EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 291445
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009

JIMENA HAS BEEN UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT AND
RECENTLY A SMALL EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BECOME APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION AT 1345 UTC FROM TAFB INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM WAS
NEAR 65 KT...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE SUGGESTING 70
TO 75 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING...WITH VERY WARM SSTS OVER
30C...VERY HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY AND LOW SHEAR. THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS FORECASTING A 95 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 35 KT
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HIGHEST VALUE I HAVE EVER
SEEN. IN ADDITION...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING EITHER
A CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL SHOW CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING...SHOWING A 35-KT INCREASE
FROM THE 1200 UTC SYNOPTIC INTENSITY OF 60 KT. SSTS DECREASE IN THE
LONG-RANGE...AND WEAKENING IS SHOWN AFTER DAY 3.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/08. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO
SHOULD PROVIDE THE STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR
JIMENA...WITH THE HURRICANE LIKELY MAKING A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN A
DAY OR TWO AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DISCREPANCIES IN HOW MUCH THAT RIDGE
WEAKENS DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE GFDL/HWRF SHOW ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO TURN JIMENA
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW...POISING A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA OR WESTERN MEXICO. ALL OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A RIDGE BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND JIMENA
TO CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE
HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THE HWRF/GFDL HAVE
HAD AN EASTWARD BIAS FOR THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...AND THEIR CURRENT
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD WITH TIME. THE NHC
FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE FURTHER WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENTS LATER ON...ESPECIALLY IF THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 14.3N 103.2W 70 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.6N 104.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 15.0N 105.7W 95 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.6N 106.9W 105 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 16.7N 108.2W 115 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 19.5N 111.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[CrazyC83]

70 kt is probably really conservative, and the pressure is probably quite a bit lower than 984. I'd guess 85 kt/964mb. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Category 5 hurricane by Monday.

[HurricaneRobert]

Could this one become a category 5? Quite an interesting bomb out.

[Macrocane]

Even the forecaster says that the SHIPS RI index value is the highest he has ever seen. I'm not sure if it will be a cat 5 but if the trend continues it will be very possible, and it will be the first one since Kenna on 2002 (or Ioke on 2006 if you consider CPAC-EPAC as one basin).

[pepeavilenho]

I like how is this system









I wish I`m doing it well, it's my first post.
regards

[HurricaneRobert]

Will there be a recon flight into this?

[RL3AO]

Will there be a recon flight into this?

There wouldn't be a flight unless it threatens Mexico.

[neospaceblue]

IMHO, I think Jimena could be a major right now.

[clfenwi]

No recon scheduled at this time. One would think that would have to change tomorrow so that they would fly on Monday or Tuesday if it looks like the GFDL/HWRF track scenario is going to pan out. Don't know how much lead time the squadron needs to make the journey out west, though.

NOUS42 KNHC 291345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NTIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SAT 29 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUT LOOK: POSSIBLE FIXES
NEAR 18N 54W BEGINNING AT 01/1800Z.
4. REMARKS: ALL FLYING ON TROPICAL STORM DANNY
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 29/0700Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[cyclonic chronic]

WOW pinhole eye. these systems intensify quickly by the nature of them being small. wouldnt be surprised to see a cat 5 outta this one. this is the kinda hurricane that skips whole catagories on its way up. i really hope it stays offshore of mexico. is it sparsely populated where the cone is on land?

[Squarethecircle]

Does anyone know where I could find the entire SHIPS output for Jimena?

[cycloneye]

Does anyone know where I could find the entire SHIPS output for Jimena?

Code: Select all

           *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  JIMENA      EP132009  08/29/09  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    60    70    79    87    94   102   104   104   102    98    93    81    67
V (KT) LAND       60    70    79    87    94   102   104   104   102    98    93    81    67
V (KT) LGE mod    60    71    80    89    95   104   106   104    98    88    76    63    49

SHEAR (KT)         8     9     9     6     4     3     7     5    14    12    19    17    24
SHEAR DIR         88   126   148   168   192   242   255   267   231   221   233   239   272
SST (C)         30.1  30.2  30.3  30.4  30.4  30.4  30.4  29.9  28.8  27.3  25.4  23.4  22.0
POT. INT. (KT)   165   166   167   168   168   168   169   164   153   137   116    95    79
200 MB T (C)   -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.5
TH_E DEV (C)       9    10    11    10    10    11    10    10     8     7     4     6     4
700-500 MB RH     81    79    78    79    76    71    70    68    68    69    67    61    57
GFS VTEX (KT)      9    10    11    11    13    13    13    15    16    17    17    16    14
850 MB ENV VOR     5    16    24    34    25    28    19    14    -2    20    11    25    28
200 MB DIV        67    85   109    85    80    67    26    32    22    54     3    20   -14
LAND (KM)        404   411   402   411   427   442   407   417   297   221   136   142   118
LAT (DEG N)     14.1  14.4  14.6  14.8  15.0  15.7  17.0  18.6  20.3  22.1  23.7  25.0  25.9
LONG(DEG W)    102.8 103.5 104.1 104.8 105.4 106.7 107.9 109.2 110.7 112.0 112.9 113.7 114.3
STM SPEED (KT)     8     7     7     7     7     8     9    11    11    10     8     6     5
HEAT CONTENT      73    68    54    53    69    72    50    44    32     2     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/  9      CX,CY:  -8/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  35            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  450  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   5.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  99.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   4.   5.   9.  12.  15.  17.  16.  13.   9.   5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   0.   1.   2.   4.   5.   7.   7.   6.   4.   3.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -2.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            5.   9.  11.  11.  10.   9.   7.   6.   5.   5.   4.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -7.  -7.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   0.   0.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   2.   4.   5.   6.   8.  10.  12.  13.  11.   7.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   5.   4.   3.   2.   2.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   5.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          10.  19.  27.  34.  42.  44.  44.  42.  38.  33.  21.   7.

   ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA     08/29/09  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  25.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   7.4 Range: 15.2 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  85.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.5
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 106.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  83.2 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.5
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   5.8 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  63.4 Range:  4.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.5
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    95% is   8.7 times the sample mean(11.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    95% is  13.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    95% is  19.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA     08/29/09  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##    NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED   


[CrazyC83]

Those numbers are insane. This could grow at Wilma-type rates!

My guess is that this is intensifying at about 5 to 8 mb every hour.

[cyclonic chronic]

thats the first storm i thought of

[KWT]

Yeah this is going mental, looked impressive as 93L in the Atlantic so the fact it has exploded as it has is probably not as surprising.

Still this is a shoe in major hurricane soon, category-5 really has to be on the cards with the pinhole eye, if its going to do it then with its structure it won't take that long.

[CrazyC83]

Dvorak will almost certainly severely underestimate this storm as it does poorly with pinhole eyes; I am sure jaws will drop at the NHC if they send Recon into this...

[KWT]

Probably a category-2 right now, we all remember how rapidly Wilma exploded when it had a similar presentation and how monsterous the deepening is, this seems very similar at the moment.

[Squarethecircle]

I would love for the NHC to send in recon if only for the sole purpose of scientific curiosity.

Thanks for the SHIPS output, by the way!

[KWT]

Given the way this one is developing I do wonder whether its going to feel a bigger tug to the north then some of the models are expecting bar the hurricane models?

[Cookie]