SIO: GAEL - Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

837
WTIO30 FMEE 041254

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/8/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/04 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9S / 59.8E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 200

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/05 00 UTC: 18.0S/57.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2009/02/05 12 UTC: 18.3S/55.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/02/06 00 UTC: 18.6S/53.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/02/06 12 UTC: 19.1S/51.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/02/07 00 UTC: 19.8S/50.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/02/07 12 UTC: 20.3S/49.8E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0

THE SYSTEM STILL UNDERGOES A SOUTHERLY CONSTRAINT (LIGHT ARC OF CIRRUS,
AND LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE SOUTH ACCORDING THE TRMM DATA AT 0945Z)
..

GAEL IS TRACKING ALONG THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT IN
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
CURVE THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
GENERAL CO
NSENSUS.

WINDSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS BECOME EXCELLENT BEYOND 36 HOURS (GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, HIGH
SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK WINDSHEAR.

MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS LIKELY SHOULD NOT BE CONCERNED BY THE
ACTIVE PART OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS IN THE NORTH OF THE MASCARENES
ISLANDS. THESE ISLANDS SHOULD HOWEVER CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
SYSTEM.
RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, INTEREST ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TOO.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 FEB 2009 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 17:49:33 S Lon : 59:48:26 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 984.3mb/ 57.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.6 3.6 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.9mb

Center Temp : -80.5C Cloud Region Temp : -79.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[gigabyte89]

[gigabyte89]

Code: Select all

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmirimg_loop.asp?storm_identifier=SH132009&starting_image=2009SH13_4KMIRIMG_200902022000.GIF

[Chacor]

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS TWO IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS TWOIS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS

5TH CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 16H10 HOURS ON 04 FEBRUARY 2009.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MODERATE TROPICAL STORM GAEL HAS
INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.
AT 1600 HOURS SEVERE TROPICAL STORM GAEL WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 KM
RADIUS OF LATITUDE 17.9 DEGREES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 60.0
DEGREES EAST,
AT ABOUT 360 KM TO THE NORTH EAST OF MAURITIUS.
GAEL IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTH WEST AT A REDUCED SPEED OF
15KM/H. ON THIS TRAJECTORY, GAEL IS APPROACHING MAURITIUS AND
REPRESENTS A THREAT. A CHANGE IN ITS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SOUTH
WILL BRING THE CENTRE CLOSER TO MAURITIUS.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS TWO IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS.
WEATHER WILL BE CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH PASSING SHOWERS, HEAVY AT
TIMES BUT MORE FREQUENT OVER THE HIGH GROUNDS, TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH.

SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KM/HR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH GUSTS OF 90 TO 100 KM/HR LATE AT NIGHT.

SEA WILL BE VERY ROUGH.

THE PUBLIC IS STRONGLY ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT AT SEA.

NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 22H10.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS TWO IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS TWO IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.=

[CrazyC83]

Seems like it is closing off an eyewall?

[HURAKAN]

Seems like it is closing off an eyewall?

Not likely.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

693
WTIO30 FMEE 041820

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/8/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/04 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9S / 59.0E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 44 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 300

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/05 06 UTC: 18.2S/57.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/02/05 18 UTC: 18.4S/54.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/02/06 06 UTC: 18.7S/52.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/02/06 18 UTC: 19.4S/50.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/07 06 UTC: 20.0S/50.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2009/02/07 18 UTC: 20.5S/49.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0+
LAST METEOSAT7 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CLEARLY
IMPROVING.
MICROWAVE SSMIS F16 AT 1600Z REVEALS A CURVED BAND PATTERN, WINDSHEAR HAS
CLEARLY WEAKENED.
WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 1414Z QUIKSCAT SWATH.
GAEL IS TRACKING ALONG THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT IN
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON TRACKING WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
CURVE THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
GENERAL CO
NSENSUS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME EXCELLENT BEYOND 36 HOURS (GOOD
LOW LEVEL INFLOW, HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK
WINDSHEAR)

MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS LIKELY SHOULD NOT BE CONCERNED BY THE
ACTIVE PART OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS IN THE NORTH OF THE MASCARENES
ISLANDS. THESE ISLANDS SHOULD HOWEVER CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
SYSTEM.
RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, INTEREST ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TOO.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 50 knots

[HURAKAN]

04/2030 UTC 25.2S 56.7E T3.5/3.5 GAEL -- Southwest Indian
04/1430 UTC 17.4S 60.1E T3.0/3.0 GAEL -- Southwest Indian

Unless Gael moved close to the speed of light, there is very likely an error with the coordinates!

