EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[bombarderoazul]

We could be looking at Jimena very soon.

[clfenwi]

Quikscat pass from this evening seems to nicely validate the 30 knots rating at advisory time:

[HouTXmetro]

Can this system potentially affect Southern California?

[clfenwi]

Can this system potentially affect Southern California?

Can't rule it out at this time, but it would seem unlikely for coastal California. 0Z GFS puts it on a suicide run to the west of Baja California (where SSTs are relatively frosty before it stalls out. However, if you buy into the more eastern solutions of the GFDL and HWRF, it would be more on the southeastern side of California or Arizona that's affected. Wikipedia has a couple of comprehensive pages on California and Arizona storms. Worth checking out for anyone who's interested in past situations possibly analogous to this one.

[clfenwi]

Looking at some model runs:

00Z HWRF is very similar to the 18Z run in intensity and landfall.

00Z GFDL shifted its landfall point to the right, now in a similar position to HWRF's.

As related in the above post, the GFS keeps it off-shore. Mildly to the right of the 12Z run. Seems to be because of it keeping the storm weaker.

The Canadian was its unique self.

UKMET tracks it well to the west. NOGAPS also does the weak west thing.

Little bit of a spread in the models at this time.

[clfenwi]

29/0615 UTC 14.1N 102.0W T2.5/2.5 13E -- East Pacific



EP, 13, 2009082906, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1019W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 125, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, D,

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 290648
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0648 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTEEN (EP132009) 20090829 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        090829  0600   090829  1800   090830  0600   090830  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.9N 101.9W   14.6N 103.2W   14.9N 104.5W   15.5N 106.2W
BAMD    13.9N 101.9W   14.5N 103.6W   15.3N 105.0W   16.4N 106.0W
BAMM    13.9N 101.9W   14.4N 103.3W   15.0N 104.6W   15.7N 105.8W
LBAR    13.9N 101.9W   14.6N 103.5W   15.2N 105.3W   15.9N 107.2W
SHIP        30KTS          38KTS          48KTS          59KTS
DSHP        30KTS          38KTS          48KTS          59KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        090831  0600   090901  0600   090902  0600   090903  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.3N 107.8W   18.0N 111.3W   20.8N 113.8W   22.8N 116.0W
BAMD    17.6N 107.0W   20.6N 109.0W   24.5N 110.5W   27.8N 110.6W
BAMM    16.7N 107.1W   19.1N 109.9W   22.6N 112.5W   25.0N 114.6W
LBAR    16.8N 109.2W   19.6N 113.7W   24.2N 117.9W   27.9N 119.3W
SHIP        67KTS          77KTS          79KTS          70KTS
DSHP        67KTS          77KTS          79KTS          70KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.9N LONCUR = 101.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  13.6N LONM12 = 100.1W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  13.3N LONM24 =  97.7W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 THIRTEEN   08/29/09  06 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.1 Range: 15.2 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  82.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 136.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  83.2 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.3
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  12.8 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.1
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  64.4 Range:  4.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.5
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    59% is   5.1 times the sample mean(11.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    36% is   4.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    28% is   5.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%

Best I can tell, the only thing causing a difference between the 06Z SHIPS and 00Z was the storm "not getting points" for increasing in strength.

[clfenwi]

European remains in the "west school" as well.

[Andrew92]

Should I be worried about the possibility of this striking Mexico and then making a beeline for my area in terms of flooding?

I've only been out about two years, but I know that Arizona can sometimes get some heavy moisture out of storms like this.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 290854
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS
LIKELY EMBEDDED IN A SMALL MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO -80C...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND ARCING OUTWARD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
OVERALL...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS EXHIBITED INCREASED ORGANIZATION
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF T 2.5 AND T 3.0
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION IS
BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WITH A 35 KT INITIAL
INTENSITY.

JIMENA CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTERLY COURSE...WITH A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/10. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE COVERING CENTRAL/WESTERN MEXICO
WHICH SHOULD STEER JIMENA ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
COURSE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC ALONG 135 WEST WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS CHANGE IN THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD FORCE JIMENA TO MOVE ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
COURSE BEYOND 48 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MODEL SPREAD IS
RATHER LARGE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS MODELS
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. IN ONE CAMP...THE HWRF/GFDL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LESS RIDGING
TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN A TRACK RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
IN THE OTHER CAMP...THE UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS KEEP A MORE
ROBUST RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JIMENA AND THEREFORE TRACK THE CYCLONE
MUCH FARTHER WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...NEARLY IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND THE UPDATED MODEL CONSENSUS.

JIMENA IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CALLING FOR JIMENA
TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS. BY 96 HOURS...JIMENA SHOULD
BE TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS...AND A GENERAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT LOWER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF RUNS WHICH MAKE
JIMENA A MAJOR HURRICANE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 14.1N 102.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 14.4N 103.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 14.9N 104.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 15.4N 106.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 16.4N 107.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 19.5N 110.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 25.5N 114.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ63 KNHC 291218
TCUEP3
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
518 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009


...JIMENA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY...NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
RECENTLY RECEIVED GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM JIMENA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS
MORNING...AND MAY BE DEVELOPING AN EYE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR.

DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY 600
AM PDT...1300 UTC.

FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

Went from 35-70 in one day.

[cycloneye]

Thankfully is well off the Mexican coast.

[Kingarabian]

edit: Cycloneye beat me to it.

[RL3AO]

[cycloneye]

0
WTPZ33 KNHC 291246
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
600 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009

...JIMENA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES...ALMOST A HURRICANE...

AT 600 AM PDT...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT 270
MILES...430 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 345 MILES...
555 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND JIMENA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 600 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.2N 102.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 291247
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
600 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF JIMENA. EXTREMELY DEEP CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE CENTER OF THE STORM DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. A 0844 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THAT JIMENA HAD
DEVELOPED A SMALL EYE. IN ADDITION...A WARM SPOT IS NOW APPARENT ON
CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60
KT...A LITTLE ABOVE THE TAFB/SAB CLASSIFICATIONS...AND IF THE EYE
PERSISTS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A HURRICANE IN SHORT ORDER. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF/GFDL
MODELS...WHICH ALL SHOW VERY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...OR SOONER. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGES IN THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST ARE BEING MADE AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1300Z 14.2N 102.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 14.4N 103.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 14.9N 104.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 15.4N 106.1W 90 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 16.4N 107.3W 100 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 19.5N 110.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 25.5N 114.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Kingarabian]

Any satellite imagery?

[bombarderoazul]

It's undergoing rapid intensification! people in southern baja california need to keep an eye on this system.

[HURAKAN]

WOW!

[HouTXmetro]

That would really be something if Jimena could make a landfall near Southern California as a Tropical Storm.

[Derek Ortt]

looks like an 80KT hurricane

[Macrocane]

So the GFDL and the HWRF were right about the RI. If this thing become a cat 3 it would be a typical El Niño year on the EPAC at least a typical one since the inactive period began. Since 2000 to the date only 2002, 2004 and 2006 have had more than two major hurricanes, all of the El Niño years.