ATL: INVEST (97L)

[Aric Dunn]

Did the folks that are responsible for invests get too bored again?
The last "L" invest was an invention made out of pure boredom.

when all else fails and you think its pointless to have a invest ... just refer to this .. because for the most part they must follow it pretty closely. considering they are consistent when issuing invests.

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/trg/tropical/ ... cklist.htm

[jaxfladude]

Did the folks that are responsible for invests get too bored again?
The last "L" invest was an invention made out of pure boredom.

when all else fails and you think its pointless to have a invest ... just refer to this .. because for the most part they must follow it pretty closely. considering they are consistent when issuing invests.

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/trg/tropical/ ... cklist.htm

Good point

[Aric Dunn]

just found a crazy amount of links.. very extensive

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/tclinks.htm

also a good idea to go over some of this if you have questions

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/

[Aric Dunn]

check out the SAL plume over the western and central carrib !! and 97 L has drawn in some of that SAL but its not too bad .. bad enough though be limiting any deep convection at the moment..

[HURAKAN]

I will get excited when convection holds for about 12 to 24 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Also here is some proof that system can and often form surrounded by SAL ..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... java5.html



some more here..
from cimss
TCs that are embedded in the SAL early in their life cycle and later emerge from the SAL can often be seen undergoing a period of rapid intensification. Hurricane Erin of 2001 is an example of such an interaction

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... ava18.html

[Aric Dunn]

I will get excited when convection holds for about 12 to 24 hours.

dont blame you

still fun though

[Cookie]

well at least their is something to muse over.

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC mentions leading wave.

193
ABNT20 KNHC 172332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE
WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Aric Dunn]

not surprised about that .... considering the improvement of the low level structure throughout the day.. that will have to be watch for sure, if the winds do drop off as some of the models are hinting at..

will see another invest tomorrow if magically it some how holds onto what organization it has.

[KWT]

I totally agree, the shear is forecasted to drop once it gets further to the WNW/NW and so that front wave has a chance. It also shows probably the fate of this wave as well.

[Dean4Storms]

Still kind of surprised to have two decent waves out in the mid-Tropical Atlantic in mid July.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 97, 2009071800, , BEST, 0, 115N, 380W, 20, 1013

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Models Suite

WHXX01 KWBC 180034
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC SAT JUL 18 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20090718 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090718 0000 090718 1200 090719 0000 090719 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 38.0W 12.2N 41.6W 12.8N 44.7W 13.0N 48.0W
BAMD 11.5N 38.0W 11.7N 40.8W 11.9N 43.4W 11.8N 46.0W
BAMM 11.5N 38.0W 11.7N 41.6W 12.1N 44.6W 12.2N 47.5W
LBAR 11.5N 38.0W 11.5N 41.5W 11.7N 45.0W 11.6N 48.4W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 25KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 25KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090720 0000 090721 0000 090722 0000 090723 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 51.2W 15.7N 58.1W 19.8N 65.1W 24.2N 70.3W
BAMD 11.9N 48.5W 12.9N 53.8W 15.1N 60.1W 17.2N 67.0W
BAMM 12.5N 50.3W 14.2N 55.9W 17.4N 62.3W 20.9N 67.9W
LBAR 11.8N 51.5W 12.6N 57.5W 14.8N 64.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 36KTS 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 36KTS 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 38.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 34.6W DIRM12 = 261DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 31.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



GFDL nor HWRF came out at 18z.

[CrazyC83]

check out the SAL plume over the western and central carrib !! and 97 L has drawn in some of that SAL but its not too bad .. bad enough though be limiting any deep convection at the moment..

That will save it from having any significant land areas. Even if by some miracle this develops, it will get eaten alive by good ol' Sally.

[cheezyWXguy]

check out the SAL plume over the western and central carrib !! and 97 L has drawn in some of that SAL but its not too bad .. bad enough though be limiting any deep convection at the moment..

That will save it from having any significant land areas. Even if by some miracle this develops, it will get eaten alive by good ol' Sally.

Well its not like the SAL just sits there... It moves west and diffuses or moves on to land or into the EPAC. Just because its there now doesnt mean itll still be there by then. And seeing as the TUTT is forecast to move away by that time, conditions should really improve about 4 days down the road. The question is, what shape will the system be in by that time, because if its still active with convection and whatever circulation it has currently, then theres always a possibility. And since it is so close to home (by then), it must be watched.

[jinftl]

Exactly...african dust pushing east to west across south florida at the present time...

per NWS Miami:

DISCUSSION...
THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG BOTH COAST...AS THE AFRICAN DUST MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. THIS HAS HELPED TO KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFRICAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST THROUGH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND BE WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.



NWS Miami mentions wave in atlantic:

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA...AND ALLOW
FOR THE EASTERN WINDS TO RETURN. HOWEVER...IF THE TROPICAL WAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZE...THEN THE STEERING CURRENTS FROM THE LONG
RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT IT COULD GET PUSHED NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
FROM A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SO AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT THIS MIGHT NEED TO BE CHANGE IN LATER FORECAST DEPENDING
ON THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OR LOW.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL WAVE...PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

check out the SAL plume over the western and central carrib !! and 97 L has drawn in some of that SAL but its not too bad .. bad enough though be limiting any deep convection at the moment..

That will save it from having any significant land areas. Even if by some miracle this develops, it will get eaten alive by good ol' Sally.

Well its not like the SAL just sits there... It moves west and diffuses or moves on to land or into the EPAC. Just because its there now doesnt mean itll still be there by then. And seeing as the TUTT is forecast to move away by that time, conditions should really improve about 4 days down the road. The question is, what shape will the system be in by that time, because if its still active with convection and whatever circulation it has currently, then theres always a possibility. And since it is so close to home (by then), it must be watched.

[Rainband]

looks to be curving north in the models.

[HURAKAN]

looks to be curving north in the models.

The question is not if it will turn north but will it really develop? So far I'm not impressed.

I hope to be surprised!!!

[jinftl]

which means a weaker system could migrate further west whereas a more developed system would be more likely to recurve...the question is will a system be in a position to develop several days from now, further west.

System has made it into NWS Miami extended outlook discussion tonight:

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA...AND ALLOW
FOR THE EASTERN WINDS TO RETURN. HOWEVER...IF THE TROPICAL WAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZE...THEN THE STEERING CURRENTS FROM THE LONG
RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT IT COULD GET PUSHED NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
FROM A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SO AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT THIS MIGHT NEED TO BE CHANGE IN LATER FORECAST DEPENDING
ON THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OR LOW.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL WAVE...PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

looks to be curving north in the models.

The question is not if it will turn north but will it really develop? So far I'm not impressed.

I hope to be surprised!!!