[HURAKAN]

Fixed: 04/2030 UTC 18.3S 59.3E T3.5/3.5 GAEL -- Southwest Indian

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 042100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 59.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 59.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.1S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.2S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.4S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.1S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 58.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A 041756Z TMI COMPOSITE IMAGE
SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT STORM POSITION AND MOTION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TC 13S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM 67083 AND 61995 INDICATE EASTERLY TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE BUILT OVER MADAGASCAR.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36,
AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
OVER MADAGASCAR AND WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALLOWING TC 13S TO BEGIN
RE-CURVING. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY UP TO 90 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.//

[CrazyC83]

JTWC isn't quite as bullish as Meteo-France yet.

With no apparent hints of an eye at this point, 50 kt seems right.

[Crostorm]

617
WTIO30 FMEE 050021

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/8/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/05 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1S / 58.5E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 300

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/05 12 UTC: 18.5S/56.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/02/06 00 UTC: 18.6S/54.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/02/06 12 UTC: 19.0S/52.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/02/07 00 UTC: 20.1S/51.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2009/02/07 12 UTC: 21.0S/51.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2009/02/08 00 UTC: 21.7S/51.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-
LOCATION OF THE CENTER STILL REMAINS RATHER APPROXIMATIVE BUT WITHIN THE
NEXT HOURS LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WITHIN LA REUNION DOPPLER RADAR'S
RANGE ALLOWING MORE PRECISE MONITORED LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS BUILDING POLEWARD AS SHOWED BY
NORTHWARDS AND NORTHEASTWARDS CIRRUS OUTFLOW REVEALING AN IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
MICROWAVE SSMIS 04/1600Z AND TRMM 04/1756Z REVEALS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HEAD OF THE CURVED
BAND.
DESPITE WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKENED WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS, A SLIGHT
CONSTRAINT STILL EXISTS.
04/1414Z QUIKSCAT SWATH SHOWED A BROAD WEAK WIND AREA NEAR THE CENTER
(50NM DIAMETER FROM WEST TO EAST). THIS RATHER BAD ORGANIZATION OF LOW
LEVEL VORTEX IS CONFIRMED BY MICROWAVE 37GHZ CHANNELS AND SEEMS THERFORE
NOT OPTIMAL FOR A RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.
THIS FIX IS THEREFORE A LITTLE BIT CONSERVATIVE DESPITE THE IMPROVING
SATELLITE INFRARED PRESENTATION AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS ALSO LIMITED TO A CLIMATOLOGIC RATE.
GAEL IS STILL TRACKING ALONG THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
PRESENT IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP ON
TRACKING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND, A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GENE
RAL CONSENSUS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME EXCELLENT BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS
(GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK
WINDSHEAR)

MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION ISLANDS LIKELY SHOULD NOT BE CONCERNED BY THE
ACTIVE PART OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS IN THE NORTH OF THE MASCARENES
ISLANDS. THESE ISLANDS SHOULD HOWEVER CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
SYSTEM.
RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, INTEREST ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TOO.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

45 kt/987 hPa at 0300z intermediate update from MF. Yellow alert for Île Réunion.

[Chacor]

CYCLONE WARNING

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS TWO IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS TWO IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS

7TH CYCLONE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 04H10 HOURS ON 05 FEBRUARY 2009.
AT 0400 HOURS SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 'GAEL' WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
KM RADIUS OF LATITUDE 17.9 DEGREES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 59.0
DEGREES EAST,AT ABOUT 270 KM TO THE NORTH NORTH EAST OF MAURITIUS.

'GAEL' CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION AT A
SPEED OF 11KM/H. ON THIS TRAJECTORY IT IS STILL APPROACHING
MAURITIUS, AND REMAINS A THREAT. GAEL IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
CYCLONIC WINDS YET GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THIS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SOUTH IS STILL
POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY BRING THE CENTRE EVEN CLOSER TO MAURITIUS.

IT WILL PASSS AT ITS CLOSEST DISTANCE OF ABOUT 200 KM OFF THE NORTH
COASTS OF MAURITIUS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS TWO IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS.
WEATHER WILL BE CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH SHOWERS MODERATE TO HEAVY
AT TIMES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MORE FREQUENT OVER THE HIGH
GROUNDS, TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.

EAST SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KM/H WILL PERSISTS WITH GUSTS
OF THE ORDER OF 100 KM/H.

SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY ROUGH.

THE PUBLIC IS STRONGLY ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT AT SEA.


HIGHEST GUSTS RECORDED DURING THE NIGHT:

TROU AUX CERFS: 79 KM/H,
NOUVELLE DECOUVERTE : 86 KM/H,
MON LOISIR ROUILLARD : 68 KM/H,
DOMAINE LE PAILLES : 76 KM/H.

NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 10H10 THIS MORNING.

A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS TWO IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS
A CYCLONE WARNING CLASS TWO IS IN FORCE IN MAURITIUS=

[Chacor]

60 kt, 976 hPa at 15z.

Eye forming.


Should reach TC status at 18z or 21z.