SIO: Moderate Tropical Storm Eric

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Re: SIO: Moderate Tropical Storm Eric

#41 Postby Crostorm » Mon Jan 19, 2009 3:15 pm

ZCZC 540
WTIO30 FMEE 191809
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/6/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ERIC)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 1800 UTC :
20.2S / 49.0E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 180 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/20 06 UTC: 22.2S/49.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 25.1S/49.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.STORM.
36H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 28.3S/49.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.STORM

48H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 31.1S/52.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 33.3S/58.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMINGEXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 35.1S/65.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5+
WINDS STRUCTURE IS ASYMMETRIC (GREATER WINDS EXTENSION IN THE EASTERN
SEMI CIRCLE).SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTRED IN THE EAST. BEYOND RANGE 36H, IT SHOULD TURN
SOUTHEASTWARDS AND EVACUATE WITH THE TRANSITING TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM CAN BENEFIT FROM AN INTENSIFICATION WINDOW UP TO RANGE 24
HOURS, AS THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD TEMPORARILY DECREASED AND AN UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD IMPROVE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS A
CONSENSUS.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: Moderate Tropical Storm Eric

#42 Postby Crostorm » Mon Jan 19, 2009 9:12 pm

419
WTIO30 FMEE 200023

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/6/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ERIC)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 49.3E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 350 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 23.9S/49.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 26.6S/49.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 29.4S/50.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 32.1S/53.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 33.2S/56.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 34.4S/59.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5+
ENVISAT SWATH AT 19/1852Z CONFIRMS THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY NEAR 35KT
LOCALLY 40KT.
ERIC HAS MOVED AWAY FROM MALAGASY COASTLINE AND CAN BENEFIT FROM AN
INTENSIFICATION WINDOW UP TO RANGE 24 HOURS, AS THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD
TEMPORARILY DECREASED AND AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD IMPROVE THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW.
NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSENSUS.
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Re: SIO: Moderate Tropical Storm Eric

#43 Postby Crostorm » Mon Jan 19, 2009 9:13 pm

Image
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Re: SIO: Moderate Tropical Storm Eric

#44 Postby Crostorm » Tue Jan 20, 2009 1:26 am

851
WTIO30 FMEE 200624

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/6/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ERIC)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 0600 UTC :
22.8S / 49.1E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 350 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 450 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 24.5S/48.9E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 27.2S/49.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 30.5S/51.6E, MAX WIND=035KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 32.3S/54.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 33.6S/57.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/23 06 UTC: 35.1S/60.0E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T= 2.5-; CI=2.5+
THE RESIDUAL VORTEX OF ERIC IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
RESIDUAL
CONVECTION UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT VENTILATION MOSTLY DUE TO THE UPPER
OUTFLOW COMING FROM CYCLONE FANELE DISTANT LESS THAN 750 KM TO THE
WEST.
ERIC GOES ON MOVING ROUND THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
PRESENT
EASTWARD AN
D WILL WITHDRAW FROM THE TROPICAL DOMAIN BEYOND 24H RANGE WHILE
ACCELERATING AND RECURVING GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY HOWEVER ALLOW IT TO
RE-DEEPEN DESPITE ITS SMALL CIRCULATION AND ITS PRIOR PARTIAL FILLING
UP.=
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#45 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 20, 2009 6:21 am

Image
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#46 Postby Crostorm » Tue Jan 20, 2009 7:34 am

850
WTIO30 FMEE 201219

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/6/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ERIC)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 1200 UTC :
24.3S / 49.3E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 70 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 280 SE: 180 SO: 100 NO: 200

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 450 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 26.7S/49.4E, MAX WIND=035KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 29.3S/50.7E, MAX WIND=035KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 32.5S/54.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 34.0S/59.4E, MAX WIND=040KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 35.7S/63.8E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/23 12 UTC: 37.8S/69.1E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T= 2.5; CI=2.5+
CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY REBUILT OVER THE RESIDUAL VORTEX OF ERIC
UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT VENTILATION MOSTLY DUE TO THE UPPER OUTFLOW COMING
FROM CYCLONE FANELE DISTANT LESS THAN 750 KM TO THE WEST.
ERIC GOES ON MOVING ROUND THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT
EASTWARD AND WILL WITHDRAW FROM THE TROPICAL DOMAIN BEYOND 24H RANGE
WHILE ACCELERATING AND RECURVING GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY HOWEVER ALLOW IT TO
RE-DEEPEN DESP
ITE ITS SMALL CIRCULATION AND ITS PRIOR PARTIAL FILLING UP.


.
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#47 Postby Chacor » Tue Jan 20, 2009 7:43 am

Clearly suffering from Fanele's influence.
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#48 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 20, 2009 8:00 am

Image

Eric has to suffer the success of its twin.
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#49 Postby Chacor » Tue Jan 20, 2009 1:36 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 201832

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/6/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ERIC)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0S / 49.3E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 70 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 100 NO: 250

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 28.1S/49.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 31.0S/52.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 33.2S/56.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 35.0S/62.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T= 2.5; CI=2.5+
CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY REBUILT OVER THE RESIDUAL VORTEX OF ERIC. THE
CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE
TRANSITING COLD FRONT.
ERIC GOES ON MOVING ROUND THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT
EASTWARD AND WILL WITHDRAW FROM THE TROPICAL DOMAIN BEYOND 24H RANGE
WHILE ACCELERATING AND RECURVING GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY HOWEVER ALLOW IT TO
RE-DEEPEN DESP
ITE ITS SMALL CIRCULATION AND ITS PRIOR PARTIAL FILLING UP.
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#50 Postby Crostorm » Tue Jan 20, 2009 8:07 pm

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#51 Postby Crostorm » Wed Jan 21, 2009 1:47 am

461
WTIO30 FMEE 210634

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/6/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ERIC)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/21 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.4S / 50.5E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 120 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 450 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 415 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 30.8S/53.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 33.1S/58.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 34.6S/62.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/23 06 UTC: 36.0S/66.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO UNDERGO THE NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT DUE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM FLOWING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF ERIC WHICH IS ABOUT TO INITIATE ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION PHASE WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WINDS REMAIN
STRONG IN THE
EASTERN SECTOR DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SETTLED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND DUE TO THE CORRELATED FAST MOTION OF
THE SYSTEM.
ERIC GOES ON MOVING ROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL INDEED ACCELERATE NOTICEABLY IN THE NEXT 24H
WHILE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD.


.
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