SIO: DONGO - Extratropical: Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
WTIO30 FMEE 110641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/5/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DONGO)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/11 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8S / 69.1E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 330 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 035 SE: 035 SO: 035 NO: 035
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/11 18 UTC: 24.7S/70.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/01/12 06 UTC: 27.2S/71.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/01/12 18 UTC: 29.9S/72.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/13 06 UTC: 31.9S/73.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/13 18 UTC: 34.0S/76.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/14 06 UTC: 36.2S/80.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5
THE SYSTEM STILL SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN.
NO MAJOR CHANGE HAS COME FROM THE 00Z RUN. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED.
PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS BUT CLOSER TO THE LATEST
ECMWF TRACK. IT IS SLIGHTLY EASTWARDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
SYSTEM IS STILL TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
IT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS STEERING FLOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS START TO DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME WORSE AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE COMING NIGHT.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/5/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DONGO)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/11 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8S / 69.1E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 330 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 035 SE: 035 SO: 035 NO: 035
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/11 18 UTC: 24.7S/70.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/01/12 06 UTC: 27.2S/71.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/01/12 18 UTC: 29.9S/72.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/13 06 UTC: 31.9S/73.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/13 18 UTC: 34.0S/76.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/14 06 UTC: 36.2S/80.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5
THE SYSTEM STILL SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN.
NO MAJOR CHANGE HAS COME FROM THE 00Z RUN. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED.
PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS BUT CLOSER TO THE LATEST
ECMWF TRACK. IT IS SLIGHTLY EASTWARDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
SYSTEM IS STILL TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
IT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS STEERING FLOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS START TO DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME WORSE AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE COMING NIGHT.
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WTIO30 FMEE 111238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/5/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DONGO)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/11 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8S / 69.7E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 170 NO: 170
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/12 00 UTC: 25.6S/70.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2009/01/12 12 UTC: 28.0S/70.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/13 00 UTC: 30.0S/71.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/13 12 UTC: 32.0S/73.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/14 00 UTC: 34.2S/76.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/14 12 UTC: 38.7S/85.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0, CI=3.5
DONGO HAS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND STRUCTURE WITH A BIGGER WIND EXTENSION IN
THE EAST DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PESSURES
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST, AN TO ITS OWN MOVEMENT SPEED.
THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING ON THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS
TRACKING OVER A LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT CAN BE DEPICTED ON THE IMAGERY. THIS WINDSHEAR
SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROCHES
IN THE WEST.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. DONGO SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS
STEERING INFLUENCE DURING THE NEXT DAYS.
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME
SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED. PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL
CONSENSUS BUT CLOSER TO THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/5/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DONGO)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/11 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8S / 69.7E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 170 NO: 170
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/12 00 UTC: 25.6S/70.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2009/01/12 12 UTC: 28.0S/70.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/13 00 UTC: 30.0S/71.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/13 12 UTC: 32.0S/73.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/14 00 UTC: 34.2S/76.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/14 12 UTC: 38.7S/85.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0, CI=3.5
DONGO HAS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND STRUCTURE WITH A BIGGER WIND EXTENSION IN
THE EAST DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PESSURES
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST, AN TO ITS OWN MOVEMENT SPEED.
THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING ON THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS
TRACKING OVER A LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT CAN BE DEPICTED ON THE IMAGERY. THIS WINDSHEAR
SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROCHES
IN THE WEST.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. DONGO SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS
STEERING INFLUENCE DURING THE NEXT DAYS.
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME
SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED. PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL
CONSENSUS BUT CLOSER TO THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
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WTIO30 FMEE 120009
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/5/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DONGO)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/12 AT 0000 UTC :
27.0S / 70.2E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 20 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 400 SO: 180 NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/12 12 UTC: 30.1S/71.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2009/01/13 00 UTC: 33.1S/73.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/13 12 UTC: 36.0S/77.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/14 00 UTC: 39.1S/82.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/14 12 UTC: 42.4S/88.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/15 00 UTC: 46.1S/95.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0, CI=3.5-
DONGO HAS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND STRUCTURE WITH A BIGGER WIND EXTENSION IN
THE EAST DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST, DONGO IS TRACKING OVER A LOWER OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AND THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT INCREASES IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE U
PPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROCHING IN THE WEST.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. DONGO SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS
STEERING INFLUENCE DURING THE NEXT DAYS.
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME
SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT
HOURS.
