068 +135 +055 239036 037 012 001 00
032730 2827N 08843W 8425 01527 0070 +136 +055 242038 040 000 004 00
032800 2825N 08843W 8436 01518 0069 +140 +055 244039 040 002 002 00
032830 2824N 08844W 8430 01524 0070 +141 +056 247039 040 000 004 00
032900 2822N 08844W 8430 01528 0071 +145 +057 251040 040 000 004 00
032930 2821N 08844W 8429 01529 0074 +140 +058 248039 039 000 003 03
033000 2819N 08844W 8425 01533 0076 +140 +058 246038 038 000 004 00
033030 2818N 08844W 8434 01526 0077 +140 +059 247037 038 000 002 03
$$
;

[wxman57]

Hardly any tropical feel to the air tonight, kinda chilly to me. Car temp indicated 64 but Gulfport airport is reporting upper 60's. My first and likely only November TC has been different experience than a TC during the warmer months, kinda like Christmas in July.....The center of Ida is clearly visible on radar south of the MS/AL border. Its a mess down in the Gulf, Ida is badly sheared, cool air is being drawn into the circulation. How Ida has not become ET is beyond me. Hopefully this mess gets out of here for tomorrow. Everyone that is in Ida's way stay safe.....MGC

I think what you see on radar is the sheared off mid level circulation. The LLC is well out in the Gulf and moving more slowly northward. Good news for you - not much impact from Ida. Should be a nice day there tomorrow after the low clouds clear out.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 100332
XXAA 60038 99293 70888 08198 99999 23601 14522 00512 ///// /////
92670 21617 11508 85402 19650 13508 88999 77999
31313 09608 80310
61616 AF304 0811A IDA OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 2928N08876W 0312 MBL WND 15522 AEV 20800 DLM WND 12
512 998843 WL150 15023 083 REL 2928N08875W 031019 SPG 2928N08876W
031212 =
XXBB 60038 99293 70888 08198 00999 23601 11934 22224 22872 18609
33850 19650 44843 18461
21212 00999 14522 11976 15526 22962 15524 33939 17510 44932 13005
55899 07515 66873 06513 77853 13010 88843 16504
31313 09608 80310
61616 AF304 0811A IDA OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 2928N08876W 0312 MBL WND 15522 AEV 20800 DLM WND 12
512 998843 WL150 15023 083 REL 2928N08875W 031019 SPG 2928N08876W
031212 =
;

[Dave]

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 29.28N 88.76W
Splash Time: 3:12Z

Release Location: 29.28N 88.75W View map)
Release Time: 3:10:19Z

Splash Location: 29.28N 88.76W (
Splash Time: 3:12:12Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 22 knots (25 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 998mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 23 knots (26 mph)

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 100335
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 10/03:10:30Z
B. 29 deg 17 min N
088 deg 45 min W
C. 850 mb 1404 m
D. 63 kt
E. 347 deg 30 nm
F. 085 deg 66 kt
G. 351 deg 46 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 12 C / 1525 m
J. 20 C / 1523 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF304 0811A IDA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 02:26:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 167 / 16 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 100338
AF304 0811A IDA HDOB 21 20091110
033100 2816N 08844W 8428 01536 0079 +139 +059 251036 036 000 002 03
033130 2816N 08844W 8428 01536 0080 +140 +059 254035 035 999 999 03
033200 2813N 08844W 8431 01533 0081 +140 +059 255034 035 999 999 03
033230 2812N 08844W 8432 01534 0083 +137 +060 253034 034 999 999 03
033300 2810N 08844W 8429 01534 0084 +135 +060 254033 034 000 003 03
033330 2809N 08845W 8430 01535 0086 +135 +060 256034 034 999 999 03
033400 2807N 08845W 8430 01536 0087 +135 +060 258034 034 999 999 03
033430 2806N 08845W 8429 01538 0088 +132 +059 259035 035 999 999 03
033500 2804N 08845W 8430 01538 0087 +138 +059 259034 035 999 999 03
033530 2803N 08845W 8429 01541 0091 +138 +059 259034 035 999 999 03
033600 2801N 08844W 8421 01552 0087 +148 +060 254034 034 999 999 03
033630 2802N 08842W 8438 01533 0077 +158 +063 252032 033 000 003 03
033700 2802N 08839W 8427 01543 0071 +167 +064 248030 030 000 004 00
033730 2802N 08837W 8426 01545 0067 +175 +065 240031 032 000 004 00
033800 2802N 08835W 8433 01537 0067 +174 +067 235032 033 001 003 00
033830 2803N 08833W 8430 01541 0075 +163 +067 228032 033 000 004 00
033900 2803N 08831W 8427 01545 0086 +143 +067 231035 036 004 003 00
033930 2803N 08829W 8427 01544 0084 +147 +064 226037 037 015 001 00
034000 2803N 08827W 8428 01544 0083 +150 +062 225037 038 014 000 00
034030 2803N 08825W 8428 01544 0081 +153 +061 226037 038 011 000 00
$$
;

