ATL: INVEST (97L)

[tailgater]

Looks like it's moving in a WNW direction now and still trying to fight off the shear.
Can we move the floater over 97 again? Please I like to watch!

[tailgater]

The spin that is evident on this radar is probably mid level with most of the low level vorticity a little to the west of that( my guess).
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

[Derek Ortt]

there is a floater over it at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

[tailgater]

Doesn't look like conditions will allow for development in GOM.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_ ... _loop.html
This is one the few models that brings the moisture into the GOM. I, as well as some of my friends in Texas, coukd use the rain.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...PASSING
OVER PUERTO RICO INTO CENTRAL VENEZUELA...MOVING WEST ABOUT
20 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS OF 16N65W.
$$
MT

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/0545 UTC 15.0N 64.6W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic

[shortwave]

looks like what is left will be heading over hispaniola, possibly the final nail.

[Ed Mahmoud]

looks like what is left will be heading over hispaniola, possibly the final nail.

I'm not sure there is anything to disrupt over the Cordillera.


Just wait to see what environment the remnants are in in the Bahamas in 2 to 3 days. Under the screaming shear of the trough, or in the induced small anticyclone, in the upper motion region of the screaming shear, not under it.

Nothing the next two days, at least.


IMHO.

[Gustywind]

Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 21, 2009 5:53 am ET
The tropics are mainly quiet.

A tropical wave is moving into the eastern Caribbean. It is currently bringing some showers and occasionally gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, but any rain and wind will subside as the wave moves westward.

Strong upper-level winds are impacting this wave preventing it from developing.

This wave may bring some rain and gusty winds to Puerto Rico and the Turks and Caicos over the next day or two.

Although it has been a relatively slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, the season is historically only about 13% complete at this time of year. In the active 2004 season (which produced four U.S. hurricane landfalls), the first storm was not named until August 1.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

[cycloneye]

Area near Bahamas enters the fray.

581
ABNT20 KNHC 211157
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

[b]THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES
IN THE AREA ARE HIGH...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
[/b]

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 210905
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST TUE JUL 21 2009

THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RACING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. FEW OF THEM MOVED INLAND ACROSS ST THOMAS
AND ST JOHN...BUT DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. THE WINDS WERE MOSTLY FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOCAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
MORNING RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED JUST ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THE WAVE AXIS WAS JUST ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN
THE MORNING. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS OBSERVED EARLY IN THE MORNING WELL SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF ST CROIX. FAST MOVING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL ISLANDS
EFFECTS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION
TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY LATE WEDNESDAY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST.

SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND SEAS UP TO 8 FEET WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

$$

[gatorcane]

I have to say 97L definitely is a fighter. Had the TUTT shear axis indeed moved north of the Caribbean as the GFS had once thought, its quite possible we would have a named storm right now. Shear seems to be increasing still though.

[Weatherboy1]

Hold on a second -- when I look at the visible satellite loop, I can clearly see what looks like a "naked swirl"/LLC in the early morning hours to the SW of the main area of convection. Then it becomes covered in the latter frames of this satellite image. Watch 15N 65W at the beginning of the floater loop to see if I'm going crazy. While the shear could easily kill this thing, I think this thing has a clear low level spin.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Blown Away]

Hold on a second -- when I look at the visible satellite loop, I can clearly see what looks like a "naked swirl"/LLC in the early morning hours to the SW of the main area of convection. Then it becomes covered in the latter frames of this satellite image. Watch 15N 65W at the beginning of the floater loop to see if I'm going crazy. While the shear could easily kill this thing, I think this thing has a clear low level spin.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I see what you are talking about, not sure it is low level, but a definite rotation. Heading rate for Hispanola. What a friggen magnet that place is, geeez.

[HURAKAN]

183
WHXX01 KWBC 211242
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 UTC TUE JUL 21 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20090721 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090721 1200 090722 0000 090722 1200 090723 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 66.7W 17.5N 70.8W 19.4N 74.7W 21.4N 77.5W
BAMD 15.9N 66.7W 16.7N 69.0W 17.6N 71.5W 18.6N 74.0W
BAMM 15.9N 66.7W 17.3N 69.9W 18.7N 73.0W 20.4N 75.6W
LBAR 15.9N 66.7W 17.5N 70.1W 19.6N 73.2W 22.0N 76.0W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090723 1200 090724 1200 090725 1200 090726 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.2N 79.2W 26.4N 79.1W 29.2N 75.4W 30.8N 72.1W
BAMD 19.3N 76.2W 20.5N 79.9W 21.3N 82.6W 23.0N 83.9W
BAMM 21.8N 77.4W 24.1N 78.9W 26.2N 78.6W 29.6N 77.2W
LBAR 24.5N 77.6W 29.8N 76.0W 33.6N 71.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 36KTS 46KTS 55KTS 62KTS
DSHP 31KTS 41KTS 51KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.9N LONCUR = 66.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 23KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 62.1W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 57.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

21/1145 UTC 15.9N 66.7W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic

Back to 1.0

[hurricanefloyd5]

I have to say 97L definitely is a fighter. Had the TUTT shear axis indeed moved north of the Caribbean as the GFS had once thought, its quite possible we would have a named storm right now. Shear seems to be increasing still though.

I have to disagree this looks nothing like a ts and 2nd this is not going to be a ts this fast!!!!!!!!LOL

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

I have to say 97L definitely is a fighter. Had the TUTT shear axis indeed moved north of the Caribbean as the GFS had once thought, its quite possible we would have a named storm right now. Shear seems to be increasing still though.

I have to disagree this looks nothing like a ts and 2nd this is not going to be a ts this fast!!!!!!!!LOL

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I think hurricanefloyd5 was refering to the fact that if the shear had moved out like GFS once forecasted, we could have Ana at the moment given 97L fighting abilities.

[wxman57]

Hold on a second -- when I look at the visible satellite loop, I can clearly see what looks like a "naked swirl"/LLC in the early morning hours to the SW of the main area of convection. Then it becomes covered in the latter frames of this satellite image. Watch 15N 65W at the beginning of the floater loop to see if I'm going crazy. While the shear could easily kill this thing, I think this thing has a clear low level spin.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Good catch. That's the remnant mid-level swirl. It's not at the surface. Here's a surface plot of the region. Nothing to indicate any circulation. Buoy just south of where that swirl would be now has ESE wind 10 kts.

[boca]

I think the flareup is due to the shear and 97L is not a ts.I think this will pass Florida to the east due to the bermuda high. The same for the area in the Bahamas it will mostly head north.