wxman57 wrote:hurricanetrack wrote:FWIW, the GFS seems to NOT develop this one but some other conglomeration of mess as this system scoots on off to the WNW. Has anyone else noticed this over the last couple of days? 91L seems to just go away as some other system takes over farther south and east. But even it does very little in the long run. I suppose we'll find out one way or another.
I noticed the 00Z GFS took the low-level vorticity into Honduras.
Right but if it were a hurricane as it enters the Western Caribbean, likely to feel the trough to the north and get pulled north.
That trough that is supposed to dive down into the Eastern CONUS early next week is quite strong when I look at the ECMWF runs.
The fact that global models don't develop this thing is good news, likely won't develop if they all agree on no development. So I'm not that concerned, yet. Clearly the global models are seeing something that would kill development once in the Caribbean.
. We continue to observe what could happpen with 91L, let's wait and see...but given our ProMets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe, a perturbed weather should bring numerous showers and tstorms Thursday. As usual we're far away from the reality, anyway we have to wait and see.