[Dave]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 03:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 3:10:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°17'N 88°45'W (29.2833N 88.75W)
B. Center Fix Location: 80 miles (128 km) to the SSE (166°) from Gulfport, MS, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,404m (4,606ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the NNW (347°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 85° at 66kts (From the E at ~ 76.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 2:26:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SSE (167°) from the flight level center

[CrazyC83]

What is all that convection from Florida downward? Looks frontal to me.

The SFMR also just found 66 and 67 kt winds. I'd say this is a 65 kt extratropical system right now.

[Dave]

[Dave]

[ozonepete]

What is all that convection from Florida downward? Looks frontal to me.

The SFMR also just found 66 and 67 kt winds. I'd say this is a 65 kt extratropical system right now.

Whoowee are you stepping into a hornet's nest! There's a lot of debate going on about what that is. I'm going to bow out, other than saying that IDA is definitely involved, or was involved before its recent demise.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 100348
AF304 0811A IDA HDOB 22 20091110
034100 2803N 08823W 8426 01546 0080 +155 +061 226037 037 007 002 00
034130 2804N 08821W 8434 01538 0081 +155 +061 226037 038 015 001 00
034200 2804N 08818W 8432 01542 0084 +152 +061 222039 040 017 000 00
034230 2804N 08816W 8427 01547 0087 +150 +062 218040 041 017 001 00
034300 2804N 08814W 8432 01543 0087 +150 +061 215041 041 019 000 00
034330 2804N 08812W 8426 01549 0087 +149 +060 211041 041 018 001 00
034400 2805N 08810W 8428 01546 0087 +151 +060 210040 040 017 002 00
034430 2805N 08808W 8433 01542 0085 +155 +059 212040 041 018 002 00
034500 2805N 08806W 8430 01545 0086 +154 +059 212040 040 019 002 00
034530 2805N 08804W 8426 01551 0088 +152 +059 211040 040 023 000 00
034600 2805N 08802W 8429 01548 0090 +150 +059 209040 040 020 001 00
034630 2805N 08800W 8430 01548 0090 +150 +058 208040 040 021 001 00
034700 2806N 08758W 8430 01549 0091 +148 +058 209040 040 024 000 00
034730 2806N 08756W 8430 01548 0093 +150 +058 210040 040 020 002 00
034800 2806N 08754W 8426 01553 0094 +150 +058 210040 040 020 001 00
034830 2806N 08752W 8432 01548 0095 +150 +058 206038 040 021 002 00
034900 2806N 08750W 8426 01554 0095 +150 +058 201039 040 021 001 00
034930 2806N 08748W 8435 01548 0099 +145 +057 200041 042 021 002 00
035000 2807N 08746W 8427 01556 0101 +144 +057 202041 041 021 002 00
035030 2807N 08744W 8426 01558 0101 +145 +057 201041 041 021 002 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MC9872

