WTPQ31 PGUM 131852
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
500 AM CHST MON SEP 14 2009
...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN CURRENTLY DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND
AGRIHAN.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND AGRIHAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND TYPHOON-FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AT 400 AM CHST...1800Z...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.5 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
190 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
245 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND
290 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN HAS SLOWED IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS AND IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 4 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHOI-WAN IS
EXPECTED TO PASS A LITTLE NORTH OF SAIPAN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWEST
SEMI-CIRCLE. CHOI-WAN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 400 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 15.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 148.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 4 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 AM.
$$
WILLIAMS/MCELROY
WPAC : TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139541
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W)
Upgraded to Typhoon
WTPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 148.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 148.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.9N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.6N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.4N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.4N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.8N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.7N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.9N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 148.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH VAST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A WELL-DEFINED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS A FULLY-DEVELOPED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. TY CHOI-WAN IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTWARD-BUILT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH JAPAN (WHICH IS DIGGING
SOUTH A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED) WEAKENS THE STR ENOUGH
TO ENABLE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24. AFTER THE TROUGH
PASSES, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST. BY TAU 120, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CHINA WILL WEAKEN THE STR ENOUGH
TO ENABLE RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THE DEGREE OF AND
TIMING OF RECURVATURE IS STILL UNCERTAIN. BEFORE TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MOTION AS THE 131200Z
MINAMITORISHIMA (RJAM) UPPER-LEVEL SOUNDING STILL INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE
CURRENT POSITION DOES NOT REFLECT THE RECENTLY-AQUIRED 131614Z AMSRE
IMAGE WHICH INDICATES THAT TY 15W IS CLOSER TO 15.4N 148.5,
APPROXIMATELY 20 NM TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES BY PGTW AND RJTD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z
AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
WTPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 148.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 148.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.9N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.6N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.4N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.4N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.8N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.7N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.9N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 148.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH VAST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A WELL-DEFINED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS A FULLY-DEVELOPED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. TY CHOI-WAN IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTWARD-BUILT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH JAPAN (WHICH IS DIGGING
SOUTH A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED) WEAKENS THE STR ENOUGH
TO ENABLE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24. AFTER THE TROUGH
PASSES, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST. BY TAU 120, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CHINA WILL WEAKEN THE STR ENOUGH
TO ENABLE RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THE DEGREE OF AND
TIMING OF RECURVATURE IS STILL UNCERTAIN. BEFORE TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MOTION AS THE 131200Z
MINAMITORISHIMA (RJAM) UPPER-LEVEL SOUNDING STILL INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE
CURRENT POSITION DOES NOT REFLECT THE RECENTLY-AQUIRED 131614Z AMSRE
IMAGE WHICH INDICATES THAT TY 15W IS CLOSER TO 15.4N 148.5,
APPROXIMATELY 20 NM TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES BY PGTW AND RJTD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z
AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Luis, remember that in the WPAC the JMA is the official agency and they still have it as a severe tropical storm.
ZCZC 690
WTPQ20 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 15.6N 148.7E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
ZCZC 690
WTPQ20 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 15.6N 148.7E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139541
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)
Yes,I forgot about that.But eventually JMA will upgrade soon to typhoon.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)
cycloneye wrote:Yes,I forgot about that.But eventually JMA will upgrade soon to typhoon.
No doubt about it. This system is poised to become the strongest of the season. Only timed will tell
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 132155
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
800 AM CHST MON SEP 14 2009
...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN IS NOW A TYPHOON...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND
AGRIHAN.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND AGRIHAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND TYPHOON-FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...TYPHOON CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.2 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
205 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
175 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
230 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND
280 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN HAS SLOWED IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND IS MOVING WEST AT 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHOI-WAN IS
EXPECTED TO PASS A LITTLE NORTH OF SAIPAN TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWEST
SEMI-CIRCLE.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 148.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 3 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 11 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
CHAN/MCELROY
WTPQ31 PGUM 132155
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
800 AM CHST MON SEP 14 2009
...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN IS NOW A TYPHOON...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND
AGRIHAN.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND AGRIHAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND TYPHOON-FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...TYPHOON CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.2 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
205 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
175 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
230 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND
280 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN HAS SLOWED IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND IS MOVING WEST AT 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHOI-WAN IS
EXPECTED TO PASS A LITTLE NORTH OF SAIPAN TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWEST
SEMI-CIRCLE.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 148.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 3 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 11 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
CHAN/MCELROY
0 likes
-
StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5676
- Age: 42
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)
And there is the forcast for the turn these storms always due. lol although there seems some different tracks. we will see what this one does.
0 likes
-
brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 33
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139541
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)
Why JMA is taking its time to upgrade? JTWC did so already.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33397
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)
cycloneye wrote:Why JMA is taking its time to upgrade? JTWC did so already.
Their next advisory is in about 2 hours I believe. Also the JMA uses 10-minute sustained winds, which usually means they take longer to upgrade as it requires T4.5 from their data to reach typhoon status.
0 likes
-
StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5676
- Age: 42
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139541
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)
Here is a panoramic view.This thing is intensifying quickly.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
ZCZC 371
WTPQ20 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 15.6N 148.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 17.3N 146.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 151800UTC 19.3N 143.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 161800UTC 20.7N 139.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =
NNNN
WTPQ20 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 15.6N 148.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 17.3N 146.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 151800UTC 19.3N 143.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 161800UTC 20.7N 139.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =
NNNN
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139541
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)
It looks like it will pass just north of Saipan.For sure they will get typhoon force winds.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests