SIO: Moderate Tropical Storm Eric

[Crostorm]

[wyq614]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0S 58.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 415 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 16/1328Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATE A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SURROUNDED BY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 16/1405Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Doesn't look too bad right now. Here's the 12z high seas warning:

FQIO26 FIMP 161200
1:31:08:01:00

SECURITE

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S), METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
MAURITIUS, FRIDAY 16 JANUARY 2009 AT 1245 UTC.

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.


PART 1 : WARNING NIL.


PART 2 : GENERAL SYNOPSIS, FRIDAY 16 JANUARY 2009 - 1200 UTC.

ITCZ ALONG 14S 52E 12S 60E INTO WEAK LOW NEAR 14S 60E CONTINUES 15S
63E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 06S 51E, 03S 59E

EQUATORIAL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 07S 67E, 02S 71 INTO WEAK LOW NEAR 03S
75E, 03S 80E, 01S 90E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 17S 57E 21S 57E INTO WAVE NEAR 23S 56E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 25S 50E 24S 59E 25S 65E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 20S 68E INTO WAVE NEAR 23S 71E CONTINUES ALONG
25S 77E, 26S 86E, 30S 100E.

HIGH 1024 NEAR 34S 77E.


PART 3 : AREA FORECAST VALID UP TO SATURDAY 17 JANUARY 2009 AT
1200UTC.

8/1: NORTH EASTERLY 10-20 IN SOUTH WEST LOCALLY 25 GUSTY ELSEWHERE
EASTERLY 10-20 IN EAST LOCALLY 25 GUSTY .SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.


8/2: EASTERLY 10-20 LOCALLY GUSTY IN WEST. SOUTH EASTERLY 10-15 IN
EAST. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS
ALONG TROUGH.


8/3: CLOCKWISE 10-15 AROUND LOW NEAR 14S 60E. WESTERLY TO VARIABLE
05-10

IN NORTH WEST LOCALLY 25 GUSTY. EASTERLY TO NORTH EASTERLY 10-15 IN
EAST. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH IN WEST. VISIBILITY MODERATE TO
POOR IN SCATTERED THUNDERY SHOWERS IN WEST.


8/4: SOUTH EASTERLY 10-20 IN EAST . EASTERLY 10-15 LOCALLY 25 GUSTY
IN WEST. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN
ISOLATED THUNDERY SHOWERS IN NORTH WEST. ELSEWHERE GOOD.


EAST 8/5: CLOCKWISE 10 IN EXTREME EAST LOCALLY 20 GUSTY. ELSEWHERE
SOUTHERLY 05-10 IN SOUTH, WESTERLY 05-10 IN NORTH GUSTY. SEA
MODERATE TO ROUGH. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN ISOLATED THUNDERY SHOWERS.


WEST 8/5: NORTHERLY TO NORTH WESTERLY 05-10 IN SOUTH. NORTH
EASTERLY

10-15 IN NORTH, LOCALLY 20 GUSTY. SEA MODERATE. VISIBILITY GOOD.


8/6: SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH.SOUTH WESTERLY TO
WESTERLY 05-10 IN NORTH, LOCALLY 20, GUSTY. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH IN NORTH. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SCATTERED THUNDERY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


8/7: NORTH WESTERLY 05-10 IN SOUTH EAST, ELSEWHERE NORTH EASTERLY
TO NORTHERLY 10-15. SEA MODERATE. VISIBILITY GOOD.


PART 4 : OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 24 HOURS :

LOW NEAR 14S 60E IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A GENERAL SOUTH WESTERLY
DIRECTION INTENSIFYING AT THE SAME TIME.


END=

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 58.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 55.3E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
170236Z QUIKSCAT INDICATED A MORE DEFINED BUT ELONGATED LLCC WITH
15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. THE LLCC IS SITUATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE GOOD OUTFLOW AND
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

507
WTIO30 FMEE 171234 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/6/20082009
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6

2.A POSITION 2009/01/17 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3S / 55.2E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/18 00 UTC: 16.5S/53.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/01/18 12 UTC: 17.9S/51.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/01/19 00 UTC: 19.3S/50.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2009/01/19 12 UTC: 21.0S/49.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 22.3S/49.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 23.7S/49.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5+

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM
, THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE MASCAREGNAS ISLANDS AT ABOUT 330
NM NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME BETTER ORGANISED TODAY.
24 HOURS VARIATION OF PRESSURE AT TROMELIN (61976) ARE IN THE RANGE OF -2
..5/-3 HPA SINCE 09 TU. MSLP AT THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED FROM SURFACE
PRESSURE RECORDED AT TROMELIN CORRECTED FROM THE BAROMETRIC TIDE.

MOTION AND SPEED ARE AN UNCERTAIN: 250/06KT.

SYSTEM IS FED BY A GOOD TRADEWINDS INFLOW, BUT MONSOON FLOW APPEARS
WEAKER AND LESS EFFICIENT (POSSIBLY DISTURB BY THE NORTHERN TIP OF
MADAGASCAR). WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, SPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART WITH SOME NICE
CIRRUS EXPENSION (MORE
LIMITED IN THE SOUTHERN PART). AS THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM SST IN THE
RANGE OF 29oC, CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. ON THE 17/00Z RUN, ECMWF AND ALADIN DEVELOP STRONGLY THE
SYSTEM, NOGAPS AND ARPEGE (GLOBAL FRENCH MODEL) MAINTAIN A WEAK LOW AND
GFS AND UKMO DO NOT MAINTAIN THE INITIAL CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND, THE PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON AN
ECMWF/ ALADIN CONSENSUS, BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTICE THAT THERE IS A
LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK IS THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
PRESSURE FIELD LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.

CURRENT INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

Loop
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 161930.GIF

[Crostorm]

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4S 54.3E TO 17.2S 51.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 171800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 53.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S
55.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 53.8E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM, WHILE A 17/1627Z
SSMI/S PASS INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED CLOSER TO AND HAS
BEGUN WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD

[HURAKAN]

TPXS10 PGTW 171758

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93S (E OF MADAGASCAR)

B. 17/1730Z

C. 15.4S

D. 53.7E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/1354Z 15.6S 55.0E SSMS
17/1426Z 15.6S 54.7E WIND
17/1440Z 15.5S 54.4E SSMI
17/1512Z 15.4S 54.5E SSMI

SMITH

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Tropical Disturbance 06R:

WTIO30 FMEE 180026

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/6/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6

2.A POSITION 2009/01/18 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 52.6E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST
)
MOVEMENT : WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/18 12 UTC: 16.2S/51.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/01/19 00 UTC: 17.6S/50.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/01/19 12 UTC: 19.4S/49.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 21.1S/49.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 23.7S/49.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 26.4S/50.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM, HAS PROGRESSIVELY
BECOME BETTER ORGANISED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DUILDING IN THE SOUTH PART
OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.

SYSTEM IS FED BY A GOOD TRADEWINDS INFLOW, BUT MONSOON FLOW APPEARS
WEAKER AND LESS EFFICIENT (POSSIBLY DISTURB BY THE NORTHERN TIP OF
MADAGASCAR). WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, SPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART WITH SOME NICE
CIRRUS EXPENSION (MORE
LIMITED IN THE SOUTHERN PART). AS THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM SST IN THE
RANGE OF 29oC, CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK : THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEEPENING TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 35 knots - 996 mb

[HURAKAN]