Theodore, AL supposedly reporting 77 mph winds, but the accuracy might be suspect.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 100348
AF304 0811A IDA HDOB 22 20091110
034100 2803N 08823W 8426 01546 0080 +155 +061 226037 037 007 002 00
034130 2804N 08821W 8434 01538 0081 +155 +061 226037 038 015 001 00
034200 2804N 08818W 8432 01542 0084 +152 +061 222039 040 017 000 00
034230 2804N 08816W 8427 01547 0087 +150 +062 218040 041 017 001 00
034300 2804N 08814W 8432 01543 0087 +150 +061 215041 041 019 000 00
034330 2804N 08812W 8426 01549 0087 +149 +060 211041 041 018 001 00
034400 2805N 08810W 8428 01546 0087 +151 +060 210040 040 017 002 00
034430 2805N 08808W 8433 01542 0085 +155 +059 212040 041 018 002 00
034500 2805N 08806W 8430 01545 0086 +154 +059 212040 040 019 002 00
034530 2805N 08804W 8426 01551 0088 +152 +059 211040 040 023 000 00
034600 2805N 08802W 8429 01548 0090 +150 +059 209040 040 020 001 00
034630 2805N 08800W 8430 01548 0090 +150 +058 208040 040 021 001 00
034700 2806N 08758W 8430 01549 0091 +148 +058 209040 040 024 000 00
034730 2806N 08756W 8430 01548 0093 +150 +058 210040 040 020 002 00
034800 2806N 08754W 8426 01553 0094 +150 +058 210040 040 020 001 00
034830 2806N 08752W 8432 01548 0095 +150 +058 206038 040 021 002 00
034900 2806N 08750W 8426 01554 0095 +150 +058 201039 040 021 001 00
034930 2806N 08748W 8435 01548 0099 +145 +057 200041 042 021 002 00
035000 2807N 08746W 8427 01556 0101 +144 +057 202041 041 021 002 00
035030 2807N 08744W 8426 01558 0101 +145 +057 201041 041 021 002 00
$$
;

[Janie2006]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MC9872

Theodore, AL supposedly reporting 77 mph winds, but the accuracy might be suspect.

It's bogus. I'm presently only 3 miles north of that location and have reported nothing like a 77 mph gust.

[Dave]

[CrazyC83]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MC9872

Theodore, AL supposedly reporting 77 mph winds, but the accuracy might be suspect.

It's bogus. I'm presently only 3 miles north of that location and have reported nothing like a 77 mph gust.

Certainly not 77 mph sustained...the buoy in Mobile Bay is only reporting 40 mph winds right now.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 100358
AF304 0811A IDA HDOB 23 20091110
035100 2807N 08742W 8428 01558 0103 +145 +057 199040 040 022 000 00
035130 2807N 08740W 8430 01554 0104 +145 +057 195039 040 023 001 00
035200 2807N 08738W 8430 01557 0104 +144 +057 194040 040 020 002 00
035230 2807N 08736W 8431 01557 0105 +143 +057 192040 040 014 004 00
035300 2807N 08734W 8430 01556 0105 +145 +058 192039 039 015 003 00
035330 2808N 08732W 8433 01554 0106 +143 +058 193039 039 013 004 00
035400 2808N 08730W 8432 01559 0107 +143 +059 191038 038 013 004 00
035430 2808N 08728W 8428 01561 0108 +141 +059 191037 038 015 003 00
035500 2808N 08726W 8429 01562 0108 +144 +059 192037 037 018 002 00
035530 2808N 08725W 8435 01557 0109 +144 +060 193036 037 017 003 00
035600 2808N 08723W 8433 01558 0109 +140 +060 193035 035 016 004 00
035630 2808N 08721W 8429 01563 0110 +143 +060 194034 035 017 003 00
035700 2809N 08719W 8429 01563 0110 +145 +060 195035 036 017 003 00
035730 2809N 08717W 8428 01566 0112 +145 +060 194035 035 019 002 00
035800 2809N 08715W 8434 01560 0112 +145 +060 192035 035 019 002 00
035830 2809N 08713W 8428 01566 0113 +145 +061 190036 036 013 003 00
035900 2809N 08711W 8428 01567 0115 +145 +061 189035 036 012 003 03
035930 2810N 08710W 8421 01579 0120 +145 +062 186035 036 999 999 03
040000 2812N 08711W 8431 01563 0112 +145 +063 188033 034 006 004 03
040030 2812N 08711W 8431 01563 0111 +145 +063 188034 034 013 003 00
$$
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