Mozambique Channel: Invest 94S - Discussion

[wyq614]

ECWMF ever predicted cyclogenesis in South Mozambique Channel about a week ago but later removed this cyclone-to-be, let's see what will happen in the next days.

SSD has noted this system and valued it T1.0

[Crostorm]

[Ad Novoxium]

It looks startlingly good while so far south and as close to land as it is. However, just the fact that I typed those gives you an idea why, in my opinion, it's just not developing beyond this. It's trying though.

NOTE: NOT A PROFESSIONAL FORECAST

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 36.2E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 35.9E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 030636Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 06-12 HOURS WITH FORM-
ATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC
IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM AND WARM SST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

03/0830 UTC 21.2S 35.7E T2.0/2.0 94S -- Southwest Indian

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 35.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 36.1E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A CONVERGENT BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS LLCC HAS MOVED POLEWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS DISRUPTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ENABLING THE LLCC TO PERSIST DESPITE THE INCREASE IN SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE OBSERVED NEGATIVE IMPACT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.

[HURAKAN]

Not hot!!!