NW Australia: BILLY - Tropical Cyclone: Discussion

[Chacor]

Nice storm.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 17.9S 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 119.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.0S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.6S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.1S 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.6S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.4S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 119.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS SHOWN ON LATEST RADAR IMAGE LOOP FROM
BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDI-
CATES THE STORM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AS A 6 NM DIAMETER PINHOLE
EYE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS. CURRENT MAX SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH ALTHOUGH FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED DOWN DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO A TROUGH OR WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY STEADILY UP TO TAU 24 AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATER AND UNDER
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 24,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY THE TROUGH AND DRIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND REALIGNS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 52
Issued at 12:40 pm WDT on Wednesday, 24 December 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Pardoo to Mardie.

At 12:00 pm WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy was estimated to be
300 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
280 kilometres west of Broome and
moving west at 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy has intensified this morning well to the west of
Broome and is moving away from the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts. Billy is
expected to continue moving westwards today before taking a more northwesterly
track in the coming days.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Pardoo and
Mardie during Wednesday night and early Thursday but only if Billy takes a more
southwesterly track than expected.

Rainfall has eased over the southwest Kimberley and further significant rainfall
from this system is unlikely as the cyclone moves further away from the coast.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy at 12:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 17.8 degrees South 119.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 165 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 972 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities from Pardoo to Port Hedland and
surrounding communities should take precautions.

People in communities between Port Hedland and Mardie should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 pm WDT Wednesday 24 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Better and better by the hour.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 DEC 2008 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 17:56:55 S Lon : 119:23:14 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 979.5mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.6 3.6 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.9mb

Center Temp : -62.4C Cloud Region Temp : -70.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Sanibel]

Southpaw "fist".

It really did redevelop.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 54
Issued at 6:45 pm WDT on Wednesday, 24 December 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Pardoo to Mardie.

At 6:00 pm WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy was estimated to be
275 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
340 kilometres west of Broome and
moving west at 11 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy has intensified to the north of Port Hedland and
is moving steadily westwards. Billy is expected to remain intense over the next
24 hours and should begin to take a more northwesterly track on Christmas Day.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Pardoo and
Mardie overnight or early on Christmas day, but only if Billy takes a more
southwesterly track than expected. Minimal rainfall is expected on the Pilbara
coast unless Billy takes a more southwesterly track.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy at 6:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 17.9 degrees South 119.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 951 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities from Pardoo to Port Hedland and
surrounding communities should take precautions.

People in communities between Port Hedland and Mardie should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm WDT Wednesday 24 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0646 UTC 24/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.9S
Longitude: 119.3E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [28 km]
Movement Towards: west [260 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 962 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm [205 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 24/1800: 17.7S 117.8E: 045 [085]: 090 [165]: 953
+24: 25/0600: 17.4S 116.4E: 075 [140]: 100 [185]: 943
+36: 25/1800: 16.7S 115.0E: 110 [200]: 090 [165]: 954
+48: 26/0600: 16.2S 113.7E: 140 [260]: 080 [150]: 962
+60: 26/1800: 15.8S 112.4E: 190 [345]: 070 [130]: 971
+72: 27/0600: 15.6S 110.9E: 235 [435]: 060 [110]: 979
REMARKS:
Billy was located by radar north of Port Hedland moving steadily west, although
still undergoing slight trochoidal oscillations along the mean track. Billy has
intensified rapidly over the past 12 hours with the formation of a ragged eye
with a DT of 5.0.

Intensifaction is expected to continue over the next 24 hours as Billy moves
west in a favourable environment before weakening begins due to increased shear
and slightly cooler waters.

Model guidance is consistent with a steady W/NW track over the next 72 hours
under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, with the system remaining
well off the Pilbara coast

It appears less likely that Billy will take a track closer to the Pilbara coast,
but a small risk of gales remains for coastal parts of the Pilbara.

==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Chacor]

Up to 90 kt.

AXAU01 APRF 241302
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1302 UTC 24/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 17.8S
Longitude: 118.6E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [28 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 951 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/0000: 17.5S 117.2E: 045 [085]: 100 [185]: 939
+24: 25/1200: 17.2S 116.0E: 075 [140]: 080 [150]: 958
+36: 26/0000: 16.5S 114.6E: 110 [200]: 070 [130]: 967
+48: 26/1200: 16.1S 113.5E: 140 [260]: 055 [100]: 978
+60: 27/0000: 15.9S 112.0E: 190 [345]: 045 [085]: 985
+72: 27/1200: 15.7S 110.5E: 235 [435]: 040 [075]: 988
REMARKS:
At 12UTC Billy was located by radar 280 km north of Port Hedland moving steadily
west. Billy has intensified rapidly over the past 24 hours, with Dvorak
estimates increasing by the maximum allowable 2.5T within 24 hours. Raw DT
numbers are reaching 6.5 on the 0930Z and 1030Z images based on a W surround
with CMG/DG Eadj and ADT is also in this range on the last few images. This rate
of intensification fits a conceptual model of a small system [hence prone to
rapid development] with a well developed mid-level circulation moving away from
land into a very favourable environment.

Billy is likely to maintain intensity for approximately the next 24 hours, but
increasing shear will affect the system thereafter and once the system moves
west of 115E - on 26 December - the oceanic heat content becomes less
favourable. The system is then expected to weaken rapidly given its small size.

Model guidance is consistent with a steady W/NW track over the next 72 hours
under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, with the system remaining
well off the Pilbara coast.

While it is unlikely that Billy will take a track closer to the Pilbara coast,
several ensemble members of two generally skilful NWP models indicate that a
southwesterly or southerly motion is still possible, so cautionary community
warnings are being maintained until the risk further diminshes.

==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 105 knots

[Chacor]

That's a very intense cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 DEC 2008 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 17:57:03 S Lon : 118:30:52 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 937.3mb/107.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.4 5.9 5.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -48.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 17.8S 118.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 118.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.6S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.1S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.7S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.5S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.5S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 118.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
360 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TC
HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, WITH THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY
FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH
TAU 12 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER WARM WATER AND
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER
THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE
ENVIRONMENT SLOWLY BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE WITH IN-
CREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND 251500Z.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 56
Issued at 12:45 am WDT on Thursday, 25 December 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Pardoo to Mardie.

At 12:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy was estimated to be
295 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
370 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and
moving west at 12 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy has intensified to the north of Port Hedland and
is moving steadily westwards. Billy is expected to remain intense over the next
24 hours and should begin to take a more northwesterly track during today.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Pardoo and
Mardie during today if Billy takes a more southwesterly track. Minimal rainfall
is expected on the Pilbara coast unless Billy takes a more southwesterly track.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy at 12:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 17.7 degrees South 118.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 949 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities from Pardoo to Port Hedland and
surrounding communities should take precautions.

People in communities between Port Hedland and Mardie should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 am WDT Thursday 25 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Crostorm]

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subs ... .terra.1km

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 DEC 2008 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 18:01:21 S Lon : 118:03:54 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 931.7mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.9 5.8 5.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -28.6C Cloud Region Temp : -69.6C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Crostorm]

Here you can see nice animation

http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.h ... &stop=#nav

[Chacor]

Pinhole eye. Haven't had one of those storms in a while. Definitely a contender for Storm of the Month.

[HURAKAN]

The three areas of interest.