WTIO30 FMEE 120009
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/5/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DONGO)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/12 AT 0000 UTC :
27.0S / 70.2E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 20 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 400 SO: 180 NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/12 12 UTC: 30.1S/71.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2009/01/13 00 UTC: 33.1S/73.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/13 12 UTC: 36.0S/77.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/14 00 UTC: 39.1S/82.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/14 12 UTC: 42.4S/88.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/15 00 UTC: 46.1S/95.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0, CI=3.5-
DONGO HAS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND STRUCTURE WITH A BIGGER WIND EXTENSION IN
THE EAST DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST, DONGO IS TRACKING OVER A LOWER OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AND THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT INCREASES IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE U
PPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROCHING IN THE WEST.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. DONGO SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS
STEERING INFLUENCE DURING THE NEXT DAYS.
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME
SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT
HOURS.
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WTIO30 FMEE 120616
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/5/20082009
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-DONGO)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/12 AT 0600 UTC :
28.8S / 70.4E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 18 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 350 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 500 SE: 550 SO: 350 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 200 SE: 350 SO: NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/12 18 UTC: 32.3S/72.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2009/01/13 06 UTC: 34.9S/75.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/13 18 UTC: 37.3S/79.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/14 06 UTC: 40.0S/83.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/14 18 UTC: 43.8S/90.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/15 06 UTC: 47.8S/97.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DONGO SHOWS NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE (QUIKSCAT 0100Z) WITH A CENTER
COMPLETLY EXPOSED, ASYMMETRIC WIND STRUCTURE WITH A BIGGER WIND
EXTENSION IN THE EAST DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. DONGO IS TRACKING OVER A LOWER
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
AND THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT INCREASES IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROCHING IN THE WEST.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. DONGO SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS
STEERING INFLUENCE DURING THE NEXT DAYS.
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME
SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED.
WTIO30 FMEE 120616
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/5/20082009
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-DONGO)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/12 AT 0600 UTC :
28.8S / 70.4E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 18 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 350 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 500 SE: 550 SO: 350 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 200 SE: 350 SO: NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/12 18 UTC: 32.3S/72.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2009/01/13 06 UTC: 34.9S/75.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/13 18 UTC: 37.3S/79.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/14 06 UTC: 40.0S/83.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/14 18 UTC: 43.8S/90.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/15 06 UTC: 47.8S/97.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DONGO SHOWS NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE (QUIKSCAT 0100Z) WITH A CENTER
COMPLETLY EXPOSED, ASYMMETRIC WIND STRUCTURE WITH A BIGGER WIND
EXTENSION IN THE EAST DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. DONGO IS TRACKING OVER A LOWER
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
AND THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT INCREASES IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROCHING IN THE WEST.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. DONGO SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS
STEERING INFLUENCE DURING THE NEXT DAYS.
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME
SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED.
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WTIO30 FMEE 130007
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/5/20082009
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-DONGO)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/13 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.0S / 72.2E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 200 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 600 SE: 700 SO: 200 NO: 180
50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/13 12 UTC: 33.7S/74.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2009/01/14 00 UTC: 37.3S/79.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/14 12 UTC: 41.0S/86.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/15 00 UTC: 45.0S/95.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DONGO SHOWS AN EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE. THE CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED, WIND
STRUCTURE IS ASSYMETRIC (QUIKSCAT 1233Z) WITH A LARGER EXTENSION IN THE
SOUTH-EAST DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES
AND THE SPEED MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE LAST
HOURS, A
ND SHOULD KEEP ON ACCELERATING FOR THE COMING RANGES.
DONGO IS TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES, ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. DURING THE NEXT DAYS,
DONGO SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING QUICKLY TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE.
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME
SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED MOTION.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
PLEASE REFER TO THE GMDSS BULLETINS FQIO20 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/5/20082009
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-DONGO)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/13 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.0S / 72.2E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 200 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 600 SE: 700 SO: 200 NO: 180
50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/13 12 UTC: 33.7S/74.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2009/01/14 00 UTC: 37.3S/79.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/14 12 UTC: 41.0S/86.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/15 00 UTC: 45.0S/95.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DONGO SHOWS AN EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE. THE CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED, WIND
STRUCTURE IS ASSYMETRIC (QUIKSCAT 1233Z) WITH A LARGER EXTENSION IN THE
SOUTH-EAST DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES
AND THE SPEED MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE LAST
HOURS, A
ND SHOULD KEEP ON ACCELERATING FOR THE COMING RANGES.
DONGO IS TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES, ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. DURING THE NEXT DAYS,
DONGO SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING QUICKLY TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE.
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME
SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED MOTION.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
PLEASE REFER TO THE GMDSS BULLETINS FQIO20 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
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