SPAC: Tropical Depression 04F (96P POOR)

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Chacor
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SPAC: Tropical Depression 04F (96P POOR)

#1 Postby Chacor » Wed Jan 07, 2009 5:38 am

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 07/0858 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16S 169E AT
070600UTC MOVING EAST AT 05 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST
QUIKSCAT PASS. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELCIUS.

SYETEM REMAINS DISORGANISED BUT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CLOSER TO THE
LLCC. 04F LIES IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS AT 250
HPA. AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES TO THE NORTH OF 04F WITH 25 KNOT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHEASTERLY SURGE IS DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTH.

DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVOURABLE AS 04F GETS CAUGHT UP
BY A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. 04F MAY STILL DEVELOP AS A HIBRID SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS [US/UK/EC] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT FAIRLY
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

JTWC: 96P
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.4S 168.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED ALBEIT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
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Chacor
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#2 Postby Chacor » Thu Jan 08, 2009 4:02 am

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 07/2322 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18S 172E AT
072100UTC AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELCIUS.

OGANISATION IN THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS NOT IMPROVED MARKEDLY WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST OF LLCC. 04F LIES IN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-30 KNOT WINDS AT 250 HPA. AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE
ZONE LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH 20 KNOT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. A SOUTHEASTERLY SURGE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH.

DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNFAVOURABLE AS 04F GETS CAUGHT UP BY A FAST
MOVING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. 04F IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A HIBRID SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS [US/UK/EC] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT FAIRLY
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
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#3 Postby Chacor » Thu Jan 08, 2009 6:25 am

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 08/0916 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F [998HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 20S 174E AT
080600UTC AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELCIUS.

OGANISATION IN THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS NOT IMPROVED MARKEDLY WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST OF LLCC. 04F LIES IN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-30 KNOT WINDS AT 250 HPA. AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE
ZONE LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH 20 KNOT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. A SOUTHEASTERLY SURGE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH.

DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNFAVOURABLE AS 04F GETS CAUGHT UP BY A FAST
MOVING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. 04F IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A HYBRID SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS [US/UK/EC] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT FAIRLY
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
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HurricaneBill
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Depression 04F (96P POOR)

#4 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Jan 08, 2009 6:43 pm

Is the SPAC forecasted to be quiet this